UPDATE 9:27 pm: With 92.3% of Virginia precincts reporting, it’s Trump 34.9%-Rubio 31.9%. On the Dem side, it’s 64%-35% Clinton over Sanders.
UPDATE 9:15 pm: So, at this point, Clinton has won Alabama, American Samoa, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia; while Sanders has won his home state of Vermont as well as Oklahoma. On the Republican side, neo-fascist Trump has won Alabama, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee and Virginia, while extreme theocratic a**hole Cruz has won Texas and Oklahoma. So…the media narrative will undoubtedly be about Marco-mentum, right? LOL
UPDATE 9:01 pm: AP calls Texas for Ted Cruz and Hillary Clinton. House Majority PAC Executive Director @AliLapp tweets: “So far for Rubio: VA-2nd, AL-2nd, GA-3rd, MA-3rd, OK-3rd, TN-3rd, TX-3rd, VT-3rd. Not a good night if this holds.”
UPDATE 8:48 pm: CBS and NBC also projecting Trump the winner in Virginia. With 82% of the votes counted, it’s Trump 35.3%-Rubio 31.4%. Just a slight shift in Rubio’s direction since we were at 70% of precincts counted.
UPDATE 8:40 pm: According to SBE, with 76.8% of Virginia precincts reporting, it’s Trump 35.4%-Rubio 31.4%-Cruz 16.9%. Close…but not cigar (Cuban or otherwise) for Rubio! LOL Also note that Kasich’s 8.8% of the vote, IF you assume a lot of that would have gone to Rubio not Trump, could have easily pushed Rubio to the win in Virginia. But nooooooo. Rubio – along with the “Republican establishment – must be really cursing Kasich right about now.
UPDATE 8:31 pm: Not that I trust Fox as far as I can throw them, but they’ve now called Virginia for Trump. So what does Rubio do now? So what does Rubio do now? So what does Rubio do now? LOL
UPDATE 8:31 pm: According to SBE, with 70.0% of Virginia precincts reporting, it’s Trump 35.7%-Rubio 31.3%-Cruz 16.7%. Rubio will have to rack it up in the 10th, 11th and 8th to eke this out, but it will be tough. Very funny: according to Dave Wasserman, “In a shocking rejection of President Jerry Falwell, Jr.’s endorsement, Trump takes FOURTH PLACE (7%) at Liberty U.” Hahahahaha. Oh, and Clinton is projected by the networks to win Arkansas.
UPDATE 8:25 pm: According to SBE, with 67.1% of Virginia precincts reporting, it’s Trump 35.8%-Rubio 31.3%-Cruz 16.7%.
UPDATE 8:16 pm: According to SBE, with 57.4% of Virginia precincts reporting, it’s Trump 36.7%-Rubio 30.2%-Cruz 17.0%. As for the 8th and 11th CDs, the problem for Rubio is that there not nearly enough Republican voters in those deep-blue districts. So…most likely Trump will take Virginia. By the way, I agree with @chrislhayes that “If Trump were anyone other than Trump it would be over” for the 2016 GOP presidential nomination at this point.
UPDATE 8:10 pm: According to Dave Wasserman, “It looks like Virginia Beach might save Donald Trump from a loss to Rubio in VA. He’s up 38%-30% there, an important battleground.”
UPDATE 8:03 pm: According to SBE, with 46.0% of Virginia precincts reporting, it’s Trump 36.9%-Rubio 30.2%. Still very little of the 11th CD reporting and plenty more of the 8th CD left to report, so if Rubio can run it up there, he could squeak this one out. Oh, it also looks like Clinton has won Alabama and Tennessee (in addition to Virginia and Georgia), while Trump has won Alabama, Georgia, Massachusetts and Tennessee, probably Vermont as well.
UPDATE 7:57 pm: According to SBE, with 39.3% of Virginia precincts reporting, it’s Trump 37.1%-Rubio 30.6%-Cruz 16.8%. As for the Dems, with 49% of Virginia precincts in, it’s holding steady with Clinton at a 30-or-so-point lead — a massive victory in a state that very much mirrors the rest of the U.S. in terms of…well, everything basically.
UPDATE 7:54 pm: According to Dave Wasserman @Redistrict, “Rubio’s 46%-19% lead over Trump in Inside-the-Beltway VA precincts is by far his best showing *anywhere* to date.” Wasserman adds, “At this rate, there is a small chance Rubio could pull off a huge Virginia upset, *IF* Fairfax County comes through for him.” I agree, given that hardly any of the 11th CD is in yet and not much of the 8th CD, and that Rubio’s doing very well in both of those NOVA districts.
UPDATE 7:46 pm: Per SBE, with 30.0% of Virginia precincts reporting, it’s Trump 36.5%-Rubio 31.5%. Rubio is demolishing Trump in inner Northern Virginia’s 8th CD (46.1%-19.5%). Rubio’s also doing very well in the 11th CD (parts of Fairfax and Prince William Counties) and edging out Trump in the 2nd CD (Hampton Roads), 3rd CD (Rep. Bobby Scott’s district) and 7th CD (misrepresented by crazy Dave Brat, formerly Eric Can’tor). Trump is wiping out Rubio in the 9th CD (far SW Virginia) and beating him badly in the 5th CD (Southside Virginia).
UPDATE 7:42 pm: Per SBE, with 23.0% of Virginia precincts reporting, it’s Trump 37.0%-Rubio 30.2%-Cruz 17.6%-Kasich 8.0%-Carson 6.1%. On the Dem side, with 24% of Virginia precincts reporting, it’s Clinton 64.9%-Sanders 34.6%.
UPDATE 7:38 pm: Per SBE, with 18.4% of Virginia precincts reporting, it’s Trump 37.6%-Rubio 29.7%-Cruz 17.6%-Kasich 7.9%-Carson 6.1%. On the Dem side, with 20.1% of Virginia precincts reporting, it’s Clinton 65.1%-Sanders 34.3%.
UPDATE 7:32 pm: According to SBE, with 13.6% of Virginia’s precincts reporting, it’s now Trump 38.7%-Rubio 29.0%-Cruz 17.7%-Kasich 7.5%-Carson 6.0%.
UPDATE 7:28 pm: According to SBE, with 9.4% of Virginia’s precincts reporting, it’s now Trump 38.3%-Rubio 29.6%-Cruz 17.9%. And with 11.2% of precincts reporting, it’s Clinton 65.3%-Sanders 34.1%. Looking like a huge (~30 points) Clinton victory in Virginia.
UPDATE 7:23 pm: According to VPAP, with 1% of precincts reporting in Virginia, it’s Trump 40%-Rubio 27%-Cruz 19%-Kasich 7%-Carson 6%. Per SBE, with 2% of Virginia precincts reporting, it’s Clinton 61%-Sanders 38%.
UPDATE 7:16 pm: The Washington Post has detailed exit poll results for Virginia here. Among other findings, Clinton is leading by huge margins among Dems who want to continue President Obama’s policies, who want a candidate who can win in November and who has the “right experience.” Sanders is winning Dems who want a change in a more liberal direction, younger (17-29) voters, and voters who want a nominee who’s “honest and trustworthy.” Also, according to Andrea Mitchell: “Clinton won African Americans in VA by 82% say exits plus 83% of voters 65+; She won white vote but narrowly lost white men.”
UPDATE 7:10 pm: According to CBS radio reporter Steven Portnoy, exit polls show that “Rubio appears to have TWICE Trump’s support close in to DC.” Also, according to @rachelweinerwp, “Virginia exit polling: Rubio wins college grads, moderates, women, under 45s, non-evangelicals Trump wins most else.” Virginia apparently “too close to call” on the GOP side.
UPDATE 7:03 pm: NBC project Donald Trump as winning Georgia. Also, according to this tweet, exit polls on the GOP side show it as Trump 34%-Rubio 31% in Virginia. In Vermont, exit polls have Trump and Kasich neck and neck at around 31%-32% each.
UPDATE 7 pm: Well that didn’t take long, as CNN and NBC have both projected Hillary Clinton winning Georgia and Virginia, Bernie Sanders winning Vermont (of course).
It’s 7 pm, and polls in Virginia are now closed. As usual, result will be available at VPAP and the State Board of Elections website (which will, most likely, crash as it almost always does – lol). Having said that, my guess is that on the Democratic side, at least, the race will be called quickly for Hillary Clinton, who was wayyyy ahead in every poll leading up to today. On the Republican side, we’ll see if anyone comes close to Donald Trump, and whether Marco Rubio’s attacks on Trump the past few days paid any dividends for him.
In addition to Virginia, click here for 538’s “Super Guide To Super Tuesday — Republican Edition,” and click here for 538’s Super Guide To Super Tuesday — Democratic Edition. Obviously, if Ted Cruz doesn’t win his home state of Texas, he’s toast, so keep a close eye on that one. Also, if Bernie Sanders doesn’t win Massachusetts, that’s really bad news for him. I’m also really curious what the margins of victory will be for Clinton and Trump, and whether they can effectively wrap it up tonight (or not). Anyway, should be interesting…
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