Home National Politics As Trump Comes Closer to GOP Nomination, Prediction Markets Show Clinton Surging

As Trump Comes Closer to GOP Nomination, Prediction Markets Show Clinton Surging


I like these trends, courtesy of PredictWise prediction market…Hillary Clinton with a 70% chance (and rising) of becoming president, while Donald Trump has only a 20% chance (and dropping), according to people putting their money where their mouths are. Also note that nobody else – Ted Cruz, John Kasich, Marco Rubio or Bernie Sanders – has more than a 3% chance of becoming president in 2016. Of course, prediction markets aren’t necessarily correct, but in this case I think it’s hard to argue with what they’re saying about the general election, particularly with Michael Bloomberg announcing he isn’t running. (Note: the Iowa Electronic Markets currently have it as Dems with a 68.5% chance of winning in November)

Also note that PredictWise currently has the likely GOP nominee as Donald Trump (66% chance), followed by Ted Cruz (17% chance), John Kasich (9%) and Marco Rubio (7%). On the Democratic side, it’s Hillary Clinton with a 96% chance of becoming the Democratic nominee, with Bernie Sanders at 4%. Those also seems about right to me. What do you think? By the way, there are WILDLY differering national polls out this morning: either Hillary Clinton is pulling away big time (NBC/Survey Monkey poll) or the race is tightening sharply (Washington Post/ABC News poll). Take your pick! LOL


Sign up for the Blue Virginia weekly newsletter

Previous articleLessons from the DC Streetcar Experience for Arlington County?
Next articleVirginia Del. Lionell Spruill Accuses Republicans of Playing Racial Games; Speaker Howell Warns Him to Watch His Language