Home 2020 Elections Election Day 2020 Open Thread: Final Predictions; Which Races to Focus On;...

Election Day 2020 Open Thread: Final Predictions; Which Races to Focus On; What Are You Seeing/Hearing Out There?

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If you haven’t voted already, polls in Virginia are open from 6 am to 7 pm today, as usual, which gives you 13 hours to exercise one of your most precious rights (and duties, IMHO) as an American – voting. Please feel free to use this as an open thread to discuss what you’re seeing and hearing out there today. Thanks.

Note that, so far, around 2.7 million Virginians have voted — in person and by mail. That represents 69% of Virginia’s entire 2016 final vote count (which was 3,984,631). This election, it’s highly likely that turnout will be higher than 2016, which hopefully will help Democrats on balance (under the “when we vote, we win” theory). I’ll definitely be following turnout reports throughout the day, and would appreciate it if you could comment with whatever you’re seeing/hearing.

So which races are you most interested in? Personally, in addition to the presidential and U.S. Senate races – both of which I’m assuming will go handily for the “blue team” – I’m focused on the VA05 race between Dr. Cameron Webb and Bob Good; the VA02 rematch of former Rep. Scott Taylor (R) and Rep. Elaine Luria (D); the hotly contested VA07 election between Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) and Nick Freitas (R); and to an extent the longshot attempt by Democrat Qasim Rashid to win VA01. I’m also very interested in the outcome of the Richmond and Virginia Beach mayoral races. And, outside of Virginia, obviously I’m going to be focused on the key swing states – Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Texas, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, etc. How about you?

By the way, final predictions for Virginia are:

  1. FiveThirtyEight.com: 99% chance of Biden winning Virginia (by about 12 points); >99% chance of Sen. Warner winning reelection (by about 18 points); in the “Deluxe” model, 87% chance of Rep. Elaine Luria being reelected in VA02 (by a 52.7%-44.9% margin); 49% chance of Dr. Cameron Webb winning VA05 (right now, they’ve got Webb at 49.9% of the vote); 79% chance of Rep. Abigail Spanberger being reelected in VA07 (by a 53.2%-46.8% margin). Overall, FiveThirtyEight has Joe Biden with an 89% chance of winning the Electoral College majority.
  2. The Economist model: >99% chance of Biden winning Virginia (by about 11.6 points); also >99% chance of Sen. Mark Warner being reelected (by about 16 points); 93% chance of Rep. Elaine Luria winning reelection in VA02 (with 54% of the vote); 35% chance of Dr. Cameron Webb winning VA05 (with Webb at 48.8% of the vote); 84% chance of Rep. Abigail Spanberger winning reelection in VA07 (with 52.7% of the vote). Overall, The Economist model has Joe Biden with a 96% chance of winning the Electoral College majority.
  3. The Cook Political Report: Virginia “Likely Democrat” for President; Sen. Mark Warner “Solid D”; Rep. Elaine Luria (D-VA02) and Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA07) both “Lean Democratic”; Dr. Cameron Webb a “Toss Up” in VA05
  4. The UVA Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Virginia “Likely D” for President; “Safe D” for U.S. Senate; Reps. Elaine Luria (D-VA02) and Abigail Spanberger (D-VA07) each “Leans Democratic”; VA05 “Leans GOP.” Overall, the “Crystal Ball” has Biden with 321 EVs safe/likely/lean and Trump at 217 EVs safe/likely/lean.
  5. Chaz Nuttycombe: Virginia “Safe D” for President; “Safe D” for U.S. Senate; “Likely D” for VA02; “Tilt D” for VA05; “Lean D” for VA07. Overall, Nuttycombe has it at 389 Biden – 149 Trump in the Electoral College; 50 D – 48 R in the Senate (two #GASEN runoffs in January); 247 D – 188 R in the House.
  6. Rachel Bitecofer’s “The Cycle”: 99% chance of Biden winning Virginia; 99% chance of Sen. Warner winning; VA02 and V07 are “Holds,” while VA05 is in the “Toss Ups” category. Overall, Bitecofer has Biden with a 93.4% chance of winning the Electoral College — 210 EVs as “Safe” for Biden, another 59 as “Very Likely,” and another 65 as “Likely,” with 54 as “Tossup.”

Oh, and check out IWillVote.com for any questions about voting in Virginia. And, of course, make sure you vote Democratic up and down the ballot, IN PERSON, if you haven’t voted already! Thanks.