Video: Attorney and Virginia Political Guru Sam Shirazi Runs Through New Districts and What They Mean For Dems’ Chances of Winning in 2022 and 2023

See below for video of Arlington-based attorney Sam Shirazi, who “has been studying redistricting issues from the last and now this recent drawing of lines,” speaking to the Arlington Democrats about “[n]ewly-designed district lines for House of Delegates, State Senate and Congress” and what they might mean for “strategy in our work to win and defend Democratic seats in Virginia.” Shirazi does an excellent job running through all this, with the main conclusions as follows:

• We still don’t know if there will be House of Delegates elections this year, but it’s really up to the courts, and it could be months before we get an answer.
• The key US House races this year are in VA02 (incumbent Rep. Elaine Luria, Republican frontrunner Jennifer Kiggans, “Tossup” according to Sam Shirazi) and VA07 (incumbent Rep. Abigail Spanberger, Republican frontrunners Sen. Bryce Reeves and PW County Supervisor Yesli Vega,  “Slight Dem Advantage” according to Sam Shirazi). If Democrats can hold both of these districts, it’s a very good sign for Democrats to keep their slim majority in the US House of Representatives.
• Following redistricting, there are 49 seats in the House of Delegates which Joe Biden won by at least 15 points, and 48 seats won by Terry McAuliffe in 2013. Democrats need to get at least 50 for power sharing, and 51 for the majority, which  is certainly possible but “will not be easy.”
• In the State Senate, where elections will be held in 2023, following redistricting there are now 19 seats which Biden won by at least 20 points – so those are totally safe. There are 20 seats won by McAuliffe in 2013, which would get Democrats to a tie, but…two of those districts are held by strong Republican incumbents (Siobhan Dunnavant and Jill Vogel), so getting to a majority “will not be easy.” Keep in mind, as Sam Shirazi stressed, that holding the State Senate is really crucial for Democrats, so we’re going to have to leave it all on the field next year in our attempt to maintain the Democratic majority here…or else, Youngkin and company could really run wild and do tremendous damage to Virginia. Let’s make sure that does NOT happen!