Monmouth Poll of #VAGOV Race: Terry McAuliffe Up Between 3 and 7 Points Over Glenn Youngkin, With 36 Days Until 11/2

Monmouth University is out with a new poll of the Virginia governor’s race; see below for takeaways and toplines.  Note that Monmouth’s last poll of the Virginia governor’s race, on August 31, had the race at McAuliffe 47%-Youngkin 42%; Ayala 43%-Sears 42%; Herring 45%-Miyares 43%. So this poll is better/worse than that one.

• Terry McAuliffe up over Glenn Youngkin by 5 points among Registered Voters (RVs), 48%-43%. That’s the same margin as back on August 31.
• McAuliffe’s lead ranges from 3 points to 7 points, depending on the electoral model Monmouth uses. “Youngkin does better when more low-propensity voters are included in the mix. Specifically, McAuliffe has a lead among voters who have cast ballots in every general election since 2016 (51% to 44%) and those who participated in 4 of the last 5 general elections (49% to 43%). Among those who voted in only 2 or 3 elections and are considered less reliable voters, the race is much closer (44% for McAuliffe and 42% for Youngkin).”
• “When the potential electorate is limited to voters who cast ballots in the 2017 gubernatorial election, McAuliffe holds a 51% to 43% margin, which is nearly identical to the winning Democratic margin that year.”
• “Youngkin does have an advantage among voters who describe themselves as being more enthusiastic about this year’s race compared to past gubernatorial elections. The Republican nominee has a 57% to 40% lead among this group, which makes up 33% of all registered voters.”
• “Looking at regional support, McAuliffe enjoys a large advantage in Northern Virginia (58% to 29%) and the eastern Tidewater region (56% to 34%). The Democrat’s 29-point NoVa lead is identical to his 29-point lead there in August (56% to 27%) while his 22-point Tidewater lead is up from 13 points (50% to 37%). Youngkin has a 24-point lead in western Virginia (58% to 34%), which is similar to his 30-point lead there last month (61% to 31%). Support in the central part of the commonwealth along the I-95 corridor has flipped. Youngkin holds a 51% to 40% edge in this region, whereas McAuliffe had a 53% to 43% lead there in August. Four years ago, incumbent Gov. Ralph Northam won NoVa by 35 points (67% to 32%), the Tidewater area by 13 points (56% to 43%) and the central region by 9 points (54% to 45%), while losing western Virginia by 23 points (38% to 61%).”
• The most important issues for Virginia voters are: 1) “Jobs and the economy” (39%); 2) “The COVID pandemic” (32%); 3) “Education and schools” (31%); 4) “Taxes” (20%), “Police Issues” (20%) and “Abortion” (20%). McAuliffe has a 41%-28% advantage among registered voters on handling the COVID pandemic, while the two candidates are basically tied on jobs/economy. McAuliffe has a 4-point edge on education/schools, while Youngkin has 39%-33% advantage on police/law enforcement. And McAuliffe has an 8-point advantage (40%-32%) on abortion.
• There are big partisan differences on issues importance. For instance, 44% of Dems rank the COVID pandemic #1 or #2, compared to just 19% of Rs. And 25% of Dems rate race relations #1 or #2, compared to just 8% of Republicans. Check out the cross-tabs here for more detailed information on issues…
• 57% of voters say they plan to vote in-person on election day, with 24% saying in-person/early and 9% by mail ballot.