I posted a poll on this subject a few days ago, and as you can see, it got just 50 votes. Apparently, people aren’t particularly excited about who the next 8th CD candidate to drop out (after Mark Sickles) will be. 😉 Also, note that someone (who could it possibly be? LOL) had a bit of fun with the poll, encouraging 12 people to vote for Don Beyer. Now, I may not be a political genius or anything, but one thing I can absolutely guarantee is that Don Beyer will not – repeat, NOT! – be the next candidate to drop out of this race. In fact, I can’t imagine him ever dropping out of this race, given the fact that he’s the frontrunner by pretty much everyone’s estimation.
Other than the anti-Beyer poll “trolling,” people seem to feel that Derek Hyra and Bill Euille might be the next to drop out. I actually don’t think either is likely, and am increasingly inclined towards the choice of 5 voters, that nobody else will drop out. On the other hand, I got an email the other day from a smart, elected Democratic official, who predicted that “March 31-April 15 will be the Great Sorting Out,” as “that’s when financial reality will sink in.” I tend to agree that if one of the 12 candidates is going to drop out, that certainly would be a good time to do it if they’re gaining no traction on the fundraising front (and especially if their lack of fundraising is matched by lack of any other tangible signs of momentum). Stay tuned, as April 15 isn’t very far away.
By the way, if you’re keeping track of straw polls, so far the results have been:
*Mt. Vernon Democrats Mardi Gras Party (3/1): Don Beyer (105), Lavern Chatman (83), Patrick Hope (81), Mark Sickles (51), Adam Ebbin (42), Charniele Herring (15), Alfonso Lopez (11), Bill Euille (11), Mark Levine (7), Derek Hyra (7), Bruce Shuttleworth (3).
*Frank O’Leary’s St. Patrick’s Day Party (3/16): Hope (67), Beyer (37), Ebbin (31), Lopez (14), Chatman (3), Hyra (1), Levine (1), Euille (0), Shuttleworth (0), Najarian (0), Herring (0).
*Gerry Connolly’s St. Patrick’s Day Fete (3/17): Beyer 127 (34%), Herring 46 (13%), Chatman 44 (12%), Ebbin 41 (11%), Euille/Lopez/Hope 25 each (7% each), Levine 22 (6%), Shuttleworth 4 (1%) Satish Korpe 4 (1%), Najarian 1 (0%), Hyra zero (0%).
Do these straw polls mean anything? That debate could go on endlessly, but I definitely don’t see a definitive case one way or the other. What do you think?