Home 2016 elections Can Dems Win Back the Virginia House of Delegates? Let’s Start By...

Can Dems Win Back the Virginia House of Delegates? Let’s Start By Winning a Bunch of These 17 “Clinton Districts!”

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This took a while, but courtesy of VPAP, we finally have full, official (as opposed to the early, unofficial numbers I procured a couple weeks ago) 2016 Presidential election results by Virginia House of Delegates (HoD) district. That’s very helpful, given that 2017 will see every single one of these HoD seats up for grabs (at least in theory; in practice, most HoD districts are not seriously contested, but that needs to change!).

See below for a graph of all 51 Virginia HoD districts won by Hillary Clinton. That’s right, I said 51 districts — out of 100, some advanced math tells us that would constitute a Democratic majority, again if we just won the districts Hillary Clinton (and in most if not all cases Barack Obama and/or Tim Kaine) won. So…next time you hear someone complaining about how Democrats just can’t possibly take back the Virginia House of Delegates due to horrible Republicans and their terriblenogoodevil gerrymandering, tell them they are simply wrong — in fact, there are 51 districts Democrats which absolutely could, maybe even should, win, if we could only figure out how to get our voters out in non-presidential years.

Note in the graphic below that there are 17 “Clinton districts” currently held by Republicans. Add those 17 to the 34 Democrats we currently have in the HoD, and you get…yep, 51 out of 100, a majority. Sensing a pattern here? 🙂 Now, of course I’m not thinking we can win back all these seats in one year, but there’s certainly no reason why we shouldn’t be able to win back a whole bunch of these – again, if we could only motivate Obama, Kaine and Clinton voters in those districts to get out and VOTE in 2017, not just in a presidential election year like 2016.

For the record, the “Clinton districts” currently held by a Republican delegate are (from lowest to highest Clinton percentage):

District 12 (Montgomery County, Giles County, Radford City, Pulaski County): Currently held by Del. Joseph Yost (R). Clinton won this district with 47% Trump got 45%). Tough one, but a possible pickup with a strong Democratic candidate/campaign.
District 21 (Virginia Beach, Cheseapeake): Currently held by Del. Ron Villanueva (R). Clinton won this district with 49% (Trump got 45%). A possible pickup with a strong Democratic candidate/campaign.
District 100 (Accomack County, Norfolk, Northampton County): Currently held by Del. Rob Bloxom (R). Clinton won this district with 49% (Trump got 47%). A possible pickup with a strong Democratic candidate/campaign.
District 72 (Henrico County): Currently held by Del. Jimmie Massey (R). Clinton won this district with 49% (Trump got 45%). A possible pickup with a strong Democratic candidate/campaign.
District 10 (Loudoun, Frederick and Clarke Counties): Currently held by Del. Randy Minchew (R). Clinton won this district with 49% (Trump got 45%). A possible pickup with a strong Democratic candidate/campaign.
District 94 (Newport News): Currently held by Del. David Yancey (R). Clinton won this district with 49% (Trump got 44%). Tough but potentially winnable; gotta tie all these Republicans to Trump, by the way.
District 73 (Henrico County): Currently held by Del. John O’Bannon (R). Clinton won this district with 50% (Trump got 43%). Tough but winnable if our presidential voters turn out.
District 51 (Prince William County): Currently held by Del. Rich Anderson (R). Clinton won this district with 50% (Trump got 44%). Again, tough but winnable if our presidential voters turn out.
District 31 (Prince William and Fauquier Counties): Currently held by Del. Scott Lingamfelter (R). Clinton won this district with 51% of the vote (Trump got 44%). No reason Dems can’t win this one.
District 68 (Chesterfield and Henrico Counties; Richmond City): Currently held by Del. Manoli Loupassi (R). Clinton won this district with 51% of the vote (Trump got 41%). Definitely winnable.
District 40 (Fairfax and Prince William Counties): Currently held by Del. Tim Hugo (R). Clinton won this district with 51% of the vote (Trump got 43%). Hugo gotta go.
District 50 (Prince William County, Manassas City): Currently held by Del. Jackson Miller (R). A 53% Clinton district, no reason why Dems can’t knock one of the worst Republicans out of the House of Delegates.
District 13 (Prince William County, Manassas Park City): Currently held by Del. “Sideshow Bob” Marshall (R). A 54% Clinton district; long past time for “Sideshow Bob” to get the hook.
District 2 (Prince William and Stafford Counties): Currently held by Del. Mark Dudenhefer (R). Hillary Clinton won this district with 56% of the vote. Gotta win this one.
District 32 (Loudoun County): Currently held by Del. Tag Greason (R). Hillary Clinton won this district with 57% of the vote. Definitely winnable. Do it!
District 42 (Fairfax County): Currently held by Del. Dave Albo (R). Hillary Clinton won this district with 57% of the vote! C’mon Dems, “Albo Must Go!”
District 67 (Fairfax and Loudoun Counties): Currently held by Del. Jim LeMunyon (R). Hillary Clinton won this district with 58% of the vote! C’mon Dems, get LeMunyon the heck outta there!

Finally, check out the VPAP map of presidential election results by House of Delegates district. Clearly, Dems are concentrated in the “urban/suburban crescent” – Hampton Roads to Richmond to Northern Virginia, plus places like Charlottesville and Roanoke City.