1Q2023 Virginia Campaign Finance Numbers Come Out on Monday. Here Are Some Baselines to Compare Them Against.

This Monday, campaign finance numbers will come out for the first quarter of 2023 for Virginia State Senate and House of Delegates candidates, as well as for local candidates. This is an important reporting period, as it will show which candidates are the most financially competitive/viable heading into early voting, which starts on May 5 for the primaries on June 20.

So when the numbers come out, what baselines should we use in thinking about whether the numbers for a particular candidate are good, bad, or mediocre? Here are a few thoughts:

First, consider whether a candidate is an incumbent or a challenger, which office they’re seeking, and of course whether or not they’re in a competitive primary. If they’re incumbent, you’d generally expect that they’d have more money to start off with, and probably be able to raise more, than their primary opponent(s).

Second, consider how many people are in the district (e.g., a State Senate is 2 1/2 times bigger than a House of Delegates district) or jurisdiction (e.g., Fairfax County at-large is enormous, while many rural counties are very small in terms of population) the candidates are running in; obviously, all else being equal, a larger jurisdiction should imply more money is needed to communicate with voters.

Third, as a general rule of thumb, take a look at what candidates for similar offices raised in the first quarter of 2019 –  a comparable, off/odd-year election year. For instance:

• The Arlington/Falls Church Commonwealth’s Attorney race saw the incumbent (Theo Stamos) raising $100,404, compared to the challenger (Parisa Dehghani-Tafti)’s $107,807. We’ll see how Dehghani-Tafti (now the incumbent) and Josh Katcher (the challenger) do this time around. We’ll also see how Democratic Commonwealth’s Attorney candidates in competitive primaries against incumbents do in Fairfax County and Loudoun County.
• A Fairfax County Board of Supervisors race in a single “magisterial district” saw Democratic candidates in competitive primaries raising anywhere from just a few thousand dollars to $70,000, with most in the middle of that range. We’ll see how the candidates do this time around in Mason District, Springfield District, Mt. Vernon District, etc.
• Democratic House of Delegates primary candidates in 2019 raised anywhere from just a few hundred dollars to $30k or more. Democratic House of Delegates incumbents in highly competitive/”purple” districts raised on the order of $63k (Del. Wendy Gooditis), $71k (Del. Danica Roem), $66k (Del. Elizabeth Guzman), etc. And Democratic House of Delegates challengers in competitive districts raised on the order of $36k (Nancy Guy), $34k (Sheila Bynum-Coleman), $124k (Dan Helmer), $73k (Joshua Cole), $32k (Karen Mallard), etc. So…over $100k is great for a serious House of Delegates candidate, while over $50k is very strong.
• Democratic State Senate primary candidates in 2019 in competitive districts raised $53k (Eileen Bedell), $57k (Ghazala Hashmi), $27k (Veena Lothe), $179k (Debra Rodman), $100k (Cheryl Turpin), $14k (Susan Hippen), etc. In deep-blue Senate districts with competitive Democratic primaries against incumbents, candidates raised $20k (Nicole Merlene running against Sen. Barbara Favola, who raised $64k), $58k (Yasmine Taeb running against Sen. Dick Saslaw, who raised $186k), etc. So…over $100k seems strong for a serious State Senate candidate in 1Q23, while over $200k would be really superb.

This time around, it will be interesting to see how candidates do some key Democratic primaries, including the ones mentioned above, as well as:

• Del. Sally Hudson vs. Sen. Creigh Deeds in SD11
• Former Del. Lashrecse Aird vs. Sen. Joe Morrissey in SD13
• Sen. Louise Lucas vs. Sen. Lionell Spruill in SD18
• Norfolk Councilwoman Andria McClellan vs. Del. Angelia Williams Graves in SD21
• Joel Griffin vs. Ben Litchfield in SD27
• Del. Elizabeth Guzman vs. Sen. Jeremy McPike in SD29
• Zach Cummings vs. Russet Perry in SD31
• Former Del. Ibraheem Samirah vs. Del. Suhas Subramanyam in SD32
• Former Del. Hala Ayala vs. former Del. Jennifer Carroll Foy in SD33
• Heidi Drauschak vs. Sen. Dave Marsden in SD35
• Fairfax School Board member Stella Pekarsky vs. Sen. George Barker in SD36
• Saddam Salim vs. Erika Yalowitz vs. Sen. Chap Petersen in SD37
• Adele McClure vs. Kevin Saucedo-Broach in HD02
• Mary Barthelson vs. Paul Berry vs. Shyamali Hauth vs. Karen Keys-Gamarra in HD07
• Fairfax County School Board member Laura Jane Cohen vs. Eric Schmidt vs. Henri Thompson in HD15
• Rozia Henson vs. Makya Little vs. Natalie Shorter in HD19
• Sirisha Kompalli vs. Sreedhar Nagireddi vs. Kannan Srinivasan in HD26
• Bellamy Brown vs. Katrina Callsen vs. Dave Norris in HD54
• Amy Laufer vs. Kellen Squire in HD55
• Susanna Gibson vs. Bob Shippee in HD57
• Rae Cousins vs. Ann Lambert vs. Richard Walker in HD79
• Destiny Bolling vs. John Dantzler in HD80
• Del. Delores McQuinn vs. Terrence Walker in HD81
• Kimberly Pope Adams vs. Victor McKenzie vs. Branden Riley in HD82
• Former Del. Nadarius Clark vs. Kim Sudderth in HD92
• Former Del. Alex Askew vs. Rick James in HD95
• Del. Kelly Convirs-Fowler vs. Susan Hippen vs. Brandon Hutchins vs. Sean Monteiro in HD96