Republican Poll: Rigell 45%-Nye 40%-Golden 7%

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    Just as with polls done for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, it’s hard to know what to make of polls commissioned by the National Republican Congressional Committee. With that disclaimer, here are the results from a new poll by the NRCC on Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District:

    In Virginia’s 2nd district, Rep. Glenn Nye (D) trailed car dealer Scott Rigell (R) by 5 points. The Congressman took 40 percent to Rigell’s 45 percent. Independent Kenny Golden, a former Republican, took 7 percent. The survey of 400 likely voters was conducted by the GOP firm Ayres McHenry & Associates Sept 23 to 26 and had a 4.9 point margin of error.

    That 5-point lead for the used car dealer (Rigell) is just outside the statistical margin of error, so right now it looks like the 2nd CD could go either way.  That’s assuming, of course, that the GOP polling is accurate, which we can’t really know since we aren’t privy to the “internals” of the poll. How about we just call this race a tossup and leave it at that?

    • it means that Nye and Obama need to stop alienating the party base and would be supporters.  Obama’s comments – such as in the Rolling Stone interview –  continue to insult many who merely seek to hold him accountable for his broken campaign promises. And Nye might do well to answer letters and inquiries from past supporters.

    • GregHabeeb

      A 5 point spread is well within the margin of error.  MOE does not apply to the spread but rather to each candidates vote total. In this case, it means Rigell’s total should be between 40 and 50 and Nye’s total would be between 35 and 45.  Anytime those potential totals cross (such as in this case) the race is within the MOE.

      Don’t get me wrong, I’d like to be able to say Rigell is way ahead and outside the MOE but that wouldn’t be accurate.  

    • Venu

      to hit Rigell from his weak right flank.