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Polls Looking Up For the Democrats

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I’m taking this cautiously and skeptically; still, I like the looks of these polls!

1. According to Political Wire, “A new Associated Press-GfK poll shows Democrats now leading the generic congressional ballot, 45% to 40%, a reversal from last month when Republicans led by three points.”

2. Gallup now has President Obama’s approval rating at the highest in three months, at 52%-41% (+11 points). We’ll see if it can hold at that level of increase further in coming weeks and months. I’m hoping Obama can reach 60% or so by the fall. If he does, Democrats will be in much better shape come November than they appear to be now.

3. Research 2000 now has President Obama’s favorable/unfavorable rating at 55%-40% (+15 points), with the “right track/wrong track” reading now at the highest level since July 9, 2009. Also, the voter intensity gap between Republicans and Democrats “narrowed noticeably this week,” to just 7 points (71%-64%). Finally, 52% of Americans now say they’d be more likely to vote for a candidate “who supports and will work to improve the new health care reform law”, while just 41% say they prefer “a candidate who will work to repeal it completely.”

The bottom line is this: if the economy keeps improving, and specifically if it keeps adding jobs at the rate we saw last month, then people will feel better about the country’s direction and more likely to keep incumbents in office. On the other hand, if the economy heads in the wrong direction between now and this fall, then I’d say we’re looking at a bad November for Democrats.  Other than that, Democrats need to be out there telling voters what historians already know: “President Obama’s legislative record during a crisis-ridden presidency already puts him in a league with such consequential presidents as Lyndon Johnson and Franklin Roosevelt.” That seems like the type of news you’d want to share with everybody! 🙂

  • I still expect Dems to lose seats in the fall.  Even to lose a lot of seats.  But I’m beginning to think that those losses won’t be as extensive or as 1994ish as I thought this time last year.  This is in part because the Republican party is the gift that keeps on giving (from a Democratic point of view) but also because the anti-incumbency feeling doesn’t seem as targeted against Democrats only as in 1994.  I was frankly very surprised by the Bennett loss in Utah, but somewhat heartened by the Oliverio defeat of Rep. Mollohan in WV.  I didn’t think that Mollahan could hold that seat, and while I’m not sure that Oliverio can win it, it is likely to make the race there much more competitive than it would have been.

    I’m also watching the former Murtha seat in PA — that was my husband’s district growing up.  That’s a very conservative district (and over the years, given population loss and redistricting, has only been structured to be more so.)  Even five years ago (let alone last year) I would have said that any Dem but Murtha was unlikely to hold it.  The fact that Dems are competitive there gives me some hope that this fall may not be the complete and utter bloodbath I was expecting.

  • VADEM

    very interested to see what happens in PA this Tues. with

    Specter. I hope Sestak crushes him.

    Obama’s “car in the ditch” talking point should be the rallying cry for all dems running up to the midterms.