New PPP Poll: “Virginia’s 13 electoral votes still in Obama’s column”

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    Public Policy Polling gives us some encouraging news for a change!

    …PPP’s first look at [Virginia] almost two years from the election suggests otherwise. Just three weeks following the low point of his presidency, Obama leads all four current Republican frontrunners by healthy margins, and has a positive job approval rating in the Old Dominion.

    PPP’s final 2008 poll of the state which nailed the actual 53-46 result reflected an electorate in which Democrats outnumbered Republicans by five points. This electorate, at D +1, is more evenly split, but still gives the president a 50-45 job performance mark, better than PPP has measured him almost anywhere in 2010.

    Obama posts his strongest leads against Sarah Palin (52-41) and Newt Gingrich (51-40), with smaller advantages over Mike Huckabee (49-44) and Mitt Romney (48-43). The president has at least 91% of his party’s votes against any of the Republicans, with no more than 5% defecting…

    Hey, it’s 2 years out and only one poll (albeit by a highly accurate polling outfit), but I’ll take it! By the way, Gallup’s current Obama job approval numbers are 48%-45%. That’s slightly higher, by the way, than both Clinton’s and Reagan’s job approval numbers at the same point in their presidencies.  

    • Cool_Arrow

      This is excellent news. Despite all of the mud that has been thrown his way and the substantial losses that we have had in the last 2 years the fact that his approval is not underwater is impressive. We are still a long ways away and who knows how accurate this poll was (I can’t wait for Ras to come out with a poll saying Obama is at 30% approval in VA and loses to Palin by 20%) but PPP has been solid. Interesting numbers in the crosstabs.

      1. 78% white, 18% AA, 4% other. It is not likely that whites will be this high in 2012 and African-Americans and others will be slightly higher. Advantage team blue.

      2. 55% women and 45% men. This is too high in women. Advantage team red.

      3. +5% Obama sample and 9% “I don’t remember”. Virginia went to Obama by 7% so I doubt all of the 9% were Obama voters. No clear advantage.

      Overall this is a decent albeit very early snapshot of Virginia in 2012. If Obama wins Virginia he is very likely going to be re-elected even if he loses OH,FL, NC and IN that he carried in 2008. From the 2004 map he likely keeps all Kerry states and he adds CO, NM and NV. If you add in VA that is over 270 electoral votes.

      I’ve said elsewhere and I’ll say it again, Obama running strong would benefit Jim Webb the most out of any incumbent Democrat running for office. I hope Webb sees this and realizes that he should run for re-election.  

    • Clemgo3165

      In the Outlook section of the Post this weekend claim that he’s lost the consent of the governed based on the election results, and should declare himself out of the race for 2012.  One of the writers even worked for Clinton in ’94.

    • gene magruder

      Clemgo,

      I’m pretty sure most that answered Republicans will not be shortly and just chose to look like a winner. Wait for the first hilarious budget from these clowns out of the house.

    • Mike1987

      Much like the press in the lead up to the Iraq invasion, the press is not thinking or looking critical at facts. They are on the sidelines cheering for conflict because it sells ratings.

    • Teddy Goodson

      WHY are the Democrats caving on tax cut extension while they still control Congress? I am infuriated with these clowns on Capitol Hill AND in the White House who call themselves Democrats. The only way to negotiate with Republicans like those in Congress is to go in strong and firm, not fold before the bargaining even starts. You only look weak, and the Republicans move the goal posts. Why cannot Obama see that? Why not link extension of unemployment with extending tax cuts? Why not de-link the over-250K from the rest, and say you’ll go ahead with the tax cut extension for those if Republicans don’t want to extend unemployment, for example? Why not look like the Democrats represent the people who elected them?