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Early voting in Virginia started this past Friday, September 18, and will continue through the Saturday before election day (November 3). So it’s VERY early, and it’s important not to read too much into these early vote numbers. Having said that, here’s where we stand at this point, per VPAP, Election Lab, etc.
- First, per VPAP, early votes cast as of September 20 this year are 34,512, which compares to 10,401 early votes cast at the same point (45 days before Election Day) in the 2022 midterms. Of course, keep in mind that every election cycle is different, sometimes significantly so; for instance, in 2022, there was no statewide race, which there IS this year (for U.S. Senate between Mark Warner and Republican nominee Bert Mizusawa). Also, I’d suspect that this year, more Democrats will feel the urgency to vote early, and specifically IN PERSON (maybe we’ll see significant shifting away from voting by mail and instead voting in person?), given the dire crisis we’re in thanks to Trump, the Republican Congress, etc., plus also the lack of trust in the US Postal Service (under a Trump crony’s “leadership”) to deliver absentee ballots. In short, historical comparisons are almost never exactly “apples-to-apples” comparisons, but they’re interesting nonetheless…with caveats.
- Next, per the University of Florida’s Election Lab 2026 early voting website, you can see the number of mail ballots requested (421,690) so far, as well as the total early votes cast (34,512), etc.
- You can also see WHERE those votes are being cast; I’ve sorted them in descending quantitative order.
- The top Virginia early vote jurisdictions, at this VERY early date, are heavily BLUE (Fairfax, Henrico, Loudoun, Prince William, Norfolk Arlington, Albemarle, etc.) and to a much lesser extent purple (VA Beach, James City County, Chesterfield)…with red areas (e.g., York, Hanover) way behind.
- The lowest numbers for early voting are in red areas (e.g., in VA09 and VA06).
- Also, check out State Navigate, which reported yesterday:
“Coming this week: our Virginia early voting tracker. Our very early, rough modeling suggests the early in-person vote is about 4 points bluer than the same-day equivalent in 2025. However, 7 localities have yet to report their IPEV numbers; most are small R localities.
Top 5 localities as a % of same-day equivalent in 2025 (excl. any localities that didn’t report their IPEV by this point last year): Dickenson County – 228% 2025 IPEV SDE Page County – 171% Charlottesville City – 165% Emporia City – 164% Prince William County – 151%
Bottom 5 (excl. any localities that haven’t reported their IPEV yet) Covington City 29% Richmond County (not to be confused w/ city) 38% Russell County 40% Prince George 41% Dinwiddie 43%
We’ll be launching our VA EV tracker later in the week. It is the most advanced early voting tracker in the Commonwealth of Virginia. It will be using the same methodology and format as our redistricting referendum tracker from earlier this year.
https://t.co/Rz4DpJpOv1
(also from Chaz Nuttycombe of State Navigate: “Good start for Perriello’s underdog campaign. He’s gotta blast the doors off in early voting and run a robust, 2025-esque same-day-registration operation for UVA & Longwood students to pull off a 2008-style upset.”)
- Definitely see DJSokeSpeaking’s Twitter feed, which is excellent as always: “Fairfax was 99% of Day 1 2025 on Friday but did 104% of its Sat number to now also be ahead of 2025 It’s very very early but def an enthusiastic start from VA Ds”; “This is a very difficult district for Perriello but the day 1 EV numbers are frying me just a little”; “VA EV Day 1: Turnout overall down from last year’s day 1, but it seems like Harris-won localities held up better Harris won 38 of the 112 localities w/ proper data here. But she won 17 of the 29 that exceeded 2025’s Day 1”
I’ll add more information as I see it. Meanwhile, let’s all make sure we vote EARLY, preferably IN-PERSON – needless to say, Democratic up and down the ballot, plus YES on all three constitutional amendments on the ballot!
