This New Roanoke College “Poll” Has Some Really, Really Bizarre, Non-Credible, Skewed-Towards-Republicans Sh** In It, Such as Having Tim Walz’s Favorability at -17 Points (WTF???)

What a bizarre, bizarre poll (or maybe “poll” in air quotes) from Roanoke College. Why do I say this? Let us count the ways…at least 10 of them that jumped out at me (and jumped out at other Virginia Democratic politicos who I’ve been chatting with this morning).

1. First of all, Kamala Harris is definitely going to win Virginia by more than 3 points; most likely, we’re talking 5-10 points in the end. So this just seems like a Republican-leaning poll from a pollster that’s been consistently Republican-leaning this cycle. Bizarre.
2. Tim Walz at -17 favorability (34%-51%) is absolutely unbelievable when Walz has consistently been at around +5 favorability nationally. That alone calls into serious question the credibility (or complete lack thereof) of this “poll.”
3. It’s also VERY odd to see Kamala Harris at -10 favorability (43%-53%) in this “poll,” when she’s been at +2 to +6 favorability in polls since August 12. Why on earth would she be 12 to 18 points lesss favorable in Virginia than nationally? Who the hell knows.
4.  Glenn Youngkin’s favorability ratings in this “poll” bizarrely surged, from +9 in May to +14 points now, as if he had had some kind of massive success since then. Which, of course, he hasn’t. So…why??? Totally not credible.
5. Also, why on earth would Trump’s favorability rating in Virginia have increased by 4 points since May? Crazy.
6. The idea that Virginians are almost evenly split on whether or not Trump’s a threat to democracy isn’t credible, nor is the near-even split among Virginians who supposedly think that the switch from Biden to Harris was a threat to democracy. No chance any of that is even remotely accurate.
7. It’s hard to believe that Virginians, by a 13-point margin, actually think “Donald Trump has the strength required to deal with adversaries of the U.S. such as Vladimir Putin.” If so, just….WTF???
8. Trump with a 6-point lead (43%-37%) over Biden in the question, “If I had interviewed you before President Biden’s decision to drop out of the 2024 race, who did you plan to vote for in the November General Election?” That makes zero sense whatsoever, and indicates that the poll’s sample is heavily skewed Republican.
9. The geographic and educational breakouts seem to be skewed towards rural areas, which obviously lean heavily Republican…
10. Harris is currently about +2.9 points ahead of Trump nationally, per FiveThirtyEight, so this Roanoke College “poll” is saying that Virginia – which went by 10+ points for Biden in 2020 (compared to Biden +4.5 points nationally), 5 points for Clinton in 2016 (compared to Clinton +2.1 points nationally), etc. – is almost exactly the same as the national polling average? Hard to believe.

Bottom line: This Roanoke College “poll” appears to be seriously flawed – maybe a really bad sample? other egregious mistakes? both?  And yet, even in this “poll,” Harris is up by 3 points. So whatever, just ignore these moronic “polls” and work like we’re tied – and we’ll see how Virginia goes on election day.