Political Winners and Losers: 8/4/26 Virginia Primaries Edition

Here are a few “winners” and “losers” that I believe are worth highlighting from last night’s Virginia primary results.   As always, this list isn’t even close to comprehensive – nor is it intended to be (in part because it could go on for days…and at some point, enough is enough, lol!) – so please add “winners” and “losers” of your own in the comments section. By the way, it’s important to point out that you can be a “winner” even if you’re a right-wing Republican (e.g., McDonnell and Cuccinelli in 2009 were huge “winners,” even though they completely suck!) or whatever, and that you can be a “loser” even if you’re my favorite Democrat in the world, because in this context “winner” and “loser” is all about whether someone “won” or “lost” politically in this election cycle, not whether that makes me happy or not or whether it’s normatively a “good” or “bad” thing, per se.  With that…on to the “Winners”/”Mixed”/”Losers” from the Virginia Democratic and Republican primary results last night.

Winners

1. Sen. Mark Warner: This will be Warner’s last run for public office, as he’s stated for months now (although the moronic “mainstream” media keeps acting like it’s breaking news, lol), and it looks like he’s going to go out with a bang – likely winning HUGE in November, after not drawing any primary opponents, then getting to face a no-name, minimally financed, far-right extremist nutjob (Bert Mizusawa) as his Republican opponent this fall. So of course, Warner won’t take the election for granted, but the only question is by how wide a margin he defeats Mizusawa (15 points? 20 points+?) in November.
2. Rep. John McGuire (R-VA05): As much as I despise this Trump lackey, insurrectionist, MAGA extremist, and far-worse-than-worthless excuse for a Congressman, I’ve got to put McGuire on the “winners” list, because a) he worked his butt off leading up to the primary; b) he crushed his Republican opponent by 68 points; c) he got 41,746 votes, compared to just 29,537 votes for his Democratic general election opponent, Tom Perriello. So yeah, VA05 is potentially winnable for Democrats, but it’s going to be an uphill battle, requiring a “blue tsunami” political environment this fall, a superb campaign by Perriello, and hopefully some mistakes by McGuire. Fingers crossed.
3. The DCCC: They’ve seen a few losses nationally over the past few months, but here in Virginia, last night saw only victories for DCCC-backed “red-to-blue” candidates – Shannon Taylor in VA01, Elaine Luria in VA02 – plus incumbents and former incumbents in other districts. And they didn’t just win, they won BIG. So when it comes to Virginia, the DCCC has got to be very happy this morning.
4. “Centrist” Democrats/the “Establishment”: Related to that previous point, winners in Democratic primaries last night here in Virginia were basically all of the more “centrist” and/or “establishment” (whatever that word means, lol) wing of the party, whether we’re talking about the DCCC’s candidates, former Rep. Tom Perriello, or Rep. Don Beyer. In short, there’s no sign of a left-wing surge in Virginia, at least not based on last night’s results, or for that matter based on the fact that our governor, Abigail Spanberger, is pretty much the prototypical “centrist” Democrat.
5. Shannon Taylor: Taylor ran a mostly quiet primary campaign, assuming she’d win handily over a large field of largely unknown Democratic opponents with little money. And that’s exactly what happened. So this morning, Taylor heads into the fall campaign against Wittman in strong shape, having not had to spend a ton of money in the primary, and not really getting beaten up politically too much either (Democratic primaries can be NASTY, but this one – with a few exceptions – was pretty tame, overall).
6. Rep. Don Beyer (D-VA08): Last night, Beyer won by a massive 50 points over a former Alexandria City Council member who ran hard left, and several other candidates. So now Beyer’s assured of another term in the US House representing the deep-blue 8th congressional district. The only question for Beyer is his age, really, something that catches up with all of us eventually, But Beyer, by all indications, is still able to do the job at a high level, and also is willing to campaign hard to keep his job. Which is exactly what he did leading up to this primary.
7. Former Rep. Elaine Luria (D-VA02): After her 64-point primary win last night, Luria is now set for one of the marquee fall matchups in the entire country, against her former opponent, Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-VA02), who defeated Luria in November 2022 by 4 points. This November, it’s quite possible – maybe even highly probable, if you go by this forecast – that Luria will take back the seat she lost, making another big winner the people who live in VA02, as their representation will go from absymally bad with Kiggans to superb with Luria. Can’t wait!
8. Democratic incumbents who faced no primary challenges and should cruise to victory in November: I’d presume that Sen. Mark Warner, Rep. Bobby Scott (D-VA03), Rep. Jennifer McClellan (D-VA04), Rep. Eugene Vindman (D-VA07), Rep. Suhas Subramanyam (D-VA10) and Rep. James Walkinshaw (D-VA11) are very happy that they didn’t have to run primary campaigns. They’re also presumably happy that they’re in solid-blue districts, with the exception of Rep. Eugene Vindman, although he should be  in good shape heading into November against a little-known and minimally funded opponent.
9. Republican incumbents in deep-red districts who faced no primaries: Reps. Ben Cline (R-VA06) and Morgan Griffith (R-VA09) are both in deep-red, basically 100% “safe” districts, plus neither of them faced any primary opposition. Also note that Cline escaped, thanks to a 4R-3D partisan VA Supreme Court decision, having to run in a competitive district for once in his pathetic political career. Sigh…

Mixed

1. Bert Mizusawa: He won the VA GOP’s primary for US Senate by a big margin (51%-29%-20%), but now he’s on track to get annihilated by Sen. Mark Warner, so…yeah, congrats or something? Also, wait until Sen. Warner’s campaign starts highlighting how extreme/MAGA this guy is – birthright citizenship supposedly a “post-Civil War loophole,” Roe v Wade was “not good law for the Constitution,” he wants a Trump third term and is enthused about Trump’s corrupt/illegal ballroom, etc, etc. So sure, enjoy your primary win, Mr. Mizusawa, because that’s the last political victory you’re likely to have for a looong time, lol.
2. Candidates who ran and got crushed: On the one hand congratulations for stepping up and putting yourselves out there – that takes cojones!  But I mean, if you run for office, shouldn’t you at least have some plan – preferably a realistic, serious one – to be competitive, to get your message out widely, etc? So how does running with no money (and no particular prospect of raising any money), minimal media (social and otherwise) presence, etc., accomplish much of anything, especially if you end up in the single digits (or teens or whatever) after months of campaigning? I’m not going to call them out by name, other than Republicans Melanie Lucero in VA05 (lost by 68 points to John McGuire), Julie Perry in VA10 (lost by 52 points to Dave Beckwith), Kim Farington (lost by 31 points to Bert Mizusawa), etc. –  but you can see who I’m talking about here.
3. Tom Perriello: Former Rep. Perriello (D-VA05) won the Democratic primary last night overwhelmingly, with 80% of the vote, so that’s great!  On the not-so-great side, though, Perriello only got 29.5k votes, which is 12.5k fewer votes than his Republican opponent, Rep. John McGuire (R-VA05). And overall, VA05 Republicans cast about 50k votes, compared to just 37k votes by VA05 Democrats. So…let’s just say, Tom Perriello has his work cut out for him this fall. The good news is that Perriello is a hard worker, skilled campaigner, appealing candidate, etc.  – and he has a clear plan in his mind how to win – so…fingers crossed for November!
4. Matt de Ferranti, YIMBYs: In Arlington County the past few years, there’s been an ongoing fight over the idea of expanded housing opportunities (“Missing Middle”). So last night, in the Democratic primary for County Board, generally pro-“Missing Middle” candidate, incumbent Matt de Ferranti, won with 55% of the vote, which is a win of course – but looking at it another way, the two  “NIMBY” (anti-“Missing Middle”) candidates – Julie Farnam (backed by Republican/anti-“Missing Middle” former Board member John Vihstadt) and James DeVita (running hard against “Missing Middle”) – got 45% of the vote. On the flip side, the YIMBYs (“Yes In My Back Yard”) folks, of which I count myself as one, got the win, but only with 55% of the vote. So…yeah, “mixed” results on this one. (Note: turnout was VERY low, something like 12% of registered voters, and presumably not representative of the general electorate, probably skewed heavily towards single-family-home owners, older/whiter voters, etc.)
5. Gov. Abigail Spanberger: I wasn’t sure where to put her on this list, or whether to put her on this list at all, which is kind of the point – we really didn’t see or hear from her leading up to yesterday’s primaries; no big push to encourage Democrats to vote, for instance.  In general, Spanberger’s been super quiet recently; not sure what that’s all about, but it’s striking, and certainly makes one wonder if she’s bruised from her rough first seven months in office?
6. Republicans who won primaries, but are likely to lose badly in November: I mean, “congratulations” I guess (?) to Republican primary winners in VA07 (Douglas Ollivant)  and VA10 (Dave Beckwith), given that both are likely to lose badly in November – to Rep. Eugene Vindman (D-VA07) and Rep. Suhas Subramanyam (D-VA10), respectively.
7. Joy Powers: She won the Democratic primary in VA09 last night impressively (52%-36%), so congratulations on that!  Unfortunately, now she gets to run against entrenched incumbent Rep. Morgan Griffith (R-VA09), who is horrendously bad but also is in one of the reddest, “Trumpiest” districts in the entire country (Trump won it with 71%; Winsome Earle-Sears won it with 68%; Hung Cao won it with 67%; etc).

Losers

1. Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-VA02): It’s not a surprise, but Kiggans drew BY FAR the toughest opponent for November, in former Rep. Elaine Luria. Even before last night’s results, FiftyPlusOne had Democrats with an 87% chance of defeating Kiggans, and last night’s big primary victory (80%-16%) for Luria certainly does nothing to put a damper on that! Also note that Luria has raised a ton of money, with a bit more cash-on-hand than Kiggans, and far more money raised than Kiggans in 2Q26. So…yep, Kiggans is in deep, deep trouble, as well she should be given the HORRENDOUS job she’s done for her district, her sycophantic loyalty to Trump, her horrible votes in the US House on a wide range of issues, etc, etc.
2. Rep. Rob Wittman (R-VA01): Again, not a surprise, but Wittman definitely drew the strongest opponent for November, in Democrat Shannon Taylor. Before last night’s results, FiftyPlusOne had Democrats with a 60% chance of beating the slimy Wittman, and last night’s strong win for Taylor doesn’t hurt that in any way. In sum, this will be Wittman’s toughest general election ever, and one he very well could lose, assuming a “blue wave” in November, a strong campaign by Taylor, and voters being informed about what a pathetic joke Wittman’s been as their representative.
3. DSA/Left-wing: They’ve certainly had a few victories (very few, per Larry Sabato) around the country, and gotten a ton of media coverage for doing so, but here in Virginia, last night’s results saw ZERO left-wing/DSA candidates win Democratic US House primaries – or even come close. Instead, in VA01, VA02, VA05, and VA08, we saw DCCC-backed “mainstream” Democrats and incumbents win *easily*, with DSA/left-wing candidates faaaar behind (e.g., 64 points behind in VA02, 50 points behind in VA08, 33 points behind in VA01).  We’ll see if the left-wing/DSA has any success next year in Virginia House of Delegates and State Senate primaries, but as of right now, they don’t seem to be gaining any traction in the Commonwealth.
4. Peter Volosin: First elected to the Roanoke City Council in 2022, last night Volosin finished fourth out of five Democratic candidates, with just 13.5% of the vote. How much did this dispute cost Volosin?  We probably can’t know for sure, but it certainly didn’t help matters any for Volosin. Anyway, we’ll see if this is the end of Volosin’s political career, or if he manages to stage a comeback somewhere down the line.  On the positive side, Volosin issued a very classy concession statement last night – kudos to him for that! (BTW, the three winners in Roanoke last night were Raekwon Moore, S.M. “Danny” Clawson, Vivian Sanchez-Jones)
5. Internal “polls” by VA01 Democratic candidates (other than Shannon Taylor): I mean…what on earth was this poll (showing VA01 Democratic candidate Salaam Bhatti taking a 14-point lead over Shannon Taylor after voters were “informed” about their track records and backgrounds)? And what was this poll (showing VA01 Democratic candidate Elizabeth Dempsey Beggs leading with 43% of the vote after voters were “informed”)? So in the end, Bhatti got a respectable 20% of the vote, but lost to Taylor by 33 points; and Dempsey Beggs got 7% of the vote, losing to Taylor by 46 points. So apparently voters weren’t “informed” or something?  LOL
6. The “mainstream” political media:  Even by their pathetically low “standards,” absolutely ABYSMAL coverage – or more accurately, NON coverage – of the Virginia primary elections (e.g., check out the Bezos Post’s NON-coverage). As if their lack of coverage of the Virginia primaries, whether in terms of substance or even the “horse race,” wasn’t bad enough, the “mainstream” political media utterly whitewashed far-right Republican candidates – see here for several examples  regarding MAGA extremist Bert Mizusawa, who was the frontrunner for the VA GOP’s US Senate nomination, and is now the nominee; but you’d never have a CLUE that Mizusawa was a far-right nutjob from reading the whitewashing, sanewashing, normalizing, CRAP in the “mainstream” media. UGH.
7. Turnout/August 4 primary date: Due to the redistricting referendum, the normal Virginia primary date of mid-June was moved to early August, not exactly the best time of year for people to be thinking about politics, turning out to vote, etc. Also, it was probably confusing to at least some people who are used to voting in June. The net result of all that, combined with generally non-competitive primaries, was super-low voter turnout. And no, I don’t buy that voters are “exhausted,” as we haven’t had an election since April, and also it’s super easy to vote in Virginia, and of course it should be eveyone’s civic duty to vote – especially when our very democracy is in mortal danger and depends on citizens stepping up to the plate!

P.S. As an added bonus, is Glenn Youngkin a LOSER or what? Definitely smarmy. Definitely dishonest. Definitely a nutjob, the way he’s ranting here about “socialism,” “commmunism,” the “Democrat [sic] Party,” etc, etc. And THIS is the guy the “mainstream” political media relentlessly, and falsely, kept whitewashing as some sort of “moderate,” “normie Republican,” etc???