NBC/Marist Poll of Virginia: Obama 52%-Romney 35%; Kaine 48%-Allen 39%


    According to the brand new NBC/Marist poll of Virginia, it looks like the Republicans’ war on women isn’t playing too well with Virginia registered voters. Nor is the extended Republican presidential nominating contest, in which utterly-out-of-touch-with-normal-humans Willard “Mitt” Romney, Ayatollah Rick Santorum, and Egomaniac Newton Leroy “Newt” Gingrich spend 24/7 (and tens of millions of dollars) trying desperately to out-crazy and out-extreme each other. Meanwhile, President Obama continues on his steady, sane, moderate way, as the economy recovers and Americans feel increasingly optimistic about where we’re heading. The results?

    *51% of Virginian registered voters (RVs) approve of the job President Obama is doing, while just 39% disapprove.

    *If the election were held today, Obama would crush Romney by 17 points (52%-35%), Ron Paul by 21 points (53%-32%), and Rick Santorum by 22 points (54%-32%).

    *By a 14-point majority (53%-39%), Virginia RVs believe the “worst is behind us” when it comes to the economy, with a 2:1 margin of Virginia RVs saying the economy will get better in the next 12 months (40% say it will stay the same).

    *For some bizarre reason, Virginians continue to approve of Bob McDonnell’s job performance, by a 51%-30% margin, even though he’s shown absolutely no leadership on transportation, has actually HURT the economic recovery, and his reverted to his “Taliban Bob” ways of late. I don’t get this one at all, except that Virginians always seem to approve of their governors, no matter what they do (possible exception: Jim Gilmore?).  

    *Tim Kaine leads George Allen by 9 points, 48%-39%. As numerous polls have now shown, Barack Obama is consistently out-polling Tim Kaine in Virginia. My guess is that this has to do with the abysmal Republican presidential nominating contest, while Allen mostly skates along unscathed by his Republican “rivals” (in quotes, because so far none of them have shown that they pose even a remote threat to Allen’s nomination). Anyway, these numbers call into serious question whether Allen’s strategy of tying Kaine to Obama might not actually HELP Kaine rather than hurt him, given Obama’s wide margin over Romney or Santorum.

    *In terms of party ID, 50% of Virginia RVs call themselves Democrats or Independents who lean Democratic. That compares to just 35% of Virginia RVs calling themselves Republicans or Republican-leaning Independents.

    *71% of Virginia RVs say they are NOT Tea Party supporters, versus just 21% who say they are (only 6% of Virginia RVs say they “strongly support” the Tea Party).

    *Willard “Mitt” Romney is headed for a crushing win over Ron Paul (his only opponent on the ballot) this Tuesday, probably by 40-50 points.

    How accurate is this poll compared to other polls? For starters, it’s wildly different than the recent, Roanoke College poll, which showed George Allen leading Tim Kaine by 8 points (Kaine called that poll an “outlier;” it will be interesting to hear what he thinks about the NBC/Marist poll). It’s more in sync with Public Policy Polling, which had Obama and Kaine both looking good in Virginia. There also was a Q-Poll, which had Obama leading Romney by 4 points (47%-43%), and Kaine leading Allen by 1 point (45%-44%). Personally, I’d rather be cautious, so I’ll conclude that both Obama and Kaine are slightly ahead in Virginia (although I’d love to believe the NBC/Marist poll is correct, of course, and it certainly might be). What do you think?

    P.S. Photo by John Rohrbach.


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