See below for some interesting graphics, courtesy of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington. Also, thanks to Sen. Scott Surovell (D-Fairfax/Prince William) for pointing this resource out to me; see his tweet, below. Here are a few key takeaways:
- Virginia has 34 days to go “until peak resource use on May 2, 2020”
- On that peak date, Virginia will need 3,435 hospital beds, 512 ICU beds and 276 invasive ventilators. Virginia will actually *have* 6,581 hospital beds (no shortage) and 329 ICU beds (a shortage of 183 ICU beds).
- Virginia has 31 days until “peak count of daily deaths,” which is projected at 32 deaths per day from April 29 to May 7. Projected deaths per day fall to zero on July 6 in this model.
- This model projects 1,543 total COVID-19 deaths to August 4 in Virginia.
- Currently, Virginia has not implemented a mandatory stay-at-home order, and travel has not been severely limited. However, other social distancing measures have been taken, including closure of schools and non-essential services.