Very good job by Sam Shirazi on Pod Virginia, running through the most competitive primaries for Congress coming up on June 18 in Virginia. I agree with most of Shirazi’s analysis, including that:
- VA02 is a “purple” district, narrowly won by Joe Biden in 2020, where almost certainly Democrat Missy Cotter Smasal will be facing incumbent Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-VA02) in November, and where Smasal certainly has a shot if Biden can carry the district again.
- VA05 leans Republican for November (I’d actually say it’s LIKELY Republian, given that even neo-Confederate Corey Stewart beat Tim Kaine here in 2018, that Bob Good won reelection in 2022 by 15+ points, etc.), so the real action is with the wild Republican primary between far-right-extremist Rep. Bob Good (R-VA05) and challenger John McGuire, a 100% Trump loyalist who was literally outside the US Capitol with the pro-Trump mob on January 6, 2021. The big issues here: 1) Good endorsed Ron DeSantis over Trump, and now Trump’s people want Good to lose; 2) Good played a major role in ousting Kevin McCarthy as Speaker, and now McCarthy and his allies (e.g., Jen Kiggans) want Good to lose.
- VA07 leans Democratic for November, but definitely isn’t safe, given that Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA07) only won in November 2022 by 4.6 points (over far-right extremist Yesli Vega, who actually argued that women who are raped are less likely to get pregnant – wuuuuut?!?). According to Sam Shirazi, the Democratic primary here leans towards Eugene Vindman, given that: 1) he has WAYYYY more money than any of his challengers; 2) he’s more of a unique, outsider, national-profile candidate with an extensive national security background and strong anti-Trump credentials, while the rest of the field is pretty much splintered between several local candidates (former Del. Elizabeth Guzman, Del. Briana Sewell, Prince William County Supervisor Margaret Angela Franklin, Prince William County Supervisor Andrea Bailey) who are likely to split the not-Vindman vote.
- VA10, where Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D-VA10) is retiring for unfortunate health reasons, is likely Democratic for November, and there’s a VERY crowded field of Democratic candidates – State Sen. Jennifer Boysko, State Sen. Suhas Subramanyam, former VA Speaker Eileen Filler-Corn, Del. Dan Helmer, Del. Michelle Maldonado, Del. David Reid, former VA Education Secretary Atif Qarni, Travis Nembhard, Krystle Kaul, Mark Leighton) vying for the nomination to succeed her. Right now, it’s very hard to say who will win, but I agree with Sam Shirazi that those with more of a base in Loudoun County – the heart of VA10 – probably have an advantage (albeit not an overwhelming one by any means; this primary is definitely hard to figure out!).
- VA11, where Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-VA11) faces (pending final certification of petition signatures) Ahsan Nasar, who – as Sam Shirazi correctly puts it – “is running to Connolly’s left on the war in Gaza.” Also, I agree with Shirazi that “Connolly should be safe, but would be only Dem member from VA getting a challenge.”
- Finally, Sen. Tim Kaine is highly likely to win reelection in November over whichever far-right-extremist candidate (Hung Cao? Scott Parkinson?) the Republicans nominate. However, we all need to not take anything for granted and, instead, to make absolutely sure that Kaine wins HUGE – as does Biden – both to send a message that Virginia is NOT open to Trump/MAGA extremism, but also to help Democrats win VA02 and VA07 (the results of which could determine which party controls the US House in 2025).
Which races are you keeping a close eye on? Do you agree with the above analysis, or is there anything you disagree with? Feel free to weigh in!
Listen to “Sam Shirazi: The 2024 Primaries” on Spreaker.
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