PPP Poll: Kaine 46%-Allen 44%; McAuliffe 41%-Cuccinelli 37%

The latest PPP polling numbers for the U.S. Senate race this year, and the governor's race next year, are now available. The results are not particularly surprising. *Tim Kaine leads George Allen by a statistically insignificant 2 points (46%-44%), compared to Barack Obama's 8-point lead over Mitt Romney in the same PPP poll. This has been a consistent pattern in poll after poll; can anyone explain it? I can't. *For 2013, assuming the Republican nominee for governor is Ken Cuccinelli (which I'd put at a 95% likelihood right now), Terry McAuliffe leads by 4 points (41%-37%). On one level, I find that comforting, but on another...how on earth can this extremist, science-denying wackjob be seriously considered by that many Virginians for our next governor?!? *If by some miracle Bill Bolling figures out a way to snatch the Republican nomination from Cuccinelli, he actually leads McAuliffe by 3 points (36%-33%). Unfortunately for Bolling, there's almost no way for him to do that, given Cuccinelli's wild popularity within the Virginia Republican Party, if not among the the general electorate. *Mark Warner remains highly popular, and would easily defeat Cuccinelli (51%-37%) or Bolling (49%-35%) if he decided to leave the Senate and go back to being "his Excellency." Would Warner leave the Senate, though? I doubt it, but it's really his call as to what job he wants, and I see no reason why he can't wait a while to make up his mind.

The latest PPP polling numbers for the U.S. Senate race this year, and the governor’s race next year, are now available. The results are not particularly surprising.

*Tim Kaine leads George Allen by a statistically insignificant 2 points (46%-44%), compared to Barack Obama’s 8-point lead over Mitt Romney in the same PPP poll. This has been a consistent pattern in poll after poll; can anyone explain it? I can’t.

*For 2013, assuming the Republican nominee for governor is Ken Cuccinelli (which I’d put at a 95% likelihood right now), Terry McAuliffe leads by 4 points (41%-37%). On one level, I find that comforting, but on another…how on earth can this extremist, science-denying wackjob be seriously considered by that many Virginians for our next governor?!?

*If by some miracle Bill Bolling figures out a way to snatch the Republican nomination from Cuccinelli, he actually leads McAuliffe by 3 points (36%-33%). Unfortunately for Bolling, there’s almost no way for him to do that, given Cuccinelli’s wild popularity within the Virginia Republican Party, if not among the the general electorate.

*Mark Warner remains highly popular, and would easily defeat Cuccinelli (51%-37%) or Bolling (49%-35%) if he decided to leave the Senate and go back to being “his Excellency.” Would Warner leave the Senate, though? I doubt it, but it’s really his call as to what job he wants, and I see no reason why he can’t wait a while to make up his mind.

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