If the NY Times/Siena Poll (D+11 Among RVs; D+14 Among “Almost Certain/Very Likely” to Vote) Is Correct, VA Dems Could Pick Up Three US House Seats in November

Of course, we’re all (rigthfully!) frustrated, angry, etc. about four partisan Republicans on the Virginia Supreme Court effectively tossing out the votes of millions of Virginians on the redistricting amendment.  But that doesn’t mean all hope is lost for Democrats’ chances of winning back the U.S. House this November – far from it, actually.  For starters, Democrats only need to pick up half a dozen seats or so to make Hakeem Jeffries the next Speaker.  Of course, rampant gerrymandering – particularly in the “red” states – means that there are fewer competitive US House districts than there used to be:

Before the 2011 round of redistricting, there were approximately 143 competitive seats across the country that were within 10 points at the presidential level in 2008, according to data from the Daily Kos. Afterward, there were approximately 119 seats in that range left. In 2020, there were 93 seats within 10 points at the presidential level; after redistricting in 2021, that number fell to 79. For this year’s midterms, the continued drop in battlegrounds makes a potential Democratic wave likely to be smaller…

…The six competitive seats taken away by redistricting in the past year are only a small fraction of the 435 total districts across the country. But they are twice the current margin of control in the House.

So that’s not great at all for democracy, and we absolutely need national legislation to enact a whole host of election reforms, including the outlawing of partisan gerrymandering. Of course, we had legislation – the For the People Act (HR1) – that was “intended to expand voting rights, change campaign finance laws to reduce the influence of money in politics, ban partisan gerrymandering, and create new ethics rules for federal officeholders.” And, as you may recall, HR1 passed the US House in 2021, on a near-party-line vote (Democrats near unanimous in support, Republicans in opposition), but then was killed in the US Senate due to Republican opposition and Democrats’ inability to kill or weaken the filibuster to allow for HR1’s passage. Making matters even worse, of course, has been the 6-3 far-right, corrupt, illegitimate, etc. US Supreme Court, which has gutted the Voting Rights Act and opened the door to a horrific rollback in minority representation, largely in deep-red states in the former Confederacy (go figure, right?).  And, of course, as Sen. Mark Warner accurately stated the other day, it now  feels like “there’s one set of rules for Democrats, another set of rules for Republicans.” Which is really, really bad – and not sustainable, at all, for democracy.

Anyway, with that depressing, maddening intro, let’s now move on to some good news: namely, that thanks to Trump being wildly unpopular, his Trumpified Republican Party is currently headed towards what looks at this point like it’s shaping up to be a “blue wave” or even “blue tsunami” midterm election in November. The latest proof point on that is this morning’s new NY Times/Siena poll, which has Trump’s approval rating at a pathetic 37%-59% (-22 points; still far too high, by the way, but still terrible for his party headed into the fall); Democrats up 11 points (50%-39%) in the “generic ballot), and Democrats up even higher (14 points) when you focus on voters who are “almost certain/very likely” to vote. Of course, sure, the NY Times/Siena results are just one poll, except that a big “generic” lead for Democrats is what a lot of polling has been saying of late – see here and here, for instance.

So here in Virginia, in anything like the “blue wave” (or even “blue tsunami”) political environment that currently looks possible for November, if the new US House maps had actually taken effect, we were talking about Democrats getting to 10D-1R, up from the current 6D-5R, with the only safe-Republican district being VA09, home of the egregiously awful Rep. Morgan Griffith.  In other words, it would have been “bye bye’ to Rep. Rob Wittman (R-VA01), Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-VA02), Rep. John McGuire (R-VA05) and Rep. Ben Cline (R-VA06). And now, after the redistricting amendment was killed? Given the current political environment, IF it holds (or even strengthens) into the fall, we’re likely talking about the following:

• VA01: This district went by 5 points to Trump in 2024, with Rep. Rob Wittman (R) winning reelection by 13 points. So if the latest NY Times/Siena poll is accurate, and the “generic” Democratic lead for U.S. House is now 11 points, or even 14 points, you can see that Wittman is very much vulnerable, with a strong Democratic nominee of course, although obviously Wittman is the incumbent and has a huge warchest, so it’s not going to be easy. Still, VA01 would most definitely be winnable for Democrats in November if the political environment is anything like D+11, D+14 or whatever. Maybe a 50/50 shot here for Democrats, or even higher if it’s a strong “blue wave” or “blue tsunami” political environment this fall?
• VA02: This district was basically tied between Trump and Harris in 2024, with Sen. Tim Kaine winning it by 3 points, and with Rep. Jen Kiggans (R) winning reelection by 4 points. So this November, given a D+11 or D+14 political environment (or heck, even if it’s D+5 or whatever), Kiggans is in deep, deep you-know-what, especially against a strong Democratic opponent, such as former Rep. Elaine Luria (D-VA02), who appears almost certain to be the Democratic nominee against her. I’d say given a “blue wave” political environment and a Luria vs. Kiggans matchup, it’s like an 80% or higher chance that Democrats will pick up this seat.
• VA05: This district is tougher than VA01 or VA02, for sure, having gone for Trump by 12 points in 2024, and for Rep. John McGuire (R-VA05) by 15 points in that same election. Still, in a D+11 or D+14 political environment, McGuire absolutely could be in jeopardy, especially given a VERY strong Democratic opponent, such as (almost certainy) former Rep. Tom Perriello (D-VA05). Maybe a 1 in 3 shot at the moment for Democrats?
• VA06: This district is VERY red, with Trump winning it by 24 points in 2024, and with Rep. Ben Cline (R-VA06) winning reelection by 28 points in that same election. So, unfortunately, even in a “blue wave” or “blue tsunami” political environment, Cline appears safe, even against a strong Democratic nominee, such as Beth Macy. Maybe a 5% or lower shot here for Democrats?
• VA07: This district is “purple” (Harris +2.7 points), so it absolutely could be competitive in a relatively neutral or “red” political environment. But given a “blue wave” or “blue tsunami” political environment, as the NY Times/Siena poll indicates could be on the way, Rep. Eugene Vindman (D-VA07) should be fine…probably a 90% or greater chance of reelection in this environment.
• VA09: Just for completeness purposes, and for the record, VA09 isn ‘t reallistically winnable by Democrats under any circumstances, given that this is one of the reddest, Trumpiest, most MAGA districts in the entire country, with Trump winning by 44 points (!) in 2024, and with Rep. Morgan Griffith (R) winning releection by 45 (!) points in that same election. It’s truly astounding when you consider that heading into the 2010 midterms, VA09 was represented by the excellent Rick Boucher (D), but then collectively decided to massively downgrade their representation in the US House, going from Boucher to the egregiously awful Griffith. Bizarre.
• VA03 (Harris +35 points), VA04 (Harris +32 points), VA08 (Harris +49 points), VA10 (Harris +8.5 points), VA11 (Harris +34 points): Also, just for the record, these are all safe-Democratic seats, certainly in a “blue” political environment – Rep. Bobby Scott (D-VA03), Rep. Jennifer McClellan (D-VA04), Rep. Don Beyer (D-VA08), Rep. Suhas Subramanyam (D-VA10), Rep. James Walkinshaw (D-VA11).

In sum, if the NY Times/Siena poll is indicative of where the political environment might be come this fall, we’re talking about Democrats almost certainly picking up 1 seat (VA02), quite possibly two seats (VA02 and VA01), and possibly three seats (VA02, VA01, VA05) in Virginia in November (a pickup of three seats would get us to 9D-2R, not much worse than 10D-1R as likely would have been the case with the new maps). And again, remember that Democrats only need to pick up about half a dozen seats nationally to win back the US House and make Hakeem Jeffries the next Speaker.  So let’s do our part here in Virginia and MAKE IT SO, as Jean-Luc Picard likes to say!

P.S. A few more notes about stuff I found interesting in the NY Times/Siena poll:  Trump’s at just 13% approval among African Americans, 20% approval among Hispanics and 29% among “other”; Trump’s at just 29% approval among women (57% of women STRONGLY disapprove of him), while 44% of men approve of Trump (WTF, men???); the base of Trump’s support is white/no-college, where he’s still at 52% approval, despite the fact that he’s harming them greatly (racism, misogyny, xenophobia, etc. are POWERFUL drugs, apparently!); Democrats win the “generic ballot” among women by 25 points (58%-33%), while they trail by 6 points among men (again, WTF, men???).