Forget the Warner part, as from everything I hear, he’s not going to be a candidate for governor next year (note that only 18% of Virginians want Warner to run in 2013). Instead, let’s focus on who the Democratic gubernatorial candidate is actually going to be – Terry McAuliffe. On that front, the news is generally good: McAuliffe tops Bill Bolling by 2 points (38%-36%) among Virginia registered voters (RVs) and bests Ken Kookinelli by 4 points (41%-37%). Of course, these results are among RVs, and usually what happens in off-year elections in Virginia is that the Democratic base tends to show up in relatively lower numbers than the Republican base, compared to presidential years. That’s why Virginia’s becoming a “blue” state in presidential years, but is still a “purple” state in gubernatorial years and a “red” state in off-off election years (e.g., 2015). Thus, the key for Democrats in 2013 will be to motivate their base to turn out in far larger numbers than we saw in 2009, when the Deeds campaign took the base for granted and hunkered down in “Deeds Country” (which they lost badly regardless – brilliant strategy, huh?).

Other findings from the poll that jumped out at me include:

*The vast majority (68%) of Virginians say they “haven’t heard enough” of Terry McAuliffe to have a “favorable” or “unfavorable” view. As a political junkie, that once again reminds me that I am not “normal,” in that most Virginians don’t pay a great deal of attention to politics. We’ll see what happens as Virginians become better acquainted with T-Mac, who presumably will be introduced in large part by the highly popular Bill Clinton.

*Also, despite the fact that he’s our state’s Attorney General, and also has been EXTREMELY (in both senses of that word) high profile, with his lawsuits against “Obamacare,” UVA, etc., Ken Cuccinelli is STILL an unknown quantity by 45% of Virginians. We’ll see what millions of dollars in advertising letting people know what a far-far-far-right-wing extremist this guy is will do to that number.

*Almost nobody knows who Bill Bolling is, which is not surprising, given how irrelevant he is. I mean, if the Vice Presidency of the United States was once compared to a bucket of warm spit (actually, it was another bodily fluid…yellowish in color), how about the equivalent in Virginia? LOL

*As usual, Mark Warner is by far the most popular politician in Virginia (60%-25%, +35 points approval rating). In contrast, Jim Webb has just a 44%-28% (+16 points) approval rating. My guess is that this is mostly about Warner getting out and around Virginia, while Webb mostly avoids doing so. In terms of their voting records, they’re not much different.

*Virginians like Barack Obama, giving him a 52%-44% approval rating. Who doesn’t like Obama? Basically, old, white, married, male, born-again/evangelicals. Who likes Obama? Basically everyone else.

*It is utterly absurd that only 29% of Virginians disapprove of Ken Cuccinelli’s handling of his job as AG. That number should be 100%, frankly, just on his witch hunt against climate scientist Michael Mann, let alone on his other wild goose chases and failures.

*Finally, Virginians are optimistic about the next four years with Barack Obama as president, but do NOT trust Republicans in Congress to “make a good faith effort to cooperate with President Obama and the Democrats on issues that are important to you.” My fellow Virginians are absolutely right about that one!

In August 2011, I wrote a blog post refuting Jon Huntsman’s argument that America is a “center-right country.” In fact, on issue after issue – abortion, energy, environment, food safety, guns, health policy, GLBT equality, taxes/deficit, corporate power, etc. – Americans when asked respond in ways that sure as heck don’t sound “center-right.” In fact, Americans want to keep their government retirement programs (Social Security, Medicare, etc.), want women to have the right to choose, want GLBT equality, want clean energy, want a healthy environment, want more controls on guns rather than fewer, want limits on the power of Wall Street and corporate power, on and on. In sum, based on their responses to polling questions, Americans are not only NOT center-right, they actually are quite progressive, even if they don’t call themselves by that label (possibly because it’s been absurdly, relentlessly demonized by the right).

Now, after the not-as-close-as-you-think reelection of Barack Obama – a cautious, centrist politician but with progressive instincts, just like the American people more broadly – in addition to Democratic successes in the House and Senate, not to mention passage of state initiatives in favor of gay marriage and marijuana legalization, it’s even harder than ever to argue that this is a “center-right nation.”  In fact, as Vivian Paige correctly points out, that’s nothing more than a myth. So why do Republicans maintain (narrow) control of the House of Representatives? The major reaons: partisan gerrymandering.

No offense to the losers in the House races, but the odds were stacked against you. The lines drawn make it almost impossible for a candidate of the opposite party to win. The most egregious example of this has to be the 3rd district, where the challenger received less than 19% of the vote. The closest contest was in the 2nd district, where the challenger lost by only 8%. The largest number of votes cast occurred in the 7th district, where a highly touted – and nationally recognized – Democratic candidate still managed to lose by 17 points.

Partisan redistricting results in fewer competitive races and fewer votes cast; the proof is in the numbers. Ours is not a center-right country nor is Virginia  a center-right state. Our country and our state are center – period. No left or right.

And it’s high time that our elections reflect that.

Of course, these labels themselves are a bit misleading, as the political “center” shifts over time. Today, for instance, the Republican Party has moved far, FAR to the right, almost off the John Bircher cliff, while Democrats are mostly in the traditional “center,” with no serious Progressive Party (Teddy Roosevelt style or otherwise) in existence. Thus, the U.S. political spectrum is more skewed to the right than it’s almost ever been in our history. It’s also far to the right of almost any other advanced, industrialized, Western nation. To put it another way: what’s “center” in America today would be “right wing” in the UK, Canada, Australia, etc. Yet, as we mentioned above, the American people on issue after issue give answers that can only be described as “progressive.” It’s a bizarre situation, and hopefully one that’s not tenable. Unfortunately, with both Republicans and Democrats having a common interest in keeping their incumbents as safe as possible (we see it here in Virginia, where despite a 51%-53% victory for Kaine and Obama, Republicans hold an 8-3 edge in the state’s Congressional delegation), this situation’s not likely to change anytime soon. Unless, of course, the people demand it loudly, clearly, and forcefully.  

More great work by filmmakers Eric Byler and Annabel Park, this time an interview with Rob Johnson, the small business owner in Harrisonburg who witnessed a Republican political operative trashing completed voter forms prior to this year’s elections.

Presenting live election returns as a sporting event makes for good television. At 9pm, Barack Obama & Mitt Romney are tied in the popular vote! The Virginia, Massachusetts and Montana Senate races are tied! Who will win? You have to stay tuned to find out!

But watching election returns minute-by-minute gives a biased view towards the states and even the precincts that count their votes early in the evening. Watching early totals presents a skewed presidential picture in any year, as California (6.2 million Obama votes) doesn’t even close its polls until 11pm ET.

This year the problem was even more pronounced than usual as voters in Democratic precincts faced significantly longer lines than voters in GOP precincts. In 59 voting divisions in Philadelphia, Obama beat Romney 19,605 to 0. That meant Democratic precincts were likely to report results later – and in some cases hours later – than their counterparts in Republican areas. Races that seemed surprisingly close early on turned out to be the solid Democratic wins everyone but Fox viewers expected.

So how has what we know about the election changed since Tuesday night?

• In the presidential race, the usual California lateness was compounded by slow vote counts in New York and New Jersey, both struggling in the wake of Sandy and both heavily Democratic. While Obama’s margin over Romney was around 2 million votes on Wednesday morning, today Obama’s lead stands at more than 3.4 million votes – a victory margin a Republican presidential candidate hasn’t posted since George H.W. Bush in 1988.
• “What’s going on in Virginia?” was a frequent theme on Election Night, as early returns had both Mitt Romney and George Allen leading. But Obama and Kaine came back as the night went along and now you wouldn’t even call the Senate race all that close – Tim Kaine ultimately won by 6 percent (over 186,000 votes). Meanwhile, President Obama won by 3 percent.
• It was a similar story in other Senate races. In Massachusetts, it took hours for the race to be called for Democrat Elizabeth Warren, but the final results show Warren soundly beating Scott Brown by 8 percent. The Montana Senate race wasn’t called until late Wednesday morning, but the final tally has Democrat Jon Tester beating Republican Denny Rehberg by 4 percent – not a blowout to be sure, but much more comfortable than you’d have thought on Election Night. (Side note: How has the media “called” Arizona for Republican Jeff Flake when over a quarter of the ballots, many from Democratic areas, still haven’t been counted?)
• And in the House, while networks raced to declare “PROJECTION: GOP MAINTAINS CONTROL OF HOUSE!” early, today the story is of Democratic pickup. Democrats have already gained 6 House seats and are leading in 4 of 5 uncalled races.

The danger comes when folks start using the election returns to make up their minds about what happened in the election. What you see before 11pm ET isn’t a proportional representation of what will happen later in the night – you have to watch those early numbers with a grain of salt. And that salt’s just the right color since it’s mostly Mitt Romney’s angry old white guy America counting the ballots early on.

So on future Election Nights, have fun watching the early returns roll in, but don’t make up your mind about the results until every vote’s been counted.