Per VPAP, see below for “how much candidates for the Virginia House of Delegates raised in 2024, grouped by the partisanship of their district according to the VPAP Index.” A few things that jump out at me include:
- Speaker Don Scott (D) has a ton of money, which will come in very handy this year in protecting his slim, 51-49 Democratic House majority, and hopefully INCREASING that majority by a few seats (note: the VPAP index rates 10/100 VA House of Delegates seats as “competitive,” so hopefully Democrats can pick up a few of those).
- Regarding the House of Delegates seats rated as “competitive,” it’s great to see Democrat Kimberly Pope Adams significantly outpacing Republican incumbent Kim Taylor in HD82, and also with a cash-on-hand advantage. According to VPAP, HD82 was won by Kamala Harris by 4 points in November, and by Tim Kaine by 7.5 points, so it is DEFINITELY winnable for Democrats this November!
- In several seats rated as “competitive,” Democrats COULD win them this November, but they’re facing incumbents with fundraising advantages in several of them, such as HD71 (Republican Del. Amanda Batten; Kamala Harris won this district by 5 points) and HD75 (Republican Del. Carrie Coyner; Kamala Harris won this district by 6 points). Also, remember that the vast majority of incumbents win reelection, and that to defeat them, the challenging party needs a VERY strong nominee with lots of resources to communicate with voters. So let’s hope that’s what happens in these two districts.
- Another winnable district for Democrats is HD57, which Kamala Harris won by a whopping 9 (!) points in November. Currently, the Republican incumbent, Del. David Owen, has the fundraising advantage over his potential Democratic opponents (e.g., May Nivar has $48k cash on hand vs. Owen’s $129k). Presumably, House Dems will pour resources into this district, given the fact that Owen his HIGHLY vulnerable (arguably, he only won in 2023 -by just 2 points at that – because of *massive* negative publicity in the media around the Democratic nominee, Susanna Gibson).
- In HD97, incumbent Democratic Del. Michael Feggans has a large fundraising advantage over Republican former Del. Tim Anderson, who is challenging Feggans. Let’s make sure it stays that way in this blue-leaning district (Kamala Harris won it by 8 points in November).
Anyway, those are just a few things that jump out at me at a glance, definitely not comprehensive by any means. What jumps out at you?
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