| Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... |
I’ve seen a few articles on the topic of whether “progressive” candidates showed any signs of gaining momentum in this year’s Virginia Democratic primaries on August 4. But I haven’t really seen any attempt to look back historically, district by district, to see if any trends are discernable. Also…no, quoting the head of a right-wing think tank (see this Virginian-Pilot article) as one of your main pieces of “evidence” for progressives/the left gaining momentum in Virginia is not serious. So anyway, let’s take a look at Virginia’s U.S. House districts, one by one, and see what’s happened since 2018 (the midterm election during Trump’s first term) in each, when it comes to left-leaning/DSA/highly progressive candidates – or lack thereof.
VA01: In 2018, a pretty much “mainstream” (note: I’m using words like “mainstream,” “moderate,” “establishment,” “progressive” and “left” in this article, even though they’re all kind of fuzzy, vague, etc, simply because I can’t think of any better adjectives at the moment – suggestions? Also, there’s a lot of overlap between several of those adjectives…) Democratic candidate, Vangie Williams, won with 40% of the vote in a three-way Democratic primary over an arguably more progressive candidate (Edwin Santana, who got 32.9% of the vote) and a fairly “moderate” candidate, John Suddarth (who got 27.1% of the vote). Then in 2020, a strongly left-leaning candidate, Qasim Rashid, won the Democratic primary with 52.5% of the vote, over Vangie Williams. There was no Democratic primary in 2022, when “mainstream” Democrat Herb Jones was the nominee. Then in 2024, a pretty much “mainstream” Democrat, Leslie Mehta, defeated Jones. Finally, this year, “moderate”/”mainstream” Democrat Shannon Taylor got 52.9% of the vote against six other candidates, of which four (Salaam Bhatti, Elizabeth Dempsey Beggs, Tim Cywinski, Ericka Kopp – got 19.8%, 7.2%, 3.0%, 2.8% respectively) were arguably left-leaning, while two others (Jason Knapp and Mel Tull, who got 9.9% and 4.3%, respectively) were arguably more “moderate” Democrats. So in the end, the left-leaning VA01 Democratic primary candidates in 2026 got about 33% of the vote, which is lower than the 52.5% Qasim Rashid got in 2020, but arguably similar to 2018 (when Edwin Santana got about 33% of the vote) and lower than other years, when there arguably were no left-leaning candidates running. OVERALL VERDICT: Mixed; no clear sign of gains by the “left”/DSA, but no real dropoff either?
VA02: In 2018, “moderate”/”mainstream” Democrat Elaine Luria defeated relatively more left-leaning (although certainly not far-left by any means) Democrat Karen Mallard by a 62%-38% margin in that year’s Democratic primary. In 2020 and 2022, there were no Democratic primaries in VA02. Then in 2024, “moderate” Democrat Missy Cotter Smasal defeated “mainstream” Democrat Jake Denton in the primary 70%-30%. As for this year, Elaine Luria defeated three Democratic primary opponents, of whom one (Nila Devanath) definitely ran to the “left,” by a massive 80%-20% overall margin (Devanath got 16%). OVERALL VERDICT: Again, pretty mixed, but no clear signs of gains by the “left”/DSA since 2018.
VA03: Rep. Bobby Scott, a “mainstream”/”establishment” liberal Democrat, hasn’t faced a primary since he first won the nomination and the seat in 1992. OVERALL VERDICT: No signs of any gains by the “left”/DSA in this district.
VA04: Rep. Jennifer McClellan, a “mainstream”/”establishment” liberal Democrat, was first nominated by an overwhelming margin in 2022, following the death of Rep. Donald McEachin (another “mainstream” liberal Democrat), and has not faced a primary since then. OVERALL VERDICT: No signs of any gains by the “left”/DSA in this district.
VA05: In this reddish/purple district, “mainstream”/”moderate” Democrat Tom Perriello won the nomination with 80% of the vote this year, after “mainstream” Democrat Gloria Witt was the nominee in 2024, “mainstream” Democrat Josh Throneburg was the nominee in 2022, “mainstram” Democrat Cameron Webb was the nominee in 2020, “mainstream” Democrat Leslie Cockburn was the nominee in 2018. Sensing a pattern here? 😉 OVERALL VERDICT: No signs of any gains by the “left”/DSA in this district.
VA06: In this deep-red district, “mainstream” Democrat Beth Macy was unopposed for the nomination this year. In 2024, “moderate” Democrat Ken Mitchell was the nominee, after left-leaning Jennifer Lewis was the nominee in 2022 and 2018 (Nicholas Betts was the Democratic nominee in 2020). OVERALL VERDICT: No signs of any gains by the “left”/DSA in this district; if anything, it’s gone a bit the other way, as Beth Macy is not as “left”-leaning as Jennifer Lewis.
VA07: In this “purple” district, “mainstream”/”moderate” Democratic incumbent Rep. Eugene Vindman didn’t face any primary opposition, after first winning the nomination in 2024, with 49% of the vote over six Democratic primary opponents, most of whom could be described as “mainstream” Democrats (the one possible exception, Elizabeth Guzman, is pretty “left” – and got 15.1% of the vote in that primary). Prior to 2024, this district was represented by “mainstream”/’moderate” Democrat Abigail Spanberger since she first won the seat in 2018 (winning the primary over another “moderate” Democrat, Dan Ward). OVERALL VERDICT: No signs of any gains by the “left”/DSA in this district.
VA08: In this deep-blue district, “mainstream”/”establishment” liberal Democratic incumbent Rep. Don Beyer won the nomination overwhelmingly on 8/4/26, with 67% of the vote against four Democratic primary opponents, one of whom (Mo Seifeldein) definitely ran to the left,” and who received 18% of the vote. Previously, Rep. Beyer faced primaries in 2022 (he won with 78% over self-described “pragmatic progressive” Victoria Virasingh), and the first time he ran for the seat in 2014, when he won with 46% of the vote over six other Democratic candidates, most of whom could fairly be described as “mainstream” liberals/progressives/Democrats. OVERALL VERDICT: Mixed, in that arguably Beyer’s moved left, and also his top opponent this year was pretty “left”, although in the end he only got 18% of the vote.
VA09: In this deep-red district, a “mainstream” liberal Democrat, Joy Powers, won the nomination this year with 51.7% of the vote over an arguably more left-leaning opponent, Adam Murphy (36.3%), as well as another opponent, Douglas Crockett (12.0%). Prior to this year, the last time there was a Democratic primary in VA09 was back in 2018, when “mainstream” Democrat Anthony Flaccavento defeated also-“mainstream” Democrat Justin Santopietro 79%-21%.. OVERALL VERDICT: Mixed, but no clear sign of any “left”/DSA trend in this district.
VA10: This year, Rep. Suhas Subramanyam – a “mainstream,” “moderate” Democrat, faced no primary opposition, after he won the 2024 Democratic nomination with 30.4% of the vote over several other “mainstream” Democrats – Dan Helmer (26.6%), Eileen Filler-Corn (9.3%), Jennifer Boysko (9.1%), etc., plus more left-leaning (although not DSA or far-left by any means) Atif Qarni (10.7%). Prior to 2024, the district was represented by “moderate”/”mainstream” Democratic Rep. Jennifer Wexton, who faced no primary opponents since she first won the nomination (over mostly “moderate”/”mainstream” opponents) in 2018. OVERALL VERDICT: No signs of any gains by the “left”/DSA in this district.
VA11: This year, Rep. James Walkinshaw – a “mainstream” liberal Democrat, faced no primary opponent, a year after he first won the seat after the death of “moderate”/”mainstream” Democratic Rep. Gerry Connolly. In the special election Democratic “firehouse primary” in June 2025, Walkinshaw had won with 59.5% of the vote against nine opponents, most of whom fell into the “moderate” or “mainstream” Democratic category (Irene Shin, who is very liberal, got 14% of the vote to finish second). As for former Rep. Connolly, he’d held the seat since 2009, mostly without any primary challenges (the best a primary opponent did against Connolly was in 2020, with 22% of the vote). OVERALL VERDICT: James Walkinshaw is arguably a notch more progressive than Connolly, but definitely not DSA or “left wing” by any means, and there’s no particular sign of any gains by the “left”/DSA in this district.
****************
US Senate: By the way, it’s also worth noting that Sen. Mark Warner – a “moderate”/”establishment” Democrat, didn’t face any primary challenge this cycle. Nor did Sen. Tim Kaine, another “moderate”/”establishment” Democrat, in 2024. Nor did Warner or Kaine in 2020, 2018, 2014 or 2012. OVRALL VERDICT: No signs of any gains by the “left”/DSA for U.S. Senate in Virginia
BOTTOM LINE: I can’t find any particular signs of gains by the DSA or left-wing candidates for US Senate or US House in Virginia, looking back to 2018. As for *why* this is the case, I’d guess that Democratic voters in Virginia prioritize electability, but also that incumbents and well-funded candidates, better-known candidates, those endorsed by popular politicians, etc. have huge advantages over more “anti-establishment” or insurgent, left-wing, etc. candidates. Your thoughts?
P.S. Also, of course, “moderate” Democrat Abigail Spanberger won the governor’s race in a landslide last year, after not facing any primary opponent – “left” or otherwise. And in 2021, “moderate” Democrat Terry McAuliffe *easily* won the gubernatorial nomination over more “left”-leaning Jennifer Carroll Foy (also Jennifer McClellan, etc.); in 2017, “moderate” Democrat Ralph Northam defeated Tom Perriello; in 2013, Terry McAuliffe was unopposed for the nomination; in 2009, more conservative Democrat Creigh Deeds defeated more liberal Brian Moran and Terry McAuliffe for the nomination; in 2005 and 2001, “moderate” Democrats Tim Kaine and Mark Warner were the VA Dem gubernatorial nominees. And in 2006, former Reagan administration Navy Secretary Jim Webb won the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate over conservative Democrat Harris Miller. Sensing a pattern here? LOL
