New poll this morning from VCU:
Commonwealth Poll: Spanberger leads Earle-Sears 49% to 40% in Virginia governor’s race, margin narrows by 3 points since last month
RICHMOND, Va. (September 9, 2025) – The L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University today released findings from its latest Commonwealth Poll, conducted between August 18 and August 28. The poll captures voter sentiment ahead of Virginia’s 2025 statewide election, offering insights into candidate matchups, voter priorities and the issues most important to Virginians.
Governor Wilder said the results point to greater competitiveness across the three statewide contests:
“The latest Wilder School Poll results reveal just how these races have become more competitive. In the contest for lieutenant governor, Senator Ghazala Hashmi holds only a narrow lead over John Reid (45%-41%), despite Governor Youngkin’s unprecedented demand that Reid not run for the seat. That speaks volumes about the limits of Youngkin’s influence. The governor’s race tells a similar story: Abigail Spanberger leads Winsome Earle-Sears 49% to 40%, suggesting that Youngkin’s endorsement is likewise not carrying the weight he might have expected. Even Attorney General Jason Miyares, closely tied to this administration, trails former Delegate Jay Jones, 47% to 41%.”
Key findings
Among registered voters, former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger leads Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears 49% to 40%, down from a 12-point margin last month. Nearly half of independents (48%) remain undecided.
For lieutenant governor, Sen. Ghazala Hashmi holds a 45% to 41% edge over John Reid, compared to a 10-point advantage a month ago. Former Del. Jay Jones leads Attorney General Jason Miyares 47% to 41%, narrowing from nine points last month.
Margins are tightening in all three statewide contests, underscoring the influence independents and undecided voters may have this fall.
Governor Wilder added that the results also speak to the values and issues shaping the campaign:
“Our elections have never been decided by extremes, but by people who put the Commonwealth first. The issues that matter most—rising costs, protecting rights, and strengthening education — are concerns shared by voters in every community. Virginia has long been a place where independents and undecided voters determine the outcome, reminding us that leaders must represent the people, ALL of the people.
With Virginia and New Jersey being the only states holding elections in November, there is much speculation as to what these results portend for the political landscape, not just for the Commonwealth, but across the nation.”
Top issues influencing voters
When asked which issue would most influence their vote in the upcoming election, 28% of registered voters identified the rising cost of living, followed by women’s reproductive rights (13%) and immigration and education (12%).
These results mirror the results of the poll a month ago.
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