Excellent analysis by J. Miles Coleman of UVA’s Center for Politics/Sabato’s Crystal Ball:
“All 56 light blue districts that Northam carried in 2017 went on to back Kaine in 2024, while the 38 light red ones supported both of their Republican opponents, Ed Gillespie and Hung Cao, respectively. However, despite the same topline margin, Kaine flipped six Gillespie-won districts, which are darker blue—Kaine also came within about 30 votes of flipping a seventh, the Virginia Peninsula’s HD-69. Gillespie-to-Kaine districts include HD-22, in Prince William County, HDs 64 and 66, which include parts of Interstate 95 in the Fredericksburg area, and the trio of HDs 57, 73, and 75, which are in the Richmond area. Meanwhile, there were no Northam-to-Cao districts.
Despite being the current minority party in the House of Delegates, Republicans are probably more exposed than Democrats—they hold all six Gillespie-to-Kaine districts and five straight-party Democratic seats on Map 1. Of course, if Spanberger wins this year’s gubernatorial race by less than 9 points (or if Republicans win the race outright), legislative Democrats may have a harder time targeting those seats, although Harris’s 6-point margin was enough for her to carry 4 of the 6 dark blue districts on Map 1.
…As the table shows, the top four districts that swung most Democratic over the last seven years were in the Richmond metro area. The fastest blue-trending seat on the map is HD-58, which is held by Democrat Rodney Willett and takes pieces of Richmond proper and some closer-in suburbs. After that, the aforementioned trio of HDs 57, 73, and 75 are nearby and saw similar blue swings—HD-57 includes Short Pump while 73 and 75 take in parts of Chesterfield County.”
So, based on this analysis, some of the top targets for Virginia House of Delegates Democrats this fall include:
- HD57: Held by Republican freshman Del. David Owen (elected by just 2 points over Susanna Gibson in November 2023), this Henrico County-dominated district went to Kamala Harris in November by 9.4 points and Tim Kaine by 10.1 points (and is also identified by J. Miles Coleman as moving rapidly in the “blue” direction). So yeah, this one is a HUGE pickup opportunity for Democrats – either May Nivar or Andrew Schear. Definitely the top Democratic pickup opportunity in the House of Delegates this year.
- HD73: This Chesterfield County seat is currently held by Republican freshman Del. Mark Earley Jr. (elected in November 2023). It went by 0.6 points to Kamala Harris and by 0.5 points to Tim Kaine in November 2024, and is also identified by J. Miles Coleman as moving rapidly in the “blue” direction. The two Democrats running for the nomination here are Leslie Mehta and Justin Woodford. Both have a shot in November if they run strong campaigns, and particularlyif Abigail Spanberger wins by a similar margin as Ralph Northam did in 2017 and Tim Kaine did last year.
- HD75: This Chesterfield County-centered seat is currently held by Republican Del. Carrie Coyner, first elected in November 2019, but in a district that went for Kamala Harris by 6.1 points and for Tim Kaine by 9.4 points (and is also identified by J. Miles Coleman as moving rapidly in the “blue” direction.) Three Democrats – Lindsey Dougherty, Stephen Miller-Pitts, Dustin Wade – are vying for the nomination here, and whoever is the nominee will most definitely have a shot at replacing Carrie Coyner.
- HD22: This Prince William County seat is currently held by freshman Republican Del. Ian Lovejoy, first elected in November 2023, but in a district that went for Kamala Harris by 1.1 points and Tim Kaine by 2.2 points. The likely Democratic nominee here is former Del. Elizabeth Guzman, and this one’s definitely shaping up as a slugfest – which Democrats absolutely can win.
- HD64: This Stafford County seat is significantly tougher than the other ones listed – Tim Kaine did manage to win it 0.1 points in November 2024, but Kamala Harris lost by 2.0 points, and other than that, it has tended to lean Republican. Still, it would be great if Democrats could win this, as the Republican incumbent, Paul Milde, is one of the most right-wing members of the House of Delegates, and as such as definitely NOT a good fit for this at-best-LIGHT-red seat. The likely Democratic nominee here is Stacey Carroll.
- HD66: Another tough district (this one in Spotsylvania/Caroline; represented by Republican Del. Bobby Orrock), but potentially winnable in a “blue wave” year with a strong Democratic nominee. The likely Democratic nominee here is Nicole Cole.
In addition, I’d definitely toss in:
- HD82 (Petersburg/Dinwiddie/Prince George), currently held by freshman Republican Del. Kim Taylor, should be VERY competitive given that Kamala Harris won HD82 by 3.9 points and Tim Kaine won it by 7.5 points in 2024; Democrat Kimberly Pope Adams can most DEFINITELY win this seat, and SHOULD win this seat if Trump’s approval rating is in the 30s or low 40s or whatever come November.
- And then there’s HD71 (James City County/Williamsburg/New Kent County), which Kamala Harris won by 4.7 points and Tim Kaine won by 4.8 points this past November, and where Democrat Jessica Anderson is challenging incumbent Del. Amanda Batten (R), is also competitive.
- Also, check out HD89, which Kamala Harris won by 3.0 points and Tim Kaine won by 5.7 points, and which will be an open seat after Republican incumbent Del. Baxter Ennis announced he’s not running for reelection (Democrats Karen Carnegie and Blaizen Buckshot Bloom are running for this nomination).
- Also, HD86 (Chesapeake/Suffolk) could be competitive, given that both Harris and Kaine won it (by 1.1 and 3.6 points, respectively) in November 2024; Virgil Thornton is the likely Democratic nominee to take on Del. A.C. Cordoza (R).
- A few others to keep an eye on: HD69 (Democrat Mark Downey vs. Republican Del. Chad Green in York/James City County/Gloucester County/Newport News), HD30 (Democrat John McAuliff vs. incumbent Republican Del. Geary Higgins in Loudoun County/Fauquier County), HD41 (Republican Del. Chris Obenshain vs. Democrat Lily Franklin in Montgomer County/Roanoke County), etc.
As for Republican pickup opportunities, as J. Miles Coleman says, “none of the top 10 most red-swinging districts are realistically competitive for Republicans: the least blue district on the right table on Map 2, eastern Loudoun County’s HD-27, backed Kaine by nearly 24 points.” In other words, this fall Virginia House Democrats *should be* mostly on offense, with the opportunity to increase their narrow 51-49 majority, while Republicans *should be* mostly on defense. But as always, take nothing for granted, plus of course who knows what craziness will take place between now and November, including possible efforts by Republicans to mess with elections/democracy?
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