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Tomorrow night we’ll get the results from several important primaries, including here in Virginia. At that point, we’ll know what the exact matchups will be in districts like VA01, VA02 and VA05. And of course, candidate quality matters; for instance, in VA02, having former Rep. Elaine Luria (D-VA02) facing Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-VA02) will be a great matchup for Democrats, given Luria’s name ID, fundraising abilities, etc. But even before we know all the nominees, it’s possible to take a stab at predictions for November – which is what elections analyst/prognosticator G. Elliott Morris has put out this morning over at FiftyPlusOne. See below for a few highlights in general, plus the specifics for Virginia’s U.S. House and U.S. Senate races.
- As G. Elliott Morris writes, “This forecast is the intellectual successor to the congressional forecasting model I built at FiveThirtyEight in 2024 — which was the most accurate of any statistical forecast model last cycle and even beat the prediction markets. Our forecast combines polls, district- and state-level fundraising and past election returns, candidate-level data, and ratings from expert race-raters to produce a probability that either major party will win either chamber this November…If you would like to learn more about how the model works, you can find a methodology explainer here.”
- FiftyPlusOne has Democrats’ odds of winning the US House as 85/100 and Democrats’ odds of winning the US Senate at 55/100.
- In Virginia specifically, the model has Democrats with a 99%+ chance of holding Mark Warner’s US Senate seat; a 60% chance (“Toss-Up”) of winning VA01; an 87% chance (“Likely Dem”) of winning VA02; a 99%+ chance (“Safe Dem”) of winning VA03, VA04, VA07, VA08, VA10 and VA11; a 19% chance (“Likely Rep”) of winning VA05; and a 1% or lower chance (“Safe Rep”) of winning VA06 or VA09.
- So if that actually comes to pass, Virginia’s U.S. House delegation will go from its current 6D-5R to 8D-3R; but let’s hope Tom Perriello can pull the upset in VA05, in which case we’d go to 9D-2R, not much different than the 10D-1R map we would have had with redistricting.
These predictions seem mostly about right to me at this point, a bit optimistic for Dems; but again, we’ll see for sure who the nominees are in each district (the expected Democratic nominees in VA01, VA02 and VA05 are Shannon Taylor, Elaine Luria and Tom Perriello, respectively), and also how they do in their primaries in terms of turnout and margin of victory. See below for graphics on the odds of winning the US House and US Senate, plus the Virginia-specific map. What do you think? (I’d say 60% Dem is a bit optimistic for VA01; I’d put that one at a 40% or at best 50% chance for Dems at this point; I’d put VA02 slightly lower than 87%, but at least a 75% shot for Luria; I’d actually put VA05 a bit higher than 19%, assuming a strong “blue wave” and the combination of a pathetic Republican extremist nominee in John McGuire plus an excellent Democratic nominee in Tom Perriello)
