Ballots are still being counted in the 2024 elections – with the US House still a possibility, albeit a long shot, for Democrats to hang on to at least ONE bastion of power in Washington, DC – and we’re all exhausted. But life goes on, as does Virginia politics, including the fact that in November 2025, we’ll be electing a new Governor, a new Lieutenant Governor, quite possibly a new Attorney General, while the entire House of Delegates will be up for election. So with that in mind, at some point we really will need to turn our attention to what comes next, right here in Virginia.
Along those lines, this morning, super-sharp Virginia Democratic political analyst Sam Shirazi offered some thoughts on the 2025 Virginia governor’s election. See below for those (in bold/purple), along with my responses (in green/bold/italics) below following each of his points.
“Previewing some issues that might come up in the 2025 Virginia Governor’s elections. Some favor one party while others are neutral. Hard to know which one will be decisive this far out. Cost of living/Tax, Abortion, Education, Crime/Guns, Housing, Trump” – Sam Shirazi
Those are all important, highly relevant issues, no question. And certainly, there will be a lot of debate/discussion about them next year. But I’m mostly thinking that the top factors in the 2025 Virginia governor’s election won’t be issue-related at all. Instead, I think what will really determine the outcome of next year’s Virginia governor’s election are the following factors:
- First, remember that in pretty much every Virginia governor’s election for decades now, the party which won was the OPPOSITE of the one holding the White House. Thus, in 2021, Joe Biden was in the White House and Glenn Youngkin won the governorship (albeit by only 2 points). In 2017, Donald Trump was in the White House and Democrat Ralph Northam won the governorship in a landslide (9 points). In 2013, we had an exception to the rule, with Barack Obama in the White House, but Terry McAuliffe very narrowly (2.5 points) defeating Republican Ken Cuccinelli for the governorship. In 2009, Barack Obama was in the White House, and Republican Bob McDonnell won a massive, 17-point landslide over Democrat Creigh Deeds. In 2005, George W. Bush was in the White House and Democrat Tim Kaine won the governor’s race over Republican Terry Kilgore by 5.7 points. In 2001, George W. Bush was in the White House, and Democrat Mark Warner defeated Republican Mark Earley for governor by 5.2 points. In 1997, Bill Clinton was in the White House, and Republican Jim Gilmore won the governor’s race over Democrat Don Beyer by a whopping 13 points. In 1993, Bill Clinton was in the White House, and Republican George Allen defeated Democrat Mary Sue Terry for governor by >17 points. In 1989, George HW Bush was in the White House, and Democrat Doug Wilder won the governor’s race by 0.3 percentage points over Republican Marshall Coleman. In 1985, Ronald Reagan was in the White House, and Democrat Gerald Baliles won the governor’s race 10+ points over Republican Wyatt Durrette. In 1981, Ronald Reagan was in the White House, and Democrat Chuck Robb won the governor’s race by 7.1 points over Republican Marshall Coleman. Sensing a pattern here? Haha.
- But yeah, this is a very strong, persistent pattern, and if it holds next year, Democrat Abigail Spanberger would be almost certain to win. But will it hold? Was this election of Donald Trump qualitatively different than anything that’s come before it? What happened in almost previous election was very simple – that the party which just won the White House got a bit complacent, or went to sleep, while the other party – the one that lost the White House – was FIRED UP, ENERGIZED, PISSED, whatever…the point is, they were MOTIVATED to come out to the polls the next year in Virginia and kick some butt. Will this happen again in 2025? It certainly should, if history is any guide at all, but my main questions are whether Democrats will be too demoralized, shell shocked, etc. to turn out in droves, and whether Republicans will still be fired up. Because, the fact is, these Virginia governor’s elections are very heavily – almost exclusively, one could argue, based on the history – determined by who shows up to vote, and specifically which party is more energized, fired up, etc. Do “the issues” matter in that calculus? Mmmmayyyybe? But again, if you look historically, each election had debate/discussion of issues, but the one constant has been the inverse relationship between the party which wins (or holds) the White House and which party wins the Virginia governorship the next year.
- Something else I believe could make a difference next year’s Virginia governor’s race is how the media covers it. Currently, there is a torrent of criticism – very much deserved, IMHO! – of the U.S. news media for doing a horrible job of covering the election, as well as a horrible job of covering the Biden administration’s many successes, a horrible job of covering the economy, a horrible job of covering Trump (the term “sanewashing” gained a lot of popularity this past year for the press basically sanitizing Trump’s extreme, insane, rambling, unhinged speeches and turning them into whitewashed headlines like “In Michigan, Trump discusses economic agenda.”) We saw this here in Virginia in 2021, with the media – the WaPo being the biggest offender – basically whitewashing Glenn Youngkin as some sort of “moderate,” which he definitely wasn’t (and you would have known that he wasn’t if you’d watched him at Republican forums/debates in the winter and spring leading up to his nomination). Will the media do the same thing next year with Winsome Sears, who by almost any metric – objectively speaking – is very far right, extreme, etc? I’m assuming that yes, that’s exactly what they’ll do, because that’s ALWAYS what they do with far-right Republicans. Anyway, let’s just assume the media’s coverage of the 2025 Virginia governor’s race will suck and proceed accordingly? But even if we do that, will the media “sanewashing” Sears mean that the electorate doesn’t understand the massive differences between Sears and Spanberger, or the threat a Sears governorship could pose to Virginia? Kinda like…yep, what happened in 2021 with Youngkin? What’s Democrats’ plan to deal with this, exactly?
- Another factor in next year’s gubernatorial race will be how effective the campaigns are in communicating their messages AND in defining their opponent. In the case of Abigail Spanberger, I presume she’ll run as a “moderate” who will “reach across the aisle and get things done,” etc. Which is fine, as far as it goes. But she’s also going to need to make sure that she: a) fires up the Democratic base, so that it’s motivated to turn out in droves; b) defines her opponent, presumably Winsome Sears, as out of the mainstream – just like Democrats did in 2013, defining Ken Cuccinelli/EW Jackson/Mark Obenshain as the “Extreme Team”; c) raise a TON of money to communicate to voters who she is, why they need to elect her and not Sears, what the stakes are for Virginia’s future, etc.
“Cost of Living/Tax: Given election results, not surprising this might be brought up by voters. GOP will likely go to default of tax cuts to help ease burden. Dems should be ready for some sort of counter proposal. Perhaps adding items to list of lower sale tax exemptions.” – Sam Shirazi
No question, the economy – including the cost of living, taxes, etc. – will be discussed next year. And Democrats absolutely need to have ideas about how to make life better for working-class Virginians, middle-class Virginians, etc. Of course, we have no idea what the economic situation will look like heading into the fall of 2025 – it could be great, but it also could be a DISASTER if Trump really follows through with his vows to crank up tariffs (a tax on Americans that will fuel inflation), give massive tax breaks to the wealthy and to big corporations (that also won’t help the economic situation for 99% of Americans), deport millions of undocumented immigrants (that alone could have devastating economic impacts, on top of being a human rights disaster). So we’ll have to see what things look like by summer/fall 2025, but if Trump destroys the economy, obviously it will be a huge issue that Democrats should pound Republicans with (on the other hand, if the economy’s doing great, that will be an advantage for the 2025 VA GOP gubernatorial nominee).
“Abortion: Dems will seize on issue and explain possibility of Constitutional referendum in 2026 to add protections to VA Constitution if they win. GOP will need some sort of policy on the topic. In 2023, went with 15 week limit and didn’t work.” – Sam Shirazi
Agreed – abortion will likely be a VERY big issue in 2025, especially if Trump and Congressional Republicans push to restrict or even ban it nationally. In 2022 and 2023, post-“Dobbs,” this issue definitely seemed to help Democrats around the country, including here in Virginia. In 2024, though, I’m not sure it had much impact – certainly not what many analysts were expecting heading into 2024, that’s for sure. So we’ll see what happens with Trump and Congress potentially cracking down on abortion, and if so what kind of backlash that causes. Or if they DON’T crack down on abortion, maybe this won’t be a top issue for most Virginia voters next fall?
“Education: Youngkin flipped the script in 2021 and made this a winning issue for GOP. Will try to point to his record on issue. Dems need to be careful to not fall into the trap of not supporting accountability. Need to lay out vision to support and improve public schools.” – Sam Shirazi
Agreed – education absolutely should be a *Democratic* issue, and definitely was for many years. One thing’s for sure – we CAN NOT and MUST NOT cede this issue to the Republicans, as we did in 2021, with Terry McAuliffe literally kicking off his campaign at the Miles Jones Elementary School in Richmond, with “The centerpiece of his campaign” being “the largest investment in public education in the history of Virginia: $2 billion a year.” Yet somehow, Youngkin managed to turn that issue around, mostly by pounding on the b.s. non-issue of “Critical Race Theory” (which wasn’t even taught in Virginia public schools) and “transgender kids in bathrooms.” Starting pretty early on in the campaign, I kept telling Democrats they needed to respond to this stuff, but they never effectively did. And then Terry McAuliffe had his disastrous gaffe in a debate with Youngkin, seeming to say that parents shouldn’t play a major role in their kids’ education (of course, McAuliffe doesn’t believe that, but Republicans POUNCED). So anyway, bottom line: Democrats need to OWN THE EDUCATION ISSUE, absolutely must NOT cede it to Republicans, especially given that Republicans are actually very hostile to public education, have a terrible record on the subject, etc.
“Crime/Guns: This is an issue where GOP has been able to paint Dems as weak on crime. Dems don’t have to abandon principles of better justice system. But can’t be perceived as ignoring concerns. Also can point to gun safety as way to keep communities safe.” – Sam Shirazi
Correct – Democrats have got to be aggressive on this issue, don’t duck it, don’t pretend that voters don’t feel the way they do, and definitely don’t let Republicans get away with lying (e.g., claiming that crime rates were high under Biden, when actually they declined and were near multi-decade lows). And yes, Sam Shirazi is correct – Democrats can’t be MORE “tough-on-crime” than Republicans; we have to be SMARTER, more EFFECTIVE on crime, which the fact is, Democrats generally are! And definitely don’t ever, EVER let the words “defund the police” or “we care more about criminals than victims” cross your lips. Hell, don’t even THINK it, because it’s both wrong and politically disastrous.
“Housing: One of the biggest economic challenges is the cost of housing. Both parties have talked about increasing the housing supply. At same time, there has been resistance to building more housing. Lots of the policies on these issues are set at state and local level.” – Sam Shirazi
Tricky topic, no doubt, as there are many “NIMBYs” out there of both parties. But yes, on the merits, there’s no doubt that we need a lot more housing supply, including housing that is AFFORDABLE to people from all walks of lives, and which allows people to actually live in walkable, livable communities near transit, good schools, parks, etc, etc. Democrats really need to figure out a way to communicate effectively on this issue – and to propose policies accordingly.
“Trump Looming over race: Will be second Trump term. Dems can use Trump to rile base, but also understand many are demoralized by loss. Can’t make race all about Trump given other issues. GOP will have to figure out how to navigate Trump, who has lost Virginia 3 times.” – Sam Shirazi
I already discussed this above, but yes, Trump will DOMINATE the conversation next year – for better or (more likely!) worse – as will the policies (including many extreme and unpopular policies, including from the hated “Project 2025” agenda) Congress and he enact. As James Carville discusses in a video he posted earlier today, Democrats need to “attack, attack, attack” every time Republicans push one of their horrible policies – as Carville says, “make these bastards pay – and every time they come up with something, we’re going to point out how this betrays the very people that voted for you.” Let’s see if Virginia Democrats can take the outrage that is certain to come next year and turn it to our advantage, fire up our voters, maybe convince some Trump voters that actually, he really sucks, etc. I mean, honestly, if we can’t do that, given how bad things are likely to get next year, we probably don’t DESERVE to win elections ever again. So yeah, let’s make sure we don’t fail, and that every Virginian knows when they go to the polls next fall exactly what’s at stake and why it is CRUCIAL to elect Democrats up and down the ballot!
UPDATE 11/11: One more point I forgot to make is that Virginia Democrats have made a huge mistake not really going after Glenn Youngkin, who has accomplished next to nothing as governor, while also doing a LOT of harm. In part because Dems haven’t really gone after him, his net approval rating – while not extraordinary by any means, or compared to past Virginia governors – is still positive, and that means he could be (but shouldn’t be) an asset to Republicans next year. Very frustrating.
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