Yesterday, an Emerson College poll of the 2025 Virginia governor’s race had Democrat Abigail Spanberger up just 1 point over Lt. Governor Winsome Sears (R). Now, we have another new poll, this time by Mason-Dixon, which has “Earle-Sears trail[ing] Spanberger 44% to 47%, while holding a slight lead over U.S. Rep. Bobby Scott, Newport News, with 46% to 44%.” So either way, a VERY tight race at this point, but obviously it’s super early, and a LOT can and likely WILL change between now and the fall. That includes Trump’s approval rating, which at this point we have no idea what it will be by September/October. My guess is that it will be much lower than it is right now, but who the hell knows. Regardless, as I argued yesterday, we absolutely should NOT get overconfident about this race, let alone take it for granted!
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