From conservative Republican and Trump voter, former Lt. Governor Bill Bolling:
- “2025 is certainly shaping up as a year that should favor Virginia Democrats.”
- “Not only is Virginia a fairly reliable +3%-4% Democratic state in statewide political campaigns, but the unpopularity of President Donald Trump with Virginia voters should help motivate the Democratic base, especially in vote rich Northern Virginia.”
- “In addition, early indicators are that Spanberger is outpacing Sears by a margin of at least 2:1 in fund raising, which is critial to a candidate’s ability to get their message out to voters.”
- “My best assessment at this point is that 2025 could look a lot like 2017, when Democrat Ralph Northam defeated Republican Ed Gillispie by 9%.”
This seems about right, although the results in Florida and Wisconsin elections last Tuesday indicated a shift towards the Democrats of 11 points in Wisconsin and 19 points in Florida, so if that were to happen in Virginia, we’d be talking about more like a 17-point win for Spanberger. But sure, we’ll take a 9-point win…while shooting for more – to send a message to Trump, to guarantee Democrats sweep the LG and AG races, and to gain as many House of Delegates seats as possible for the “blue team!”
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IT’S SEARS V SPANBERGER
The 2025 race for Governor of Virginia is set. The Republican nominee will be current Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle Sears. The Democratic nominee will be former U.S. Representative Abigail Spanberger.
There had been some suspense on both the Republican and Democratic tickets, but the suspense has faded.
Rep. Bobby Scott, who had talked about challenging Spanberger for the Democratic nomination, chose not to do so.
And on the Republican side, three potential challengers to Sears failed to get the required number of petition signatures to qualify for the election ballot.
There is still some suspense in down ticket races.
On the Republican side, the race for Lieutenant Governor will be between Fairfax County Supervisor Pat Herrity, and former WRVA talk show host John Reid. (RPV is still reviewing Reid’s petition submissions.)
On the Democratic side, there is a competitive race for both Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General.
While you never know what will happen in political campaigns, 2025 is certainly shaping up as a year that should favor Virginia Democrats.
Not only is Virginia a fairly reliable +3%-4% Democratic state in statewide political campaigns, but the unpopularity of President Donald Trump with Virginia voters should help motivate the Democratic base, especially in vote rich Northern Virginia.
In addition, early indicators are that Spanberger is outpacing Sears by a margin of at least 2:1 in fund raising, which is critial to a candidate’s ability to get their message out to voters.
My best assessment at this point is that 2025 could look a lot like 2017, when Democrat Ralph Northam defeated Republican Ed Gillispie by 9%.
But then again, Democrat Terry McAuliffe was leading Governor Glenn Youngkin by 4% in early October of 2021, before McAuliffe torpedoed his own campaign at the final gubernatorial debate by suggesting that parents should not be able to direct the education of their children.
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