Home 2023 Elections New VPAP Analysis of 2021, 2022 Elections Implies “State Senate would be...

New VPAP Analysis of 2021, 2022 Elections Implies “State Senate would be 21-19 Dem and [the] House of Delegates [would be] 50-50″…Waaaayyy Too Close for Comfort!

This election will determine whether Virginia goes lurching backwards on abortion rights and everything else, so get involved!


Courtesy of VPAP, see below for the “VPAP Index,” which “ranks each of Virginia’s state legislative and congressional districts based on the average of their estimated performance in the 2021 gubernatorial elections and the reallocated 2022 congressional elections.”  Here are a few highlights and thoughts on the “VPAP Index”:

  • Virginia House of Delegates districts which are listed as competitive are: HD22 (Democrat Travis Nembhard vs. Republican Ian Lovejoy in a +4.9R district), HD89 (Democrat Karen Jenkins vs. Republican Baxter Ennis – yeah, THIS guy, who’s about as extreme as possible – in a +3.2R district), HD57 (Democrat Susanna Gibson vs. Republican David Owen in a +1.1R district), HD21 (Democrat Josh Thomas vs. Republican John Stirrup – yeah, this guy – in a +0.8R district), HD82 (Democrat Kimberly Pope Adams vs. Republican incumbent Del. Kim Taylor in a +0.5R district), HD97 (Democrat Michael Feggans vs. Republican incumbent Del. Karen Greenhalgh in a +1.5D district), HD65 (Democrat Joshua Cole vs. Republican Lee Peters in a +3.0D district)
  • There are also a bunch of Virginia House of Delegates districts rated as “Leans Republican” (17 of those) and “Leans Democratic (11 of those)…although many of the ones they list as “leans” (e.g., Democratic Delegates Dan Helmer, Sam Rasoul, Shelly Simonds, Michelle Maldonado, Kelly Fowler, etc.) are actually safe for the most part.
  •  Virginia State Senate districts which are listed as competitive are: SD27 (Democrat Joel Griffin vs. Republican Tara Durant and Independent Monica Gary in a +3.2R district), SD17 (Democrat Clint Jenkins vs. Republican Emily Brewer in a +2.1R district), SD24 (Democratic incumbent Sen. Monty Mason vs. Republican Danny Diggs in a +1.2R district), SD31 (Democrat Russet Perry vs. Republican Juan Pablo Segura – yeah, this guy spewing the unhinged, far-right word salad – in a +2.5D district).
  • Several State Senate districts are listed as “Leans Republican” — SD19 (Democrat Myra Payne vs. Republican Christie New Craig in a +19.4R district), SD12 (Democrat Natan McKenzie vs. Republican Glen Sturtevant and write-in incumbent Republican Sen. Amanda Chase in a +11.2R district), SD20 (Democrat Victoria Luevanos vs. Republican incumbent Sen. Bill DeSteph in a +10.2R district), SD4 (Democrat Trish White-Boyd vs. Republican incumbent Sen. Dave Suetterlein in a +9.2R district) or “Leans Democratic” — SD30 (Democrat Danica Roem vs. Republican Bill Woolf in a +5.0D district), SD16 (Democrat Schuyler VanValkenburg vs. Republican incumbent Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant in a +8.2D district), SD22 (Democratic incumbent Sen. Aaron Rouse vs. Republican Kevin Adams – yeah, this guy – in a +9.4D district), SD29 (Democratic incumbent Sen. Jeremy McPike vs. Republican Nikki Rattray Baldwin in a +15.2D district), SD13 (Democrat Lashrecse Aird vs. Republican Eric Ditri in a +16.1D district). However, most of these are actually safe, more or less (a few exceptions include (possibly) SD12 *if* Amanda Chase pulls a significant % of Republican votes from Glen Sturtevant; SD30 (although this one’s likely for Danica Roem); SD16 (Schuyler VanValkenburg is the favorite, but Siobhan Dunnavant is the incumbent and it’s not a solid-blue district); etc.
  • Regarding Chaz Nuttycombe‘s comments about how it’s “pretty possible there’ll be a tie in the House,” let’s avoid this scenario if at all possible; 51 or more Democrats in the HoD, and Speaker Don Scott, would be a MUCH better outcome!
  • Most likely, it’s going to be really close; as Sam Shirazi points out, based on the “VPAP Index,” the “State Senate would be 21-19 Dem and [the] House of Delegates [would be] 50-50.” Waaaayyy too close for comfort, in other words…so make sure you volunteer, donate and – of course – VOTE Democratic up and down the ballot (and remind everyone you know to do the same)!



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