UPDATE 10:07 pm: Looks like the networks are finally calling Virginia, which those of us who follow Virginia politics closely, like Ben Tribbett and myself, have known for a long time now. But whatever, I’ll take it. Now…how about the rest of the “blue wall” states?
UPDATE 9:55 pm: Clinton now leads in Virginia (by 0.5 percentage points with 90% of precincts reporting), but honestly at this point that’s the least of my worries. Stock markets are tanking, by the way, on the increasing possibility of President Trump.
UPDATE 9:47 pm: And more bad news. @amaxsmith — “ALERT: AP Calls #VA10 for Barbara Comstock. That is a GOP hold in DC suburbs”
UPDATE 9:29 pm: With 84.45% reporting in Virginia, it’s now Trump 47.39%-Clinton 46.89%. Still lots of blue left to report, so not particularly concerned about Virginia. The rest of the country and the planet, on the other hand…gack. Congratulations to Donald McEachin, by the way, on winning his race for the House of Representatives!
UPDATE 9:07 pm: Not that any of this will matter if Trump wins the White House, because we’ll all be totally screwed, but right now in the Richmond Mayoral race it’s Jack Berry 36.8%-Levar Stoney 33.2%-Joe Morrissey 21.6%.
UPDATE 8:56 pm: With 69.3% of precincts reporting, it’s now Trump 49.15%-Clinton 45.32%. Still tons of blue precincts to report. Also, Donald McEachin now leading in VA-04, 51.48%-48.37%, with 209/260 precincts reporting.
UPDATE 8:40 pm: @notlarrysabato — “Projection: Barbara Comstock re-elected in VA-10.” That sucks. On the other hand, @geoffreyvs – “AP has Clinton up 16 in Loudoun. No one loses VA while winning Loudoun by 16.”
UPDATE 8:36 pm: With 58% of Virginia precincts reporting, it’s now Trump 50.2%-Clinton 44.4%. Still TONS of blue areas to report…
UPDATE 8:34 pm: Looks like a runoff could be coming in Richmond for mayor. Need to win 5 wards to be elected. Per @StyleWeekly — “Richmond registrar in #rvamayor: Berry wins districts 1, 2, 5. Stoney wins 3. Morrissey wins 6, 7, 8. No results posted in other districts.”
UPDATE 8:27 pm: This is not surprising but a missed opportunity nonetheless. @AlanSuderman — “RICHMOND, Va. (AP) — Republican Scott Taylor has won election in Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District, defeating Democrat Shaun Brown.”
UPDATE 8:24 pm: Per @GarrettHaake – “Clinton up 16% in Loudoun County, VA with about 60% of the vote in. Obama won LouCo by 4.” Per @notlarrysabato — “Barbara Comstock has the upper hand right now based on early precincts, but not ready to call it yet.” Also from NLS – “Projection: Meals Tax has failed in Fairfax County” and “not to restate the obvious but Clinton-Kaine has won Virginia and it won’t be very close.”
UPDATE 8:20 pm: With 70/76 precincts reporting in Chesterfield County, it’s now Trump 49.5%-Clinton 45.1%. In 2012, Romney won Chesterfield County 53.2%-45.4%. Also, this is unfortunate. @HotlineJosh –“Comstock up 53-45% in a few Fairfax County precincts, where Trump is getting crushed. Good sign for House Rs in this bellwether.” @amaxsmith – “Comstock leads 10,283-8,416 over Bennett (65 write in) with 7.7% precincts reporting.”
UPDATE 6:42 pm: From @ryanstruyk – “Good news for HRC in VA: Obama has 56% approval rating. And only 19% of voters said they’re angry about how federal government is working.”
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Our seemingly endless national nightmare – the 2016 presidential election – is almost over. That is, assuming Hillary Clinton wins big tonight. If not, then we are all completely screwed, because Donald Trump truly is a sociopath, corrupt scumbag, fascistic thug, bigot, etc, etc. But again, hopefully we won’t have to hear much more from his foul mouth – other than a concession speech, hopefully – after tonight.
Anyway, I’ll be focused on following the election here in Virginia, where polls close at 7 pm. My main source for Virginia election data will be the State Board of Elections website. I’ll also keep an eye on the Fairfax County Board of Elections numbers, as they are sometimes faster than the SBE. I may also peek in now and again at VPAP, depending on how the State Board of Elections website is holding up (note: it usually crashes on election night; we’ll see if this year’s any exception). Oh, and click here for the races I’ll be watching tonight here in Virginia, and how I recommended voting. With that, it’s showtime!
P.S. Other than Clinton/Kaine winning Virginia (I had predicted 7 points, and I’m sticking to that; don’t worry if early returns from rural/red areas indicate a Trump lead — this happens every election cycle here in Virginia, with deep-“blue” areas like Fairfax County and Richmond City coming in late…remember Jim Webb’s midnight victory over George Allen in 2006?), I’m expecting a tight race in VA-10, an easy win for Donald McEachin in VA-04, and hopefully a surprise win for Jane Dittmar in VA-05! We also need to defeat Amendment 1, and I’m hopeful it will be defeated. Let’s hope the inaptly named – but important to fund the schools – “meals tax” passes in Fairfax County and that Joe Morrissey loses in Richmond’s mayoral race.
P.P.S. @geoffreyvs of Larry Sabato’s “Crystal Ball” tweeted some good background info on Virginia earlier today. “The main reason VA has gone from consistently R in pres years to battleground/maybe even Leans D is fairly simple: Northern Virginia. 1968-2012: Share of statewide pres vote fairly constant in Hampton Roads (19.8%-20.6%) & Greater RVA (16.3-17.4%); NoVA 20.9% to 34.0%! And NoVA went from being competitive — GOP won it by 1-2 pts from 1992 to 2000 — to uncompetitive. Obama won by 20 & 16 pts in 2008-12. Fairfax Co., by far the biggest VA locality, is pivotal. In 2012, it provided 13.7% of the state’s total vote & Obama won it by 20.5 pts. FWIW greater NoVA responsible for 86.5% of overall uptick in early absentee voting…One county to watch is Loudoun. It’s big & swingier than Fairfax/PWC. If Clinton is winning Lou by at least 4-5, VA is over. Concern for Ds has to be black turnout, of course. Early absentee numbers are down in many localities with larger black populations. At the same time, absentees are up massively in Prince William Co., which has the third-largest Latino pop of any VA locality (22%). From a broader view, key to winning Virginia is the 3 major metro areas — Northern VA, Greater Richmond, Hampton Roads aka ‘Urban Crescent'”
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