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So How Did the Pollsters, Predictors Do Last Night: Ranking from “A” to “F” (for “Fredericks?”)

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How did the pollsters do last night in Virginia? Here’s my ranking, from “A” to “F.” Keep in mind that the final result was Ralph Northam by 9 points over Ed Gillespie, Justin Fairfax by 5+ points over Jill Vogel, and Mark Herring 6.5 points over John Adams.

A-
Quinnipiac’s final poll had Northam up 9 points, which is exactly what he won by. Now, they could get “dinged” for their previously +17 outlier poll, but I’d say they redeemed themselves with the final poll. 🙂

B+
Christopher Newport University’s final poll had Northam up 6 points, with the one before that having him up 7 points. Not too shabby. Change Research, whoever they are, also had Northam up 6 points in its final poll.

B
Fox, of all people had Northam up 5 points in its final poll. Not bad. And Gravis Marketing, whatever that is, had Northam up 5 in its final poll. Washington Post/Schar was all over the place, so it’s dinged a bit for that, but its final poll of registered voters had Northam up 7 points and of likely voters up 5 points, so not too shabby.

C+
Emerson had Northam up 3 points. Upshot/Siena had Northam up 3 points. Meh and meh.

C
Monmouth’s final two polls had Northam down one and them up 2. Meh.

D
Republican Rasmussen had the race tied, 45%-45%, heading into election day. NOT!

D-
Republican/right-wing firms Optimus and The Polling Company (Kellyanne Conway’s former firm – lol) were both as bad you’d expect; each of which showed Northam DOWN by 3 point heading into election day. #FAIL Mon

F
By far the worst, most laughable poll of the cycle came from Hampton University, which had Northam down 8 points, plus a bizarre polling memo which falsely claimed to be the greatest pollster ever, pretty much, including (supposedly) the only pollster that predicted Hillary Clinton’s win in Virginia last year (in fact, pretty much EVERY pollster managed that!). Did I mention that this is a bizarre “polling” outfit?

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And now, for the person in a league of his own: far-right Virginia radio host John Fredericks, a former Trump co-chair and a Trump dead ender if there ever was one, wildly missed pretty much everything last night, despite claiming a “97%” track record of accuracy (hint: it’s not even close to that; flipping a coin would be much better). Nothing new for the guy who insisted, over and over again, that EW Jackson would NEVER get the 2013 GOP Lt. Governor nomination and that Trump would win Virginia and…but still, last night was a new low. For instance, Fredericks predicted that: a) “Ralph Northam has snatched defeat from the jaws of sure victory.”; b) “Democrat Justin Fairfax seems to be running on Democratic Socialist Workers Party platform…Extremists don’t win in Virginia. See Cuccinelli and Howell. Vogel romps.”; c) “The Republican Attorney General Association (RAGA) just gave Adams $2.2 million in the last week of the campaign – as a challenger. That’s a game changer. Adams is going to win this race.” Hahahahahahahahahahah….hahahahahahahahaha….on all counts. This crap was laughable on Monday, and it’s beyond laughable today.

But wait, there’s more: here’s the Trump dead ender on Virginia House of Delegates races:

“I predict the Democrats gain +1 seat, and epic fail for the DPV.”

“Subba Kolla (R) over John Bell (D) The revenge of Chris Lacivita.” (in fact, the Swift Boat guy and his client got annihilated last night)

“Hurst should win. Yost should lose. Pigs fly and if your grandmother had wheels she’d be a trolley car. Yost is a beast.  He wins again because people like him.” Nope. Yost got crushed.

“LeMunyon is Virginia’s version of the energizer bunny. He runs and runs and runs…and keeps winning a big bad blue district. Tip O’Neil was right: all politics is local.” Nope, LeMunyon got crushed.

Lingamfelter over Guzman: “The Communist Party USA needs a fresh candidate for President in 2020. That’s a better fit for Ms. Guzman than HD 31.” My god…just no.

“Take a nap, Greason wins again in a snooze-fest.” Nope, Greason got crushed.

“No roads for you! The Pilot’s editorial peeps are so silly. The Pilotloses again. Does anyone care? No. Ronnie V. romps.” Villaneuva went down – no roads for him? LOL

“Danica has run a very spirited race. But when she made the decision to make her Transgender transformation a centerpiece of her campaign, she traded off winning for trail blazing.” False, and also Danica romped last night.

“The Stolle Beach machine will get their vote out in droves, which helps put Holcomb over the top!” Nope. Holcomb is TOAST.

**********************

The country’s (world’s?) worst political pundit, Chris Cillizza, struck again earlier this week, with “Are Democrats blowing it in Virginia?” I mean, CNN of course is trash, and let’s just say that Cillizza fits right into the reeking pile of garbage over there.

 

  • Bye bye bad latte

    Politico reports that Badlatte might call it quits next year.
    Is that seat going D?

    • RobertColgan

      You mean he isn’t going to die in office ??……. his social conscience did years ago.

  • John Fredericks

    Thanks for spelling my name right! And that’s with a capital “F!”

    • Great, now how about ditching the 97% “accurate” b.s.?

      • John Fredericks

        Now it’s more like the Cleveland Browns!

    • For once I’ve gotta agree with conservative InsideNOVA editor Scott McCaffrey, who wrote this morning on his blog: “Conservative radio host John Fredericks should be written off as a prognosticator – he was out yapping in the days prior to the election saying that the GOP statewide ticket was going to win and Republicans were going to do surprisingly well in the House of Delegates races. Mmmmm, no.”

      • John Fredericks

        I’m glad my role was to finally bring You and Scott together! Glad to be part of the healing team! BTW, my preference for crow is baked or sautéed. And congrats to those who got this Tsunami right! Hats off to you all! John

  • C L

    I think national pundits generally get a D or F. They uniformly ignored the general results of the polls and, perhaps more importantly, the cross-tabs on groups with large sample sizes (white voters, NoVa and Tidewater). We kept getting told by pundits that Gillespie would** do better than Trump in the suburbs because he was a “better fit.” There was rarely if ever anything in the cross-tabs to support that. They consistently showed Northam doing well in NoVa and hitting 40% among white voters (I think something around 36-37% is the magic number for Dems in Virginia).

    I’m not saying numbers are perfect, but the sheer willingness to go off of their gut feelings while ignoring data was incredibly annoying (and that’s without them seeming to give much weight to the massive ground game — they’d often acknowledge it in passing).

    **I use the word “would” lightly here since a lot of them also posed their theories as questions or vague possibilities to make a statement (e.g., “Could Gillespie keep Trump’s margins downstate while improving on Cuccinelli’s NoVa performance?”, “Gillespie very well may do better than Trump or Cuccinelli in NoVa since he’s a better fit.” — which just turned out to be flat out wrong) rather than making an actual prediction they would be held to.

    • Agreed; in general, national pundits have absolutely no f’ing clue what they’re talking about when it comes to…well, tons of stuff, including Virginia politics. Yet they’re paid to blather, so they blather. Cillizza is one of the worst, but there are plenty of others just regurgitating and replicating others’ stupid “hot takes.” It’s a sad state of affairs.

  • ChupacabraAzul

    Do we know when absentee and challenge ballots will be counted?

    • The Donte Tanner/Tim Hugo canvass is going on right now…presume others are as well.

  • John Fredericks

    And for the record, Ben Tribbett nailed this to a dime on my show Tuesday predicting Ralph +9, Dem sweep and Dem + 10 HOD seats. So Tribbett gets an A++!

    • Suggestion: listen to Ben on both policy and politics…

      • John Fredericks

        He’s brilliant!