New Emerson College Poll Shows Abigail Spanberger Leading Winsome Earle-Sears by Just 1 Point (42%-41%)

A few quick points about this new poll from Emerson College: 

• First off, it’s still VERY early, people aren’t paying attention, hardly anybody knows the candidates well, etc. So take this with an appropriately sized grain of salt.
• Having said that, I’d argue that in no way/shape/form should we take the 2025 Virginia governor’s race for granted. On a related note, in no way/shape/form should we underestimate Winsome Earle Sears or just assume that Abigail Spanberger will crush her, because Sears is an extremist, nutjob, whatever. Thus, unlike Spanberger herself, who says the governor’s race “certainly isn’t tighter than expected for me” and doesn’t appear worried, I’d argue that at this point, after Trump’s election, we should every much worry about elections, even ones that we SHOULD win on the merits (e.g., in this case, Spanberger would be infinitely better than Sears as governor).
• “Support for Earle-Sears is found among male voters, who break for the Lieutenant Governor 52% to 37%, and white voters, who break for her 50% to 35%. Spanberger leads among women, 47% to 31%, and both older and young voters: those over 70, who break for Spanberger 46% to 43%, and those under 30, who break for her 43% to 33%.” This is very much reminiscent of how support for Trump broke down in the 2024 presidential election, including big racial and gender gaps.
• As always, the outcome of this November’s Virginia governor’s election will come down to TURNOUT, specifically which party’s “base” is more fired up. If you look back decades, that’s pretty much how it’s always been, with Virginia usually swinging hard for governor against whichever party’s in the White House. Thus, in 2009, Bob McDonnell (R) won the governor’s race by 17+ points just one year after Barack Obama won the White House, and won Virginia by 6 points; in 2017, Ralph Northam (D) won the governor’s race by 9 points just one year after Trump won the White House; in 2001 and 2005, Democrats Mark Warner and Tim Kaine won the governor’s mansion after George W. Bush won the White House; in 2021, Glenn Youngkin won the governorship a year after Joe Biden won the White House, and won Virginia by 10 points; etc. So yes, based on that history, yes, Democrats should win the Virginia governorship this November, but then again, based on the macroeconomic indicators, Democrats should have easily held the White House this past November, so who the hell knows anymore?

Your thoughts on this poll and on the Virginia governor’s race in general?

P.S. Of course, Spanberger and Sears aren’t even their parties’ nominees yet, and it’s still possible that either or both will face primary challenges, so we’ll see…