Home 2014 Races Poll Results: Who Will Be the Next 8th CD Candidate to Drop...

Poll Results: Who Will Be the Next 8th CD Candidate to Drop Out?

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I posted a poll on this subject a few days ago, and as you can see, it got just 50 votes. Apparently, people aren’t particularly excited about who the next 8th CD candidate to drop out (after Mark Sickles) will be. 😉  Also, note that someone (who could it possibly be? LOL) had a bit of fun with the poll, encouraging 12 people to vote for Don Beyer. Now, I may not be a political genius or anything, but one thing I can absolutely guarantee is that Don Beyer will not – repeat, NOT! – be the next candidate to drop out of this race. In fact, I can’t imagine him ever dropping out of this race, given the fact that he’s the frontrunner by pretty much everyone’s estimation.

Other than the anti-Beyer poll “trolling,” people seem to feel that Derek Hyra and Bill Euille might be the next to drop out. I actually don’t think either is likely, and am increasingly inclined towards the choice of 5 voters, that nobody else will drop out. On the other hand, I got an email the other day from a smart, elected Democratic official, who predicted that “March 31-April 15 will be the Great Sorting Out,” as “that’s when financial reality will sink in.” I tend to agree that if one of the 12 candidates is going to drop out, that certainly would be a good time to do it if they’re gaining no traction on the fundraising front (and especially if their lack of fundraising is matched by lack of any other tangible signs of momentum). Stay tuned, as April 15 isn’t very far away.

By the way, if you’re keeping track of straw polls, so far the results have been:

*Mt. Vernon Democrats Mardi Gras Party (3/1): Don Beyer (105), Lavern Chatman (83), Patrick Hope (81), Mark Sickles (51), Adam Ebbin (42), Charniele Herring (15), Alfonso Lopez (11), Bill Euille (11), Mark Levine (7), Derek Hyra (7), Bruce Shuttleworth (3).

*Frank O’Leary’s St. Patrick’s Day Party (3/16): Hope (67), Beyer (37), Ebbin (31), Lopez (14), Chatman (3), Hyra (1), Levine (1), Euille (0), Shuttleworth (0), Najarian (0), Herring (0).

*Gerry Connolly’s St. Patrick’s Day Fete (3/17): Beyer 127 (34%), Herring 46 (13%), Chatman 44 (12%), Ebbin 41 (11%), Euille/Lopez/Hope 25 each (7% each), Levine 22 (6%), Shuttleworth 4 (1%) Satish Korpe 4 (1%), Najarian 1 (0%), Hyra zero (0%).

Do these straw polls mean anything? That debate could go on endlessly, but I definitely don’t see a definitive case one way or the other. What do you think?

  • hitmanwhit

    Seems like the candidates can be broken up into three categories.

    1 – those with money who don’t have current office (Beyer, Chatman)

    2 – current elected officials (Hope, Ebbin, Lopez, Herring, Euille)

    3 – fringe unknowns (Shuttlesworth, Hyra, Najarian, Levine)

    I don’t see why anyone in group 1 or group 3 would step out.  People in group 3 have to know they are unlikely to win but are building their brand for the future whatever.  The two in group 1 are well funded and seem to be getting decent support.

    I think there would be likely to be at least 2 if not 3 people leaving from group 2.  They all have groups that have voted for them in the past, have tapped into them, and can likely count on their votes.  But they are now competing for money etc and seeing if their brand can be extended.  I think the 2 that are lowest in fundraising in group 2 will drop out.  

  • brown before green

    Straw polls are a GOTV effort, especially since you have to pay to play.

    The Mt. Vernon Mardi Gras event was at a Don Beyer Volvo dealership (where it has been for many years). His win there was expected. Chatman and Hope ran a tight 2nd and 3rd, with Hope the surprise because Chatman is an Alexandrian.

    The O’Leary poll was in Arlington, Hope’s site, so not unexpected that he won.

    The Connolly poll could be argued a name recognition event, considering Connolly and his district have little to do with the 8th District.

    Yes, Beyer appears to be the favorite, but there are several more Alexandrians running than Arlingtonians (or Fairfaxians or whatever they call themselves).  From the 3 straw polls thus far, the clear leaders are Beyer, Hope, Chatman, and Ebbin in that order.

    To me, a key question is whether the others who drop out turn around to back a younger candidate still in the race, the front runner Beyer, or sit quietly on the sidelines to avoid ticking anyone else off (and possibly being a loser twice over).