Roanoke College polling only gets a “C” from FiveThirtyEight.com, so I wouldn’t put a huge amount of stock in it. Also note that Roanoke College polling had Ed Gillespie up 8 points (!!!) over Ralph Northam in its October 25, 2017 poll (Northam went on to win by 9 points). And, if that’s not bad enough, Hampton U’s 11/2/16 poll had Trump up 3 points in Virginia (Clinton ended up winning by 5 points). So again, take their polls with a huge grain – hell, a pillar – of salt.
But for the record, here’s their latest, based on polling “556 potential Virginia voters.”
- By a 61%-31% margin, Virginians believe the country is on the “wrong track.” That one definitely seems reasonable.
- By a 53%-27% margin, Virginians DISAPPROVE of Trump’s performance as president, with another 17% “mixed.” Regardless of how the “mixed” break out, if these numbers are at all accurate, then Trump’s basically got no chance of winning Virginia next year.
- Gov. Ralph Northam clocks in at a 37%-29% (+8 points) approval rating, with 21% “mixed” and 14% “refused” (that’s weird). Northam’s numbers are up from 32%-39% (-7 points) in February 2019, but still WAY below the 54%-18% (+36 points) he enjoyed in August 2018.
- By a 36%-31% margin, Virginia potential voters say they’d vote Democratic for State Senate if the election were held today. Another 25% are “unsure” or “refused.”
- By a 38%-30% margin, Virginia potential voters say they’d vote Democratic for House of Delegates if the election were held today. Another 26% are “unsure” or “refused.”
- Top issues for Virginia potential voters are the economy, education, health care, gun control, discrimination and inequality, abortion policy and climate change.
- By a 40%-23% margin, Virginia potential voters believe that “stricter gun control laws are more likely to reduce crime and suicides” than “to prevent law-abiding citizens from protecting themselves.”