Home 2012 races Some Good News for Your Saturday AM: You Gotta Have Hope

Some Good News for Your Saturday AM: You Gotta Have Hope


Good morning.  Yeh, it’s been a tough week, hearing lie upon lie from the GOP microphones, particularly the top of the ticket. And you have watched as a couple polls show Mittens and Freddie Munster with a slight bump.

Fear not.   FiveThirtyEight  has some information to cheer your Saturday AM coffee session. Barack Obama has a 72% chance of winning reelection. He is on track to win 303.8 electoral college votes. Mittens has 234.2 electoral votes at this count.

Let’s take a look at Intrade. At the time I write this (things can change between when I post and when you read this) here are the results:

Barack Obama: 57.7% chance of winning

Mittens: 42.3%

Tim Kaine: 55%

One word of caution: Of course, we can cannot assume anything. Without GOTV, refuting GOP lies (as much as you have to between now and Nov 6), and funding our candidate, these predictions may not hold. But I hope this information gives you the hope you need to get through the next two months of work toward ensuring our future. You gotta have hope! Onward…  

Please join us visibly and audibly refuting GOP lies. They told a record number of them at this past week’s convention. Make sure you engage your friends (and, yes, family), rebutting the erroneous and fictitious claims.

Last night, I sent off another donation to barackobama.com. If you can afford to do so, did you dig deeper before the Aug 31 fundraising “deadline” last night? The fact is that though the midnight hour passed, it’s not too late.) It was, however,a measurement of where the campaigns stood and what kind of ad buys they can make. But they will still be able to use whatever we all can afford to send.  

  • Elaine in Roanoke

    Actually, Paul Ryan reminds me of little Eddie Munster…part werewolf with a hint of vampire.

  • KathyinBlacksburg


    Could also say he is a Factless Republican, Fraudulent Republican, Freakin Rotten, and a number of other combos.

    Maybe we should have a Paul Ryan re-name contest.  

  • kindler

    But I worry that his overall estimates of Obama’s chances may be misleading in the direction of making Dems overconfident.  Nate Silver’s estimates are, quite rightly, based primarily on odds of winning the Electoral College, and so he focuses on state polls, esp of the swing states.

    Right now, those state standings look pretty good — particularly in swing states like OH, NH, NM and NV.  But he admits that shifts in the nationwide polls could shift a bunch of state polls at once, making the big number representing Obama’s chance of winning subject to more fluctuation than the size of that gap suggests.

    And of course, you are absolutely right about GOTV, especially in a close election like this — and especially in VA, which remains a hugely important swing state that’s too close to call.

  • KathyinBlacksburg

    Overconfidence is the last thing we should feel.  The way I look at it, though, is that with all the bad news re the seemingly infinite stream of corporate money flowing, most of which is being used against us; the racism which has reared its ugly head and news of efforts to subvert the democratic process, it helps to know that if we do what we must, we have a good chance on Nov 6th.  As I said, you gotta have hope.

    The other side is all about quashing it.  Our side needs to keep it alive AND rewarded with a government which stewards its citizens and resources.  We need to make it happen, each in our own way.