Ben Tribbett on Obama’s Majority and the Senate Race


    The numbers reported for President Obama in Virginia earlier today are not a harbinger for a Kaine victory. That is obvious from the poll. Last month, Ben Tribbett examined some of the changes in the electorate and how those will affect the down ticket races in 2012.

    Earlier today, I commented that the electorate’s memory fades dramatically over the span of six months. Lowell pointed out that if the public is reminded about it constantly, with a barrage of advertising, it is like it happened yesterday. However, I recalled Ben’s comments (toward the end of this video) about bringing up the macaca incident recently at a college Democrats chapter. Over half the audience, he said, had no idea what it was.

    “People who don’t know all that information, don’t have all that history, are very vulnerable to cross-over.” – Ben Tribbett

    After looking at the numbers and considering Ben’s analysis, Lowell’s observation that the Republicans are doing Kaine a favor with their attempts to hang Obama around his neck is insightful. The President is far from an albatross.

    • NotJohnSMosby

      Macaca hit six years ago.  The college Dems were, at best, in early high school, 15-16 years old at most.  Not too many 15-16 year olds pay much attention to politics.

    • notlarrysabato

      Rewatching this video, I spoke unclearly about one thing- it was a group of college democrats, not THE college Democrats.  I don’t know if that’s an important distinction of not given who is voting this year, but rewatching the way I phrased it, wasn’t clear on that and might be seen the other way.

      And NJSM, that’s exactly right.  We have to remember that not all voters have the same perspective and memory we do.

    • Elaine in Roanoke

      The analysis of the potential electorate and the weaknesses that Kaine needs to address is excellent. I especially agree that younger voters are far more likely to split their votes and so must be reached by a message geared to them. President Obama has been doing just that by bringing the issue of student loan debt to the forefront. If the GOP continues to tie Kaine to Obama, they are doing him a great favor.