Home 2020 Elections The Economist Model Rates Chances of Winning Virginia: Joe Biden 96%; Sen....

The Economist Model Rates Chances of Winning Virginia: Joe Biden 96%; Sen. Mark Warner 99%; Rep. Elaine Luria (VA02) 89%; Rep. Abigail Spanberger (VA07) 87%

Also: Rep. Jennifer Wexton (VA10) >99%; Cameron Webb (VA05) 28%; Qasim Rashid (VA01) 12%


With 41 days to go until Election Day 2020, The Economist went live this morning with its US Senate and House models, in addition to its model for the presidential race. Overall, The Economist has Democrats with a 67% chance of winning a majority in the US Senate (with 51 seats); a 99% chance of keeping their House majority (with 241 seats); and Joe Biden with a 97% chance of winning the popular vote and an 85% chance of winning the electoral college. As for Virginia specifically, see below – looking good for president (predicted Biden 55.2%-Trump 44.8%), US Senate (predicted Mark Warner 59%-Daniel Gade 41%), and also in VA02 (predicted Rep. Elaine Luria 55%-Scott Taylor 45%), VA07 (predicted Rep. Abigail Spanberger 55%-Nick Freitas 45% and VA10 (predicted Rep. Jennifer Wexton 61%-Aliscia Andrews 39%)…not so great in VA01 (predicted Rep. Rob Wittman 55%-Qasim Rashid 45%) or VA05 (predicted Bob Good 52%-Cameron Webb 48%), but let’s see if we can pull off an upset or two, at least in VA05. Oh, and of course, make sure you VOTE and absolutely take NOTHING for granted!



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