Home 2017 Races Siena College/NY Times Poll: Northam 43%-Gillespie 40% (“Turnout, turnout, turnout”)

Siena College/NY Times Poll: Northam 43%-Gillespie 40% (“Turnout, turnout, turnout”)


Coming down the home stretch…tight race, just like we love ’em here in Virginia, huh? Heh. By the way, looking at the cross tabs here, one thing looks a bit odd: self-reported 2016 voters break 41%-39% for Clinton over Trump, when Virginia actually went by 5 points for Clinton. Regardless, the bottom line is it’s coming down to Get Out the Vote (GOTV) at this point, so…with a bit over two days to go, let’s do that!

New York Times Upshot/ Siena College Virginia Gubernatorial Poll:
Tight to the Finish: Northam 43%, Gillespie 40%
Gillespie Up 9 with Men; Northam Up 13 Points with Women

Loudonville, NY. Democrat Ralph Northam and Republican Ed Gillespie are locked in a tight race to be Virginia’s next governor. Heading into election day, Northam holds a narrow three-point lead, 43-40 percent, according to a New York Times Upshot/Siena College Research Institute poll of likely Virginia voters released today. By a small 43-34 percent margin, Virginians think the state is on the right track. While 39 percent of likely voters approve of the job President Donald Trump is doing, 51 percent disapprove, including a plurality of independent voters.

“This is a classic barnburner election that will have both  candidates and campaigns working hard until the polls close Tuesday night,” said Siena College Poll Director Don Levy. “Northam and Gillespie are both strong with their bases: Gillespie has the support of 88 percent of Republicans while Northam is supported by 89 percent of Democrats. Independents are evenly divided, giving Gillespie an ever-so-slight one-point edge, 38-37 percent.

“There is a traditional gender gap, with Northam leading among women by 13 points and Gillespie leading with men by nine points. Gillespie leads with white voters 48-37 percent, while Northam has a huge 79-4 percent lead with black voters,” Levy said. “Gillespie has a small three-point edge with voters 65 and older. Northam has a similar narrow lead among voters 35 to 64 and has a very big 51-20 percent lead with voters under 35. Northam leads big in NoVa and comfortably in the Richmond area. Gillespie has a wide lead in the west, while the central part of the state and Tidewater region are closely divided.

“Turnout, turnout, turnout. Whichever campaign does a better job of mobilizing their voters and getting them to the polls on Tuesday is likely to be the campaign celebrating Tuesday night,” Levy said.

  • DPVA Chairwoman Calls on Ed Gillespie to Renounce Steve Bannon’s Public Endorsement

    Bannon Says a Win for Gillespie Is a Win for The GOP’s Corey Stewart Wing
    Richmond, Va. — Last night, Steve Bannon publicly announced his support for Ed Gillespie, saying that “I do believe that Gillespie’s going to pull this thing out [and] it will be because of the underlying message of Corey Stewart and what he believes in, and the Trump voters in Virginia who are gonna turn out!”

    Today, Democratic Party of Virginia Chairwoman Susan Swecker released the following statement calling on Gillespie to repudiate Bannon’s endorsement:

    “If Ed Gillespie has any shred of decency left, he will immediately renounce Steve Bannon’s support — and make clear that white nationalists like Bannon have no place in Virginia. The truth though is Bannon’s public endorsement doesn’t comes as surprise. Bannon is just recognizing what Virginians have known for months: Gillespie is running an odious, Trumpian campaign that is spreading fear, division and hate across our Commonwealth.”

    “Growing up in Highland County, I know that nuts fall from the tree in the fall. So it’s not a surprise Steve Bannon landed on our Virginia soil this week. And Virginians are smart enough to know when a nut is a bad one.”

  • Kindler

    Nate Cohn explained why the margin for Clinton is tighter in this poll than it actually was in 2016 — this one uses a sadly realistic likely voter model for off-year elections that is older and whiter than the presidential.

    And there’s the rub: after knocking on doors five weekends now for Donte Tanner & the rest of the ticket in Centreville & Clifton, I’m amazed how many of the folks we must turn out — minorities & young people — have no idea what’s at stake here. Many are still undecided, not even sure if they’ll vote. We need to figure out how to break through to these folks, regularly educate them so they truly get it.

    • “We need to figure out how to break through to these folks”

      Not sure who “we” are, exactly, but…any suggestions?

      • Kindler

        Yes, I’m very intrigued by Sam Rasoul’s Democratic Promise concept of regularly helping constituents access government services. It reminds me of the Democratic organization in Chicago, where I grew up, in which the precinct captain would stop by regularly to see how things are going — not just around Election Day.

        Dems need to build long term relationships in such a manner with consituents, so they understand the value of the party, of voting and of government itself.

  • Brendan

    probably the best poll i’ve seen so far. hopeful the trump #s with independents is a good indication of how they break. for all the money and sacrifices in messaging that northam has spent to reach this group, kinda disappointing.

    Also personally disappointed in the number of never trumpers on the right who are seemingly okay w/ Gillespie, at least enough to vote for him, despite his disgusting appeals to the trump sludge. Haven’t seen a good estimate on how that’ll play in this race but think it’s worth +3-5 for Gillespie, relative to the clinton victory. Hard to tell how well that’s being captured in these polls.

    All that said, w/ these kind of top line poll numbers, it’s not how undecideds break but purely energy and motivation. Do irregular Dems have the level of energy to swamp the typical older/whiter electorate? GOTV has really ramped up, and appears to be the strongest yet in an off-year, but can only do so much to overcome the problems Kindler mentions.

    Who knows tho… Maybe Northam can get to 1.25 million or 1.3 million votes, which would likely bring us a HoD win, especially if Repub turnout remains under 1.1 million. Definitely a much higher ceiling for Dems. Curious to see how close they get.

  • Video: If you care about out-of-control partisan gerrymandering, vote Democratic on Tuesday in Virginia!