So with the redistricting amendment having passed, where’s everybody going to be running? Here’s a rough list, which I’ll update as I get more information; also, see below for maps and estimates of the partisan lean (courtesy of VoteHub) for each district. By the way, the primaries for the new U.S. House districts will be on August 4 (aka, NOT in June as they normally have been for many years); and “Candidate filing deadlines for U.S. House of Representative candidates have moved to May 26 (deadline extended due to holiday) for party candidates and August 4 for independent candidates. ”
VA01 (Harris +7.4 points)
- Rep. Eugene Vindman (D-currently VA07): Said back on February 12 that he’d be running in the new VA01 if the redistricting amendment passed. Assuming he’s running for VA01, he’ll be the overwhelming favorite for the Democratic nomination, as well as in November.
- Tim Cywinski (D): His website still says he’s running in VA01, but he also says, “No matter where I run, Virginia is my district. America is my home.” So…not sure (heard from a source that he might end up running in VA05; will move him there if confirmed).
- Ericka Kopp (D): Oh her website, it says she’s running in VA01, but it’s not clear what she intends assuming new district lines.
- Lewis Littlepage (D): On his website, he talks about taking on Rob Wittman, who currently represents VA01, but it’s not clear what happens if Wittman doesn’t run in the new VA01.
- James Shea (D): On his website, he says he’s running in VA01, but it’s not clear what he intends assuming new district lines.
- John Gray (R): On his Facebook page, he says he’s running agianst Eugene Vindman, but not sure if that will still be the case in the new VA01.
VA02 (Harris +4.7 points)
- Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-VA02): The incumbent in this district, is running for reelection – and should lose to former Rep. Elaine Luria given the new district lean as well as a likely “blue wave” (or “blue tsunami”) political environment this fall.
- Fmr. Rep. Elaine Luria (D-VA02): Assuming Luria wins the Democratic nomination, which is probably a 99% chance at the moment, she’ll be a strong favorite to defeat Kiggans – and thank goodness!
- Nila Devanath (D): On her campaign website, she still appears to be running in VA02.
- Patrick Mosolf (D): On his campaign website, he still appears to be running in VA02, but I don’t see any comments by him since the referendum passed on Tuesday.
- Nicolaus Sleister (D): No sign of a campaign website, Facebook page, etc., so…not sure.
- Matt Strickler (D): On his campaign website, it still looks like he’s running in VA02, but I don’t see anything indicating his thoughts since the redistricting referendum passed.
- Burk Stringfellow (D): On his website, he says he’s running to take on Jen Kiggans in VA02.
VA03 (Harris +26.5 points)
- Rep. Bobby Scott (D-VA03): Should win reelection overwhelmingly in his deep-blue district.
VA04 (Harris +15.9 points)
- Rep. Jennifer McClellan (D-VA04): Should win reelection easily in her solid-blue district.
VA05 (Harris +8.5 points)
- Rep. John McGuire (R-currently VA05): Not clear what he’ll do if the courts give the green light to the new districts; he’ll be pretty much politically “homeless” if they do, though…and also in a very blue-leaning seat if he stays n VA05.
- Shannon Taylor (D): After the redistricting amendment passed, Taylor reaffirmed her plans to run in the new VA05, which is where she lives from what I’m told. Given her money and endorsements, she appears to be a strong favorite for the nomination AND for the seat in November.
- Salaam Bhatti (D): On his campaign website, he says he’s running for VA05.
- Mel Tull (D): On his campaign website, he says he’s running in VA05.
VA06 (Harris +3.0 points)
- Rep. Ben Cline (R-currently VA06): Not clear what he’ll do if the courts give the green light to the new districts, but for now I’d assume he’ll try to win this “purplish” district.
- Tom Perriello (D): Given his name ID, money, endorsements, campaign team, etc. Perriello would appear to be the strong favorite for this nomination and for the seat in November, given a “blue wave” political environment (which seems highly likely at the moment, although obviously things could change by the fall).
- Beth Macy (D): Her campaign website continues to indicate that she’s running to take on Rep. Ben Cline.
- Rob Tracinski (D): Has announced that he’s running in the new VA06.
- Pete Barlow (D): On his campaign website, he says he will continue to run in VA06 “until the outcome becomes clear” on redistricting.
- Ken Mitchell (D): On his campaign website, he still appears to be running in VA06.
- Suzanne Kryzanowski (D): On her campaign Facebook page, she says she’s now running in VA06.
VA07 (Harris +8.0 points)
- Dorothy McAuliffe (D): Says on her website that she’s running for VA07 (definitely a strong candidate, given her name ID, some big-name endorsements and huge $$$ haul in 1Q26).
- Dan Helmer (D): Says on his Facebook page that he’s running for VA07 (another strong candidate; has raised a good amount of money and gotten a bunch of endorsements).
- Adele McClure (D): Announced recently at the Arlington County Democratic Committeee for VA07 (if she can raise $$$, could very well be a serious contender in this race, especially given that Arlington makes up a significant chunk – about 20% – of the new VA07).
- Elizabeth Guzman (D): On Wednesday morning, April 22, announced her candidacy for VA07 (could also be a serious contender in this race if she can raise $$$).
- Saddam Salim (D): Announced recently at the Arlington County Democratic Committee for VA07 (again, the question is whether he can raise significant $$$; Fairfax County makes up about 1/3 of the new VA07, but there are multiple Fairfax-based candidates in the race).
- JP Cooney (D): Announced recently at the Arlington County Democratic Committee for VA07 (raised significant $$$ in 1Q26, so we’ll see if he can build on that and start getting some endorsements as well).
- Joseph Schiarizzi (D): Says on his website he’s running for VA07.
- Olivia Troye (D): Announced recently that she’s running for VA07; also says that on her Facebook page (could raise good $$$, I’d think, given her national profile, but it could be challenging for her to win over Democratic primary voters, given her long history as a Republican, including in the Trump administration – although she’s broken hard with him…).
- David Kennedy (D): Announced recently at the Arlington County Democratic Committee for VA07.
- Adam Dunigan (D): On his campaign website, says he’s running for VA07.
- Jon Schmeelk (D): On his campaign website, says he’s running for VA07.
- Alex Thymmons (D): On his campaign website, says he’s running for VA07.
- Tara Durant (R): Not really clear on her Facebook page where she’s running, but on VPAP, it says she’s running in VA07 (hard to see Durant having any chance in VA07, or in any other district really; also, she’s in serious danger of losing her State Senate seat next year).
- Douglas Olivant (R): On his Facebook page, says he’s still running for VA07.
VA08 (Harris +17.5 points)
- Rep. Don Beyer (D-VA08): Given his name ID, incumbency, financial resources, etc., he’s the overwhelming favorite to win the Democratic nomination and cruise to victory in November.
- Jason Knapp (D): On his Facebook page, it says “Democrat running for Congress in VA-08 to fight for working families.” On his campaign website, it says, ” Following today’s referendum result, Jason Knapp announced that he will run for Congress in Virginia’s newly formed 8th District, offering Democrats a new generation of leadership built on three commitments: affordability, action, and accountability. “
- Mo Seifeldein (D): On his campaign website, he’s very clearly running for VA08.
- Daniel Gray (D): On his campaign website, he says he’s running for VA08.
- Elizabeth Dempsey Beggs (D): On her campaign website, she says she’s runnign for VA08.
- (Also, several Republicans seem to be running…Tony Sabio, Luke Nathan Philips, Heerak Christian Kim)
VA09 (Trump +49.2 points)
- Rep. Morgan Griffith (R-VA09): Given his name ID, incumbency, and the fact that he’s in one of the reddest districts in the country, Griffith should cruise to victory in November, with the only serious threat (sad to say) being a potential Republican primary in August, maybe by one of the other Republicans left politically “homeless” by redistricting?
- Adam Murphy (D): On his campaign website, he says he’s running for VA09.
- Joy Powers (D): On her Facebook page, she says she’s running for VA09.
- Douglas Crockett (D): On his website, he says he’s running for VA09.
VA10 (Harris +12.4 points)
- Rep. Suhas Subramanyam (D-VA10): Given his name ID, incumbency, fundraising, etc., he should win the Democratic nomiantion easily and cruise to victory in November.
- Julie Perry (R): On her website, says she’s running for VA10.
- Sam Wong (R): On his website, says he’s running for VA10.
- Dave Beckwith (R): On his website, says he’s running for VA10.
VA11 (Harris +13.5 points)
- Rep. James Walkinshaw (D-VA11): The overwhelming (99%+) favorite (because he’s doing a great job, is popular, etc.) to win the Democratic nomination and to be reelected in November.
- Bree Fram (D): It’s not really clear on her website, but as far as I’m aware, she’s still running in VA11.
