Home 2018 Elections POLL: How Many House Seats Will Virginia Dems Pick Up This November?

POLL: How Many House Seats Will Virginia Dems Pick Up This November?

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lowkell
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  • Andy Schmookler

    I hope, Lowell, that you’ll tell us your prediction on this. I really don’t know nearly enough about the various races, and I know you’re pretty well steeped in such knowledge as is available.

    So I’m not voting. But I hope it’s OK if I express here the basis of how I’d vote if I knew the particulars of the races. I believe that the Blue Wave that we’ve seen around the nation in recent months will still be just as powerful when we get to November.

    Which might mean that the Dems in general carry races in places where, in normal times, they would lose by less than 12-15 percent.

    Of course all kinds of events can intrude between now and then, affecting the political climate. These are not stable times.

    But if I had to bet — and please see what I just posted here on VB about this — Donald Trump’s conduct will become increasingly disgraceful and alarming, which I believe would magnify that Blue Wave.

    So, here in VA, I’d bet on Dems winning all seats that are R+(12 or less).

    • Given any kind of Democrat wave this November, we should be able to pick up VA-10. Given a strong wave, I’d add in VA-02 and VA-07. After that, we’ll see, but it will require a very strong blue wave and also strong Democratic candidates, possibly in VA-05 or VA-01.

      • Anthony Shifflett

        A realistic assessment in my view. Two, or three seats at best.

        • old_redneck

          I’ll take two or three.

          Right now it’s R-7, D-4.
          Pick up two = R-5, D-6
          Pick up three = R-4, D-7

          • Anthony Shifflett

            One here, another there. Pretty soon we’re at a majority!!!

      • Rick

        Who would you consider the strongest candidates in the 5th and 1st then?

  • Anthony Shifflett

    It’ll be option 2 or 3.

  • Kenneth Ferland

    3 is the most likely number but I think it will be cd10 + 2 of (cd1, cd2, cd5, cd7) and that the state/national party needs to invest in all of these to bring the 4 tough districts up to a 50/50 chance on each one so that we average out to three pick ups. If Virginia can do 3 flips then were on track for a strong house majority.

  • old_redneck

    On Sunday afternoon, March 18, VA-01 Democratic candidates appeared at a forum at the Lancaster Community Library in Kilmarnock sponsored jointly by the Lancaster and Northumberland Democratic committees. Sponsors expected around 40-50 to attend.

    When the crowd reached 100, the library manager opened an overflow room and piped in the forum via closed circuit TV. Head count at the end of the forum was 148 — three times the crowd that was expected.

    These lines got the biggest ovations:

    “African-American women won the election for a Democrat in Alabama.”

    “Rob Wittman has done nothing for the First District.”

    “Wipe out Wittman.”

    “I will hold town halls open to everyone, unlike Wittman who will not even release his schedule.”

  • DCStrangler

    Comstock is going to spend a small fortune this year, and a drive down Georgetown Pike is a pretty good indicator that she will have lots of money to do so.

  • notjohnsmosby

    I only see the 10th as a probable pickup with the 2nd heavily dependent on who the Democratic candidate is. The rest of the seats would require a fairly large Dem wave – like Dem +10 – to get close.