Virginia Primary Day (8/4/26): Open Thread, Info on the Candidates, Plus Predictions and Preferences

Today is *finally* primary election day in Virginia; polls are open from 6 am to 7 pm, and you can vote at your regular polling location.   I say “finally” because normally, these primaries are held in mid-June, but this year, the schedule was scrambled due to the redistricting amendment, which forced a postponement of the primaries to allow enough time for candidates to file in the (assumed) new districts…so much for that plan, right?  Sigh.   Anyway, we’ve now arrived at primary day, albeit a couple months later than normal – are you feeling any excitement, or are you more like, “wait, there are primaries in early August, WTF?”  Haha.

So first of all, here’s a list of the primaries that will be taking place today: a statewide primary (for US Senate) on the GOP side, no statewide primary on the Deemocratic side; US House primaries for the Democrats in VA01, VA02, VA05, VA08 and VA), and for the Republicans in VA05, VA07 and VA10; Democratic primaries for Arlington County Board, Chesterfield Board of Supervisors, Harrisonburg City Council, Montgomery County Sheriff, and Roanoke City Council. For a more detailed list, see below.

The federal candidates, are:

• For US Senate (on the Republican side to take on Sen. Mark Warner this fall): Bert Mizusawa (check this guy out; he’s a MAGA extremist loon all the way, yet he’s the frontrunner by all accounts!), Kim Farington, David Williams
• For VA01 (on the Democratic side): Elizabeth Dempsey Beggs, Salaam Bhatti, Tim Cywinski, Jason Knapp, Ericka Kopp, Shannon Taylor (the presumed frontrunner). For more background on these candidates, see here (Blue Virginia) and here (the excellent Wittman Watch).
• For VA02 (on the Democratic side): Nila Devanath, Bill Fleming, former Rep. Elaine Luria (the presumed frontrunner), Patrick Mosolf
• For VA05 (on the Democratic side): Suzanne Krzyzanowski, former Rep. Tom Perriello (the presumed frontrunner), Rob Tracinski
• For VA05 (on the Republican side): Rep. John McGuire (the presumed frontrunner – also a slimeball and far-right nutjob), Melanie Lucero
• For VA07 (on the Republican side): Philip Harding, Douglas Olivant, Ricky Smithers
• For VA08 (on the Democratic side): Rep. Don Beyer (the presumed favorite), Lorena Bruner, Michael Duffin, Adam Dunigan, Mo Seifeldein. For video and highlights from the June 28 Fairfax Dems VA08 forum and the 7/1 Arlington Dems VA08 forum, see here.
• For VA09 (on the Democratic side): Douglas Crockett, Adam Murphy, Joy Powers. For video from a recent VA09 Dems forum, see here.
• For VA10 (on the Republican side): Dave Beckwith, Julie Perry, Anthony Suttles

The local candidates are:

• For Arlington County Board (on the Democratic side): County Board Chair Matt de Ferranti (the presumed favorite), James DeVita, Julie Farnam
• For Chesterfield County Board of Supervisors (Dale District; on the Democratic side): LeQuan Monnier Hylton, Kathryn M. Crosby
• Harrisonburg City Council  (on the Democratic side):  Krista Nichole Gross, Monica Lynn Robinson, Dany Fleming, Kathy Meredith Hendley
• Roanoke City Council (on the Democratic side – top three finishers): Harvey D Brookins, Raekwon Moore, Peter Volosin, Vivian Sanchez-Jones, Shannon Clawson
• Note: I’m not clear about who the candidates are in the Montgomery County Sheriff’s primary listed by the State Board of Elections

PREDICTIONS/PREFERENCES:

• US Senate GOP: Bert Mizusawa, a MAGA extremist loon all the way, will likely win the Virginia GOP’s US Senate primary today. That’s fine with me, as the guy’s a nut, with a bunch of crazy stuff he’s said on audio or video, which Sen. Warner can use against him, and also which Virginia Democratic U.S. House candidates can use against their opponents, asking them if they agree with the top of their ticket that birthright citizenship is a “post-Civil War loophole,” that Trump should run for an unconstitutional third term, that the ballroom is a great idea, that Russia’s attempts to help elect Trump in 2016 were a “hoax,” etc, etc, etc.
• VA01 Democrats: Shannon Taylor is highly likely to win, the question being whether she breaks 50% or not. I don’t really have a strong preference in this race, although Taylor will be a solid nominee (assuming she wins; I’m guessing she ends up with 40% or so). I’ve also been impressed with Tim Cywinski’s campaign, particularly his videos, townhalls on subjects like data centers, etc.
• VA02 Democrats: Elaine Luria will almost certainly win big, the only question being HOW big. I definitely think that Luria will be the strongest nominee against the deplorable Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-VA02); plus, Luria’s an American hero for her service to our country in the US Navy and also on the 1/6/21 committee, etc., so overall I’ll be pleased if she’s the nominee.
• VA05 Democrats: Tom Perriello will almost certainly win big, the only question being HOW big. I definitely think that Perriello will be the strongest nominee against far-right-extremist/insurrectionist/embarrassment Rep. John McGuire (R-VA05); plus, Perriello was a superb member of Congress (albeit only for one term), taking courageous and consequential votes on “Obamacare,” “cap-and-trade,” etc. while there, and having the balls-of-steel to face his constituents in some truly wild, raucous town halls. So he’s just the candidate to take on Rep. John McGuire this fall and hopefully overcome the district’s Republican lean for the win!
• VA07 GOP: Doug Olivant seems to be the strong favorite in this one; he can’t even put out the correct map of his district, so having him as opponent should be fine with Rep. Eugene Vindman (D-VA07) – LOL.
• VA08 Democrats: Rep. Don Beyer will almost certainly win big, the only question being HOW big. I see no reason to replace Beyer at this point; although certainly he’s getting up there in age, he’s still effective…presumably he’ll retire either in 2028 or 2030?
• VA09 Democrats: Joy Powers appears to be the favorite here. I don’t have a preference here; simply don’t know that much about the candidates, plus it’s one of the reddest districts in the country, unfortunately…
• VA10 GOP: Dave Beckwith appears to be the favorite here. I have no particular prefernce for who Republicans nominate in VA10 to get crushed by Rep. Suhas Subramanyam (D-VA10) in November.
• Arlington County Board Democrats: Matt de Ferranti is the strong favorite here. He’s also my strong preference, as he’s been doing an excellent job and most definitely deserves another term.
• I don’t know enough to weigh in on the other races; anyone have any thoughts on those?

So…anything else you’re curious about regarding these primaries? Any other information you’re looking for? What are you seeing and hearing out there?