Another Poll Indicates Deadlocked Race in VA-05

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    Another day, another poll (other than SurveyUSA) indicates a tossup race in Virginia’s 5th Congressional district.

    A survey of likely voters in Virginia’s 5th Congressional District reveals a deadlocked race with Democrat Tom Perriello receiving 43%, Republican Robert Hurt 44% and Independent candidate Jeff Clark barely registering with 1% in the initial trial heat.

    A representative sample of 500 likely voters was interviewed live, by telephone, from September 20 – 23, 2010…

    The poll was commissioned by the League of Conservation Voters and the Service Employees International Union and conducted by Custom Strategic Research. According to the LCV:

    Congressman Perriello’s leadership in the House on clean energy issues has been unparalleled. We are encouraged by the results of this poll and will work hard to ensure that Congressman Perriello is re-elected so that he can continue working to bring clean energy jobs to Virginia and increase our national security.

    The SEIU adds:

    Tom Perriello has remained focused on three things – jobs, jobs and jobs – and his focus on the issues that matter to his district is paying off while Robert Hurt’s refusal to hold a single town hall meeting is backfiring…Across the country, candidates who’ve focused on strengthening the middle class, as Perriello has with his Economic R.E.V.I.V.A.L. plan, are surging as we enter the last month of the election.

    Good stuff, go Tom!

    • GregHabeeb

      Couple comments.  I can’t see any crosstabs other than the one page summary you linked but a few things stood out.

      1)  If I’m reading this right, their sample was 19% African-American.  While SUSA is likely undersampling A-A vote, this seems to be oversampling (by a lot).

      2)  Not even Perriello believes he’ll see a 35R-33D turnout.  A plus 5-10 R turnout is MUCH more likely which would obviously move the number.

      3)  Bizarre that they refer to the “Raleigh/Richmond” region.  I’d love to know what that means as neither Raleigh or Richmond are in the 5th and Raleigh and Richmond don’t comprise a region by anyone’s definition.

      4)  Interesting that the “unbiased third party” polling (SUSA) shows such a huge Hurt lead yet the “biased” polling (Perriello’s internals, DCCC and LCV/SEIU) shows such a tight race.  I’m not saying either group is right.  Just interesting.

      Personally, I think the race is about a 10 point race, right in between the polling we’ve seen from folks supporting Perriello and the SUSA polls.

    • GregHabeeb

      I went back and read their crosstabs.  They had 12% African American (versus 19% here) and had a +11R weighting (versus +2R here).  That certainly accounts for some of the difference but not nearly all of it.

      I’d love to see this poll’s cross tabs.  To arrive at that number based on a +2R weighting, Perriello and Hurt would almost certainly have to be splitting Independents 50-50.  That would be pretty amazing (and, to me, unbelievable).

    • VADEM

      hell yeh. Happy to see this. Hurt is blowing his campaign by not debating plus Tom has had some excellent hard hitting ads around here, while all Hurt has had is an ad with him whining about Tom’s “negative ads”.

      Like the rethugs NEVER do any negative ads.

      riiiggghhht. They are as pure as the driven snow.

    • kindler

      The voters may not be geniuses, but they can sense sincerity and commitment.  Tom’s the real deal and there’s no better resource for a campaign to have.

      I hope the DCCC is paying attention and will boost his campaign accordingly.