Excellent analysis by former VA Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling, a conservative Republican and Trump supporter – but this a solid, reality-based, objective look at the 2025 VA House of Delegates contests to watch, and it’s definitely worth reading. Reminder that the Virginia House of Delegates is currently at a slim 51-49 Democratic majority, but that before the 2021 elections, won by Glenn Youngkin etc., Democrats held a 55-45 majority. So a gain this year of six seats, which is what Bolling is thinking, would get Democrats to a 57-43 majority.
Of course, if Trump’s approval rating stays low or even falls further; and if Abigail Spanberger keeps running a far superior campaign to Winsome Earle-Sears’ shambolic mess, I could see Democrats even hitting 60 seats or a bit higher. In addition to the districts Bolling mentions, I’d add HD30 (Democrat John McAuliff vs. Republican incumbent Del. Geary Higgins), HD73 (Democrat Leslie Mehta vs. Republican incumbent Del. Mark Earley Jr.), HD65 (Democrat Stacey Carroll vs. Republican incumbent Del. Paul Milde), HD69 (Democrat Mark Downey vs. Republican incumbent Del. Chad Green), maybe others as well…
But let’s not get overconfident or get ahead of ourselves – one thing at a time, make sure you vote Democratic up and down the ballot and remind everyone you know to do the same, etc.
2025 ELECTION – HOUSE OF DELEGATES PREVIEW
In past reports I have discussed the status of the three statewide campaigns that will be on the election ballot this fall – Governor, Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General.
But in addition to these three statewide offices, all 100 seats in the Virginia House of Delegates will be on the ballot this fall. These are very important races as well, for they will determine which party will control the House of Delegates for the next two years.
Democrats currently hold a slim 51-49 majority in the House of Delegates. Republicans are working hard to flip the House of Delegates this November, but they face the same adverse national headwinds that are impacting the three statewide elections, i.e., a weak gubernatorial candidate, a statewide ticket that is not unified, and a Republican President who has a 40% approval rating in Virginia – even lower in the populous Northern Virginia region.
In analyzing this fall’s House of Delegate campaigns, it is important to note that although there are 100 seats in the House of Delegates, most of these districts are not politically competitive.
In fact, based on an analysis of the last campaigns for the House of Delegates in 2023, only 12 of the 100 seats in the House are truly competitive, and some of them are only marginally competitive.
In the 2023 election, Democrats won three of these competitive districts, and Republicans won the other nine.
Given the headwinds Republicans face this year, I don’t see any of the Democrats who were elected in competitive districts in 2023 being vulnerable this year. This would include the following House districts:
* 21st District (Prince William County) – Delegate Josh Thomas (D) was elected in 2023 by a margin of 52%-48%
* 58th District (Stafford and Spotsylvania Counties) – Delegate Joshua Cole (D) was elected in 2023 by a margin of 53%-47%
* 97th District – (Virginia Beach) – Delegate Michael Feggans was elected in 2023 by a margin of 52%-48%
I just can’t see Republicans picking up any of these seats this year, although they will certainly make the effort.
However, Republicans won nine competitive districts in 2023, and all these seats could be vulnerable in 2025. This would include the following districts:
* 22nd District (Northern Virginia) – Delegate Ian Lovejoy (R) won this district by 4% in 2023.
* 41st District (Blacksburg and part of Montgomery County and Roanoke County) – Delegate Chris Obenshain (R) won this district by 1% in 2023
* 57th District (Henrico County) – Delegate David Owen (R) won this district by 2% in 2023
* 71st District – James City County and New Kent County) – Delegate Amanda Batten won this district by 1% in 2023
* 75th District – (Chesterfield, Prince George and Hopewell) – Delegate Carrie Coyner (R) won this district by 5% in 2023
* 82nd District (Petersburg, Prince George, Dinwiddie and Surry) – Delegate Kim Taylor (R) won this district by 1% in 2023)
* 86th District (Hampton) – Delegate A.C. Cordoza (R ) won this district by 7% in 2023)
* 89th District (parts of Chesapeake and Suffolk) – Delegate Baxter Ennis (R) won this district by 1% in 2023
I’m confident Democrats view all these districts as potential pick-up seats in 2025, and some of them (22nd, 31st, 57th, 71st, 82nd, 89th) are particularly vulnerable.
These are the House of Delegates campaigns to watch over the next several weeks.
My best analysis is that Democrats are likely to increase their majority in the House of Delegates this fall, with the potential to pick up 6 seats, perhaps more.
