Home 2017 Races Final Q-Poll Pulls Back From Wild Outlier Status to Northam With a...

Final Q-Poll Pulls Back From Wild Outlier Status to Northam With a Still Excellent 9-Pt. Lead

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Yeah, the last poll by Quinnipiac – Ralph Northam up 17 points would be amazing, but seriously? –  was a wild outlier, and its final poll is still the highest lead for Virginia Democrats among any poll I’ve seen. Still, Quinnipiac is rated very highly by 538, so…who knows, they could be right. Regardless, just make sure you vote Democratic tomorrow and tell everyone you know to vote Democratic tomorrow!

With yawning gender and racial gaps, Democratic Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam holds a 51 – 42 percent likely voter lead over Republican Ed Gillespie in the Virginia governor’s race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Libertarian Cliff Hyra has 3 percent.

Today’s result compares to a 53 – 36 percent likely voter lead for Northam in an October 30 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

Non-white likely voters back the Democrat 71 – 20 percent, with 4 percent for Hyra. White voters back the Republican 50 – 44 percent, with 3 percent for Hyra. Women back Northam 61- 33 percent, with 1 percent for Hyra. Men back Gillespie 52 – 40 percent, with 5 percent for Hyra. Independent voters are divided with 46 percent for Northam, 42 percent for Gillespie and 6 percent for Hyra. Democrats back Northam 96 – 3 percent, with less than 1 percent for Hyra. Republicans back Gillespie 92 – 5 percent, with less than 2 percent for Hyra.

“Republican Ed Gillespie is closing Democratic Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam’s lead, but Gillespie still has a ways to go and only 24 hours to get there,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. “A good sign for Gillespie is that in the last two weeks he has cut Lt Gov. Northam’s 14-point lead among independents, the key bloc of voters, to a statistical tie. But any hopes that the Republicans have for victory will require their candidate to accomplish the Herculean task of making up a deep, 28-point deficit among women.

From October 30 – November 5, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,056 Virginia likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points, including the design effect. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys nationwide, and statewide polls in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa and Colorado as a public service and for research.