2026 Elections

A Few Thoughts on a Possible Olivia Troye Candidacy in (the New) VA07; For Instance, Could She Pass the “Jim Webb Test”?

In short, can a former Republican (or even Trump White House official) explain, articulately and convincingly, why they're now a Democrat?

UPDATED 4/14: Olivia Troye announces her candidacy, says “I’ve seen firsthand the chaos inside Donald Trump’s administration. And I’ve seen firsthand how his extreme plans are hurting Virginia’s families. I won’t sit by any longer. So today, I’m launching my campaign for Congress. I’m going to fight like hell to undo the harm that Donald Trump has done to hardworking Americans – but I can’t do it alone…”

This morning, we got information (see below) indicating that Olivia Troye might be running for the new (assuming the redistricting amendment passes) “blue-lobster”-shaped VA07 (see screenshot, below). If Troye runs, she’d be the…I dunno, kinda losing track of how many Democrats might be running for this “blue” seat, lol. In all seriousness, though, the Democratic candidates I’ve got so far include: Del. Adele McClure, Del. Dan Helmer, former Virginia First Lady Dorothy McAuliffe, former  Jack Smith principal deputy JP Cooney, State Sen. Saddam Salim, Dave Kennedy – and others potentially (e.g., Del. Elizabeth Guzman).  I’ve got a few thoughts on Olivia Troye’s potential candidacy, but first, here’s some quick background on who she is:

Olivia Troye (born November 19, 1976) is an American national security official who worked on national security and homeland security issues at the Department of Defense, National Counterterrorism Center, the United States Department of Energy Office of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, and the DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis.

She went on to work in the Office of the Vice President of the United States as the Homeland Security and Counterterrorism advisor to Vice President Mike Pence and also served on the White House Coronavirus Task Force as Pence’s lead staffer on the Task Force.

She resigned from the White House in August 2020.

According to CNN, in 2020, Troye was a lifelong Republican.[15] She described herself as a “John McCain Republican” in a video released by Republican Voters Against Trump.[16]

In 2020, Troye, along with over 130 other former Republican national security officials, signed a statement that asserted that President Trump was unfit to serve another term, and “To that end, we are firmly convinced that it is in the best interest of our nation that Vice President Joe Biden be elected as the next President of the United States, and we will vote for him.”[17]

Since 2020, Troye has remained an outspoken critic of Donald Trump and extremism in the Republican Party. She appeared as a surrogate[18] on the Biden Harris Presidential Campaign, and spoke at the 2024 Democratic National Convention.[19] She has resided in the Northern Virginia area for over 20 years. She is the daughter of a Mexican immigrant who became a U.S. Citizen[20] and the daughter of a life long truck driver.[21]

Also, check out this video of Troye being questioned by Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-VA11) back in November 2023 about Trump wanting to use the military against peaceful protesters, and against the pushback he received at the time…

So with that, here are a few thoughts about a potential Olivia Troye Democratic candidacy in VA07.

First off, I’d want to know if Troye could pass the “Jim Webb test.” As I wrote back in 2018 about my meeting with Webb in December 2005, as we considered gearing up a “Draft Webb” movement to run as a Democrat against Republican incumbent US Senator George Allen:

So the bottom line for me is that, in the past, I’ve been all about – as Jim Webb liked to say – seeking out converts (to the Democratic Party) rather than “heretics to burn at the stake.” Of course, with Webb, my first question to him when we met in December 2005 was why someone who had worked for Reagan (as Navy Secretary, no less) had decided to become a Democrat. The response was, as I recall it, a 20-minute-or-so discourse on the history and evolution of the Republican and Democratic parties, how the Democrats were the only hope for working people, how the health of a society needs to be measured at its base and not at its apex, how the GOP had gone “off the right-wing deep end,” etc.

So that’s my “Jim Webb test” for Democratic candidates who used to vote Republican: can you explain, articulately and convincingly, why you used to vote Republican (or even serve in a Republican administration) but are now a Democrat?

Second, and related to the first point, I’d want to know about Troye’s positions on the issues – not for “purity” or whatever, but because for a district like the new VA07, which would be strongly Democratic, I’d certainly want a “real” Democrat in the seat, which means – in addition to being pro-democracy, which Troye clearly is – pro-choice, pro-climate-science, pro-working-people, pro-legal-immigration, pro-LGBTQ equality, pro-civil-liberties, pro-civil-rights, etc.

Third, would Troye be able to raise the money ($1 million-plus?) to be a serious candidate in this expensive-media-market, Northern Virginia seat? Also, would she be able to differentiate herself from other pro-democracy, anti-Trump candidates already in the race, including those with strong Democratic credentials?

Finally, would more candidates end up splintering the field and end up helping Dorothy McAuliffe, since she’s got the “biggest name” and also will almost certainly have (by far?) the most money in the field?

Anyway, those are a few thoughts; curious what other people thing about a possible Olivia Troye candidacy in VA07. 🙂

 

 

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