Home 2021 Elections With One Week to Go, Virginia Saw 44k Vote Early/In-Person Monday, a...

With One Week to Go, Virginia Saw 44k Vote Early/In-Person Monday, a New Daily High This Election; TargetSmart Estimates 54.9% Dem, 30.3% GOP So Far…

"NOVA shows no signs of slowing down this week"

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Where do things stand in terms of early voting as of yesterday’s data? See below for some graphics, tweets by Sam Shirazi, and a few takeaways:

  • Statewide, Monday saw 44,303 Virginians voting early/in-person, a new daily high this election. That brings the total to 506,287 having voted early/in-person so far, in addition to 218,678 who have voted by mail. Last year, a total of 1.8 million voted early/in-person, plus 1.0 million by mail.
  • By CD, early/in-person voting so far goes like this: VA01 (58,435), VA07 (56,706), VA10 (54,995), VA04 (52,956), VA05 (46,537), VA06 (44,986), VA08 (44,190), VA02 (41,850), VA11 (39,572), VA03 (33,847), VA09 (32,213)
  • By CD, early/by-mail voting so far goes like this: VA08 (26,456), VA10 (25,841), VA11 (25,346), VA07 (23,049), VA01 (20,595), VA02 (18,038), VA03 (17,407), VA05 (17,292), VA04 (16,549), VA06 (16,048), VA09 (12,047)
  • By CD, TOTAL early voting so far goes like this: VA10 (101,879), VA07 (94,200), VA08 (93,777), VA01 (90,885), VA11 (86,621), VA04 (81,617), VA05 (74,261), VA02 (71,548), VA06 (69,673), VA03 (62,527), VA09 (50,157).
  • By percentage, the “blue” CDs are at about 48.6% of total early voting; the “red” CDs at 32.5%; the “purple” CDs at 18.9%.
  • This compares to “TargetSmart,” which currently estimates/models that 54.9% of early/absentee votes are Democratic, 30.3% are Republican and 14.8% are “unaffiliated.”
  • By region, early voting so far goes as follows: Capital Region 137.1 per 1,000 registered voters; Northern Virginia 131.4 per 1,000 registered voters; Northern Neck/Middle Peninsula 131.3 per 1,000 registered voters; Virginia overall 121.9 per 1,000 registered voters; Piedmont 121.9 per 1,000 registered voters; Hampton Roads 118.7 per 1,000 registered voters; Valley of Virginia 117.0 per 1,000 registered voters; Southside Virginia 102.5 per 1,000 registered voters; Southwest Virginia 91.6 per 1,000 registered voters
  • “Based on my observation of early vote (with 5 days still left), my guess is that turnout will at least match 2017. Keep in mind that means more votes total because universe of voters is larger, I think high turnout of Trump era will continue as elections still very polarized” – Sam Shirazi
  • Shirazi’s turnout prediction compares to longtime Arlington elections guru Frank O’Leary, who projects 2.65-2.9 million will turn out, compared to 2.6 million in 2017.
  • “Good point here about GOP being strong with early voting in its traditional ancestral heartlands of Richmond suburbs and Shenandoah Valley But the ‘Trumpy’ parts of VA in SW and Southside have not kept up.” – Sam Shirazi
  • “How massive was Arlington’s ‘weekend of voting?’ Nearly 6% of the total 2017 vote was cast in person here, with nearly 4500 people. It already had very high levels of early voting. Almost 1500 people voting Sunday is all the more impressive bc voting was only open for few hours”- Sam Shirazi
  • “So overall we know that early voting did not slow down on Monday. It looks like Democrats GOTV events are working in areas that are little further behind rest of VA. For that reason, VP is coming to Hampton Roads this week. Should be a great final week of early voting!”- Sam Shirazi
  • “Bright spot for Republicans still is Hanover County which continues to see very solid voting with 763 in person on Monday. But these gains drowned out by really lagging numbers in SW VA especially as NOVA ramps up voting.” – Sam Shirazi
  • “Prince William County also saw very solid voting almost matching weekend with nearly 2000 people voting in person Alexandria and Loudoun also saw solid days. NOVA shows no signs of slowing down this week.” – Sam Shirazi

 

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