Polls Are Closed, Results Open Thread

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    Please use this as an open thread to discuss the primary results – Virginia and national, if you wish – as they come in tonight.  Personally, I’m crossing my fingers for Bill Halter over Blanche Lincoln, plus the craziest, most far-right-wing, and hopefully least electable Republicans in every one of their contests. For instance, go Sharron Angle in Nevada!

    UPDATE 7:33 pm: Rob Wittman is annihilating Catherine Crabill, 89%-11%, with 47% of precincts reporting in.  Wittman is the winner.

    In the 11th CD, Keith Fimian is out to a 65%-35% lead over Pat Herrity, but with only 9.5% of precincts reporting.

    In the 8th CD, with 35% of precincts reporting, it’s Matthew Berry with a slight lead (52%-48%) over Patrick Murray.

    In the 5th CD, with 33% of precincts reporting, Robert Hurt leads at 40% of the vote, followed by Jim McKelvey at 31%, Mike McPadden at 11%, Ken Boyd at 10%, Feda Morton at 5%.

    UPDATE 7:37 pm: In the 2nd CD, with 26% of precincts reporting, it’s Scott Rigell at 40%, Bert Mizusawa at 29%, Ben Loyola at 19%.  Looking pretty good for Rigell so far.

    UPDATE 7:43 pm: With 53% of precincts reporting in the 5th CD, Robert Hurt is pulling away (46%) over Jim McKelvey (28%) and everyone else under 10%.  I think it’s fair to say that Hurt will win this one. If only the tea partiers could have united around 1 candidate; united they stand, divided they fall?

    UPDATE 7:48 pm: Wow, Pat Herrity is getting walloped by Keith Fimian with 25% of precincts reporting — 62% Fimian, 38% Herrity.  It looks like NLS nailed the call of Fimian over Herrity. Also, turnout appears on track to surpass Leslie Byrne’s key number of 30,000. We’ll see.

    UPDATE 7:52 pm: Scott Rigell is extending his lead in the 2nd CD with 37% of precincts reporting. Currently Rigell 41%, Loyola 23%, Mizusawa 21%. This one appears to be pretty much in the bag for Rigell.

    UPDATE 7:55 pm: Marc Ambinder tweets, “More evidence the Tea Party can’t organize its way out of a bag, politically: easy win for establishment candidate in VA 05….”

    UPDATE 7:56 pm: With 40% of precincts reporting in the 11th, Fimian is winning easily over Herrity, 62%-38%. Big win for Vincent Harris of Too Conservative; he was Fimian’s netroots guy on this one.  

    UPDATE 8:04 pm: With Hurt’s win in the 5th CD, the question is whether – and how many – independent candidates, “tea party” or otherwise, there will be.  Seems like Hurt winning makes it more likely, but we’ll have to see.

    UPDATE 8:07 pm: With 58% of precincts, it’s now Fimian 61%-Herrity 39%. What happened to Pat Herrity?!? He’s certainly no Jack Herrity!

    UPDATE 8:15 pm: In the 8th CD, with 74% of precincts reporting, Patrick Murray leads Matthew Berry by just 16 votes.  Most exciting race of the night so far!

    UPDATE 8:21 pm: Keith Fimian tweets, “WTOP has called me the winner of the election! Link coming soon.”

    UPDATE 8:24 pm: “Joe” the “Plumber”‘s pick in the 5th CD, Laurence Verga, ends up with just over 2% of the vote. Now that’s some plumbing power! Heh.

    UPDATE 8:31 pm: With 90% of the vote counted in the 8th CD, Patrick Murray now leads by 307 votes. He’s probably got it.

    UPDATE 8:53 pm: Turnout in the 11th CD is over Leslie Byrne’s magic number of 30,000, meaning that Keith Fimian has a shot this November. Not a good one, mind you, but a shot nonetheless!  Also, it looks like Patrick Murray will be the Republican sacrificial lamb nominee against Jim Moran.

    • I’m eager to see how Arkansas turns out.  Who would have thought a few months ago there would have been a second round, or that polls heading into it would show Halter in the lead?  I’m also kind of curious if Bill Clinton still has any real sway in a state like Arkansas, even (especially?) among Democratic primary voters.

    • The Richmonder

      How big of a crazy problem do the Republicans really have?  Crabill’s closing video revealed her to be clinically insane.  How many Republicans voted for her anyway?

    • Dan Sullivan

      Wingnut vote strong but divided.

    • Maybe it’s a Virginia thing, or maybe the “conventional wisdom” that this is a Tea Party year has been overblown?  As Democrats should remember from the 1960’s and early 1970’s, media coverage doesn’t always translate into votes.  

    • While I’m squeamish about cheering for a “Tea Party” candidate in the primary, I’m more than happy to encourage a third party challenge in a general.  In a race like the 5th District, even a percentage point or two might be enough to make sure it goes Perriello’s way.

    • Dan Sullivan

      Told the VBRP that the plurality is unassailable.

    • DCCyclone

      First, while I like Leslie’s liberal politics, I’ve never heard that she’s any kind of master number-cruncher, and you gotta be a master number-cruncher to extrapolate from a party’s primary turnout volume the chances of the party beating an incumbent of the opposite party in November.  Sounds like she did some very rough back-of-the-envelope math, except she did the math in her head instead of with a pen and envelope.  Your math, Lowell, shows her math is quite off, and also that turnout volume isn’t relevant, at least not statistically so.

      Second, it’s on a night like tonight that I am saddened Virginia doesn’t require runoffs!  Can you imagine the chaos in VA-02 and VA-05 on the Rethugs’ side if they had to go to runoffs?  It just goes to show that even within the Republican Party, these teabaggers and their ilk struggle badly in a split field.

    • Based on the big Fimian wins in Ffx City and quite a few Dem leaning precincts, I think it is safe to say that quite a few of those motivated voters were Democrats who won’t be supporting Fimian in the fall.  

    • Colston Newton

      Somebody asked what Crabill’s better showing against Pollard meant…It means Northern Neck Republicans like Rob Wittman better than they do Albert Pollard or any other Dem for that matter. (Pollard wasn’t running in the rest of the district.)It also shows what running in a strong GOP year will do for poor candidates even if they run 20% behind the top of the ticket.

      I don’t know about other areas, but here in the Northern Neck quite a few Tea party people supported Wittman. The Tea Party isn’t made up of all kooks.

      FWIW, a lot of NN Democrats voted today for Wittman.

      • libra

        but TPM is showing Lincoln with a lead. There were those “irregularities” (of 36 polling stations only 2 open in a precinct that’s pro-Halter)… If Lincoln wins, I think I’ll be licking my wounds for months to come.  

    • Whenever VA08 Republicans are posed with a choice between a candidate voters might actually like and the candidate who most rabidly espouses radical hard right ideology, they choose Teh Crazy every time.

      • The Richmonder

        That tells me that more than 10% of the RPV in the 1st CD has serious issues.  Very interesting.

      • I want Dems to win as much as anyone, but Crabill is just too much of a risk for me personally to cheer her on.  The idea that Republicans could select someone like her is genuinely disturbing.  I’m actually pretty thankful that she was stopped cold.  (What’s up with that 10%?)

        (Now, I also thought that 11th District Republicans would ultimately choose Herrity over Fimian, but maybe I’m going to be surprised….)

    • gg2landy

      The win sets up a three-way race in November among Hurt, Perriello and independent Jeffrey Clark of Danville.

      Still unanswered Tuesday night was the question of whether all the losing candidates would support Hurt. While some of them did promise to back Hurt in November, McKelvey and Mike McPadden, the third-place finisher, weren’t disclosing their intentions Tuesday night.

      Clark, a Danville businessman, filed his papers as an independent candidate with the State Board of Elections on Tuesday. Clark has said his goal is capturing votes that otherwise might go to Hurt.