The Latest Virginia Early Voting Estimates by L2 Political Mostly Look Good for Democrats in Key Districts; Now We’ve Got to Keep It Going Through Election Day!

See below for the latest early vote numbers for some key/competitive races in Virginia, courtesy of L2 Political. Keep in mind that the early vote tends to skew Democratic, but that this year, Glenn Youngkin has invested a LOT of resources into convincing Republicans to also vote early, despite years of demonization by Donald Trump et al of absentee voting, mail ballots, drop boxes, etc, etc.  As a result, it DOES seem that Republicans have made a bit of headway in cutting the Democrats’ early vote margins, although there’s some question as to whether that’s more about the usual Republican likely voters simply voting earlier than they usually would, or is it NEW Republican voters coming out? We don’t really know the answer to that question yet.

With that, here are the numbers, with a few quick takeaways being:

• Overall, the Virginia early vote is estimated by L2 Political at 59.6% D-35.4% R, which is strong…although again, keep in mind that the early vote SHOULD be strong for Democrats, while the Election Day vote itself will almost certainly be stronger for Republicans. Which is why Democrats need to rack it up in early voting!
• The early vote is looking very strong (62.8% D-32.3% R) for Democrats in SD31, where Russet Perry (D) faces Juan Pablo Segura (R) in a key race that could very well determine control of the State Senate.
• SD16, where Schuyler VanValkenburg (D) faces incumbent Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant (R), also looks good (59.6% D-36.3% R) for Democrats. This is a must-win (and SHOULD-win) district for Democrats; let’s do it!
• SD24, where incumbent Sen. Monty Mason (D) is in a tight race with Danny Diggs (R), the early vote numbers don’t look quite as good (50.8% D-43.8% R) for Democrats, although Mason does lead by about 7 points. Still, I’d like to see a bigger lead in the early vote for Sen. Mason at this point.
• In SD17, where Clint Jenkins (D) is in a tight race with Emily Brewer (R), the early vote numbers (52.6% D-42.1% R) look pretty good for Jenkins. Let’s hope it’s enough!
• In SD27, where Joel Griffin (D) is in a close race against Tara Durant (R) and Monica Gary (I), the early vote numbers look decent (51.1% D-43.6% R) for Dems. In the end, this is going to be VERY close, so make sure you vote!
• In SD30, where Danica Roem (D) is facing off against Bill Woolf (R), the early vote numbers look strong (55.6% D-39.3% R) for Democrats. Let’s just make sure we keep that up all the way through early voting and on to election day itself!
• In HD41, where Lily Franklin (D) faces Chris Obenshain (R), the early vote numbers are looking good (57.5% D-36.7% R) for Democrats. Go Franklin!
• In HD30, where Rob Banse (D) faces insurrectionist/extremist Geary Higgins (R), the early vote numbers are looking great (59.8% D-35.3% R) so far for Democrats. Go Banse!
• In HD22, where Travis Nembhard (D) faces Ian Lovejoy (R), the early vote numbers look solid (54.3% D-41.3% R) for Democrats. Let’s keep it up  and elect Nembhard on 11/7!
• In HD21, where Josh Thomas (D) faces John Stirrup (R), the early vote numbers are fairly solid (52.7% D-42.7% R) for Democrats, but I’d like to see them even better, so make sure you vote Thomas on or before 11/7!
• In HD57, where Susanna Gibson (D) faces David Owen (R), the early vote numbers look strong (55.9% D-39.9% R) for Democrats; let’s keep that going!
• In HD65, where Joshua Cole (D) faces Lee Peters (R), the early vote numbers look strong (55.3% D-39.6% R) for Dems; go Cole!
• In HD71, where Jessica Anderson (D) faces incumbent Del. Amanda Batten (R), the early vote numbers look solid (52.9% D- 42.5% R) for Dems; let’s keep that going through election day.
• In HD82, where Kimberly Pope Adams (D) faces incumbent Del. Kim Taylor (R), the early vote numbers look GREAT (67.1% D-27.2% R) for Democrats. If these are accurate (and honestly, they seem high for the Dem % and low for the R %), Adams is in superb shape, but let’s not take anything for granted – keep VOTING!
• In HD89, where Karen Jenkins (D) faces faaaar-right Baxter Ennis (R), the early vote numbers look good (53.9% D-41.3% R) for Democrats, but let’s not take our foot of the accelerator on this one until polls close at 7 pm on 11/7!
• In HD97, a must-win district for Democrats, where Michael Feggans (D) faces incumbent Del. Karen Greenhalgh (R), the early vote numbers look decent (52.4% D-41.7% R) for Democrats, but could be even stronger…and hopefully will be in coming days. Make sure you vote for Feggans, who is an *excellent* candidate.