By Paul Goldman
Tracking polls can change in three days, but right now, President Obama has his best numbers in the Gallup Poll in many months. Obama’s 54%-39% positive/negative rating is a +15, a number that makes him unbeatable next year it if holds.
This is also, it should go without saying, a superb number in the current toxic economic and political climate. It would equate to a sizeable win nationally in 2012, as well as a comfortable victory here in Virginia. It would also allow Tim Kaine to coast to victory simply by riding he Obama coattails.
If the President and the Republicans make a responsible debt deal – and I believe they will – then the President is a huge favorite to win, based on the 1936 example. Back then, the country still blamed the Republicans for the mess far more than they blamed the Democrats, and for good and sufficient reason. They applauded FDR’s efforts to fix the mess the Republicans had created. Sound familiar? And FDR won bigger in 1936, despite the lingering Great Depression, than he had in 1932.
Today’s situation is not an exact parallel, but still: President Bush’s policies dug us into a deep hole, and it has been hard work for the President and the Democrats to dig us out. But the public understands the history.
Remember: Even with our serious problems right now, Barack Obama has winning numbers.