In a field that includes four potential primary opponents, Allen trounces. A full twothirds want him to be their nominee to replace Jim Webb next year. 7% favor Del. Bob Marshall, 4% Tea Party leader Jamie Radtke, and 3% each county executive Corey Stewart and attorney David McCormick. Radtke and McCormick are the only announced candidates so far. McCormick’s favorability was not tested, but more than three quarters of even these hardcore voters are not familiar with Radkte or Marshall, and both are seen slightly negatively. They have room to grow, but Allen starts out in formidable shape.
“The threat of a Tea Party challenge to George Allen has been pretty overblown,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “He’s a lot more immune to that than most establishment Republican politicians are.”
Obviously, a lot could happen between now and the nomination, but you don’t have to be a political genius to realize that a 67%-4% (63 points, Allen over Radtke) lead is going to be a bit much to overcome. I mean, that would take a lot of “macaca moments” by Allen, probably many more than even he has in him. The only question is, which Democrat will be the one to beat “Felix” and keep the Senate seat in Democratic hands? From what I’m hearing, Tim Kaine will let us all know his decision early next week. After that, I presume this race will start to pick up, with the DPVA laying down a powerful narrative against Allen and…oh yeah, right! 😉
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