Home 2020 Elections Wason Center Poll of VA-02, Which Trump Won By 4 Pts. in...

Wason Center Poll of VA-02, Which Trump Won By 4 Pts. in 2016: Biden +9 Pts; Rep. Elaine Luria (D) +7 Pts.

Luria leads by 9 pts among those very/somewhat enthused to vote; early voters breaking nearly 3:1 for Luria


See below for a new poll, courtesy of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University, of Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District. Note that the 2nd CD is made up of Virginia Beach (63% of the district), York County (9.5%), Norfolk (9.1%), Accomack County (4.9%), Hampton (4.6%), James City County (2.6%) and Williamsburg (2.1%). In 2014, Ed Gillespie defeated Sen. Mark Warner in VA02 by 5 points (51%-46%); in 2016, Trump won the district by 4 points (49%-45%); but in 2018, Tim Kaine won it by 10 points (54%-44%). The district is represented in Congress by Rep. Elaine Luria (D), who won the seat in November 2018 by defeating then-Rep. Scott Taylor (R) by a narrow, 51.1%-48.8% margin.

With that background, here are the main results of the new poll, which are *very* encouraging for Democrats.

  • Rep. Luria leads Taylor by 7 points (50%-43%) among likely voters, which is *much* better than her 2.3-point margin in 2018.
  • Even better, “Among voters who say they are/were very or somewhat enthusiastic about voting, Luria leads Taylor by 9 points (52%-43%).
  • As for the presidential race, Biden leads Trump by 9 points (49%-40%), which is a 13-point improvement from Trump’s 4-point win in 2016. So that’s excellent news for Democrats.
  • Also worth noting: “Over 25% of voters have already cast their ballots, and early voters are tilting heavily Democratic, with Luria getting almost 3 votes to every 1 for Republican Taylor (70%-25%).”
  • Note the massive “gender gap,” with women breaking by 22 points for Joe Biden, and with men going by 5 points to Trump. Also note the racial gap, with African Americans going 83%-12% for Biden and whites going 45%-43% for Trump.
  • And: “Luria enjoys a +38 favorable/unfavorable rating (60%-22%), while Taylor is weighed down by a -5 favorable/unfavorable rating (44%-49%).
  • Finally: “The lingering election fraud scandal involving the 2018 Taylor campaign is weighing down Taylor’s bid to regain the seat he held for one term (2017-2019). Among voters who say the scandal is very or somewhat important to their decision, Luria leads Taylor by 48 points (71%-23%).”


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